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The Human Population and Its Impact Chapter 6 1. Clarify weebly stuff 2. Finish 1 -3 Notes 3. Introduce Shoe Project Due next Friday 4. Start Chapter 6 – History of human population 5. HW read 6 -2 to 6 -4 tonight 6. Quiz tomorrow 7. TEST Thursday, I think C. O. You’ll know human population has changed over time and if the Earth can sustain our rapidly growing population. L. O. You’ll get into small groups after taking some notes and discuss ramifications of current human population and if you agree or disagree with Malthus’ assertions.
Are There Too Many of Us? § Estimated 2. 4 billion more people by 2050 § Currently 7+ Billion people living • Earth reached that milestone October 31 st, 2011. § Are there too many people already? § Will technological advances overcome environmental resistance that populations face § Should populations be controlled?
Are There Too Many of Us? The World’s Most Typical Person (video) https: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=4 B 2 x. Ov. KFFz 4
Core Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? § Will growing populations cause increased environmental stresses? § Quick Group Discussion & Share-out. What environmental stresses might an increasing human populations cause? • • • Infectious diseases Biodiversity losses Water shortages Traffic congestion Pollution of the seas Climate change
6 -1 How Many People Can the Earth Support? § We don’t know. But…. • how long can we continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans? • without seriously degrading the life-support system for humans and many other species? Vegas, Baby, Vegas
§ Early Human Population • Anatomically Modern Humans appear in fossil record ~200, 000 years ago in Africa http: //6000 generations. wordpress. com/2012/11/09/out-of-africa-is-morphing-into-out-ofafricarabia-as-genetic-and-archaeological-time-lines-converge/
§ Early Human Population • About 70, 000 yrs ago Toba Volcano erupted in Indonesia. • Ash limited sun for nearly 6 yrs • Genetic Bottleneck suggests humans almost wiped out – DNA suggests we our existence to 40 breeding pairs! http: //www. npr. org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70 -000 -b-c
§ Early Human Population § Mostly hunter/gather populations existed before 10 KYA. • Populations were very small and had very little population growth. • Death rates and birth rates were both very high. • Catastrophic population crashes were also possible. § At about 10 kya – 8 kya, the population growth rate increased, why?
§ Early Human Population § “Neolithic Revolution” • Transition from hunter/gather to agrarian (farming) societies • With ag comes the end of nomadism. § Occurred through the development of cultivation of animals and plants § Occurred in many different regions of the World • Asia, Africa, North America, Melanesia, etc
§ Early Human Population – • The Fertile Crescent (Birthplace of Ag)
§ Early Human Population – • The Fertile Crescent of North America • The Four Corners (AZ, NM, CO, UT)
Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed § Reasons for human population increase • Movement into new habitats and climate zones • Early and modern agriculture methods • Control of infectious diseases through • Sanitation systems • Antibiotics • Vaccines
Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed Year 1 AD-1750 1830 1960 1975 1987 1999 2011 (2050) Human Population 800, 000 1, 000, 000 2, 000, 000 3, 000, 000 4, 000, 000 5, 000, 000 6, 000, 000 7, 000, 000 8, 900, 000 Yrs to an Additional Billion People 100 yrs 30 yrs 15 yrs 12 yrs
Human Population Growth Continues but It Is Unevenly Distributed § Population growth in developing countries is increasing 15 times faster than developed countries § By 2050, 97% of growth will be in developing countries § Should the optimum sustainable population be based on cultural carrying capacity?
Global Connections: UN World Population Projections by 2050
Science Focus: How Long Can the Human Population Keep Growing? § Thomas Malthus (economist) and his take on population growth: 1798 • Proposed humans growing exponentially & food couldn’t keep up. • Proven wrong… so far § Humans have altered 83% of the earth’s land surface § Can the human population grow indefinitely?
Science Focus: How Long Can the Human Population Keep Growing? § Thomas Malthus’ beliefs – Continued § Population growth leads to poverty when the population increases faster than the food supply. § Overpopulation leads to lower wages and a labor surplus, further exasperating poverty § Malthus believed that the Poor should incorporate “moral restraint” to curve their high reproductive habits. § Poverty is to be blamed on the Poor. It’s the Poor's own fault that they are poor. § Malthus was skeptical that the Poor where capable of doing this § (Social Darwinism), and thus the Poor would remain poor. § He was opposed to welfare because it might encourage more poverty.
Science Focus: How Long Can the Human Population Keep Growing? Neo-Malthusians Two of the more outspoken, and controversial Neo-Malthusians are § Paul Ehrlich: The Population Bomb § Seen as a “Doomsdayer” , proposes that unless immediate action is taken to control overpopulation, series crisis's will ensue. § “We can no longer afford merely to treat the symptoms of the cancer of population growth; the cancer itself must be cut out. Population control is the only answer. The operation will demand many apparently brutal and heartless decisions. The pain may be intense. But the disease is so far advanced that only with radical surgery does the patient have a chance of survival”, quote in Schmidtz and Willott (2002), Environmental Ethics; What Really Matters, What Really Works, Oxford University Press, New York, pg 265. § Garrett Hardin: “The Tragedy of the Commons” § Author of the “Lifeboat Ethics. Quoting Goldfarb (2000) in his book Notable Selections in Environmental Studies, Second Edition, Dushkin-Mc. Graw Hill, Guilford, CN, ) • “[Lifeboat ethics is] a world model in which the developed, affluent nations that control and use most of the world’s resources are in a lifeboat while the struggling developed nations are floundering in the surrounding ocean. He concludes that it is folly to try to rescue all the swimmers and suggests that the ethically appropriate strategy is one of triage, by which the ‘haves’ permit the poorest and least developed of the ‘have nots’ to drown in order to prevent the entire boat from sinking” (pp. 39 -40).
Science Focus: How Long Can the Human Population Keep Growing? § A contrasting academic camp to the Neo-Matlhusians are the Cornucopians. • Technological advances (e. g. in agriculture) and expansion of the market economy will mitigate any problems presented by overpopulation. • If there are more people, then we will discover/invent new ways to feed them. Technology will help us better utilize our resources, cure diseases, etc. § – Prominent among the Cornucopians is Bjørn Lomborg.
NATURAL CAPITAL DEGRADATION Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs Reduction of biodiversity Increasing use of the earth's net primary productivity Increasing genetic resistance of pest species and disease-causing bacteria Elimination of many natural predators Introduction of potentially harmful species into communities Using some renewable resources faster than they can be replenished Interfering with the earth's chemical cycling and energy flow processes Relying mostly on polluting and climate-changing fossil fuels Fig. 6 -A, p. 124