The Importance of Mathematical Modeling in the Global

The Importance of Mathematical Modeling in the Global Climate Change Debate Jason Batts Department of Geosciences Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Va 24061 USA Projected temperature differences between 2080 – 2099 and 1980 - 1999 http: //www. aip. org/history/climate/GCM. htm Singapore 2012

In order to best ensure the quality of a particular climate model, scientists often validate their work in comparison to known data. Observed global mean near surface temperatures (black line) Calculated global mean near surface temperatures (yellow lines) Average calculated global mean (red line) http: //www. ipcc. ch/publications_and_data/ar 4/wg 1/en/faq-8 -1 -figure-1. html 58 different simulations 14 climate models

Many factors influence regional climates changes, which results in several variables for mathematical models. www. ipcc. ch

Most climate change models are based on a general circulation model, though the exact approach varies. Simplified GCM Atmospheric GCM Oceanic GCM Coupled Atmospheric-Ocean GCM www. noaa. gov

The Coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model is favored as it allows for inclusion of the most variables. Common models Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (Had. CM 3) Key model in IPCC Third Assessment Report Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model, version 2. x (GFDL CM 2. X) Key model in IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Ed. GCM en. wikipedia. gov