The impact of climate change on children Children

The impact of climate change on children Children and climate change conference Princeton, March 12 -13 th 2015 Simon Dietz, Ben Groom and Billy Pizer

Net Benefits of Mitigation (2 C) 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 2

Discounted Utilitarianism (DU) and the Social Discount Rate (SDR) SWF SDR � “Positive”: r 13/03/2015 “Normative”: d Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 3

Discounted Utilitarianism (DU) and the SDR with uncertainty SWF SDR Declining SDR with persistence 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) Lower SDR 4

Resource Scarcity and Dual Discounting E. g. Sterner and Persson (2008) SWF SDR Scarcer H, substitute C: lower SDR 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) Dual SDRs 5

Extensions and Alternatives to Discounted Utilitarianism 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 6

Prioritarian SWF Adler and Treich 2012, 2015 SWF SDR Priority for low well-being 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) Higher SDR (g>0) 7

Sustainable Discounted Utilitarianism Dietz and Asheim (2012) SWF SDR Coincides with DU for sustainable paths Zero weight in the present if unsustainable With catastrophic impacts, damages x 4 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 8

The ‘elephant in the room’: Population ethics (Millner 2012) 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 9

Average and Classical Utilitarianism (Millner 2012) Utilitarian SWF AU fails: “SDR” + axioms Utility Independence Existence independence Negative expansion principle CU better, but fails: ‘Repugnant’ conclusion: welfare higher for large subsistence population. 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 10

Alternatives? Utilitarian and Prioritarian Millner 2012, Fleurbaey and Zuber 2014 Critical Level Utilitarianism CLU better but: ‘very sadistic conclusion’ Doesn’t prioritise ‘lives worth living’ (u>0) Expected Prioritorian Equally Distributed Equivalent 13/03/2015 Population enters via distribution of well-being, u Uncertain population growth Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 11

Conclusion �CBA is a means to an end �DU: a particular welfare framework �DU can be adapted for some intergenerational issues �Beyond “meta ethics”: population, sustainability �Theoretical and practical issues for CBA of our children’s welfare 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 12

Thanks! Ben Groom Associate Professor in Environment and Development Economics b. groom@lse. ac. uk 13/03/2015 Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015) 13