The Human Capital Review HCR HUMAN CAPITAL CORE

The Human Capital Review (HCR) HUMAN CAPITAL CORE ANALYTICS DECEMBER 2020

Situating Human Capital in the Strategic Country Engagement SCD and CPF with a strong human capital focus WBG portfolio informed by core analytics, CPF, & Regional HC Plan Synergistic HC orientation in WBG, partner activities Improved HC policies, more effective investments BUILDING MOMENTUM HUMAN CAPITAL ANALYTICS NEW WAYS OF WORKING Human Capital Index (HCI) What’s blocking future productivity? What’s preventing HC utilization? HCP Ministerial Conclaves Regular check-ins with ministers on human capital-related issues HCP Network Knowledge Exchanges Peer-to-peer learning across ministries in HCP countries Human Capital Review Comprehensive look at the state of HC in a country Human Capital PEIR Public expenditure & institutional analysis for selected HC outcomes HCI Compass Intermediate progress on HCI indicators In-depth data HCI disaggregation Service Delivery Indicators HCP case studies How did successful countries do it? Regional HC Plans Results-focused plans specific to regional context HC Policy reform Concerted effort towards larger HC focus in DPOs Cross-GP collaboration Led by program leaders Private sector engagement Closer engagement with IFC, MIGA 2 Improved human capital outcomes

Human Capital Review (HCR): What It Is and What It Is Not What is NOT a Human Capital Review? What is a Human Capital Review? HCR is an analytical product that uses new or existing data and accepted analytical methods to: • Present an overview of key human capital endowments and challenges in a country • • • Identify priority human capital outcomes that require improvement Offer country-specific, multisectoral policy options to improve these outcomes Identify areas for further analysis HCR is NOT: • A sector review that omits the role of other sectors in improving human capital outcomes • A thematic study with a narrow focus on one outcome of interest that does not present a broader view of the status of human capital in a given country What will it look like? HCR will typically involve a twopart assessment of human capital: • A landscape analysis presenting relevant national HC patterns and trends • “In-focus” thematic assessments of selected HC outcomes relev ant for the specific country context offering concrete recommendations for improvement What are its main elements? HCR leverages the main elements of the HCP approach: • • • Focus on human capital outcomes Emphasis of multi-sectoral analysis (“whole-ofgovernment” and “whole-ofsociety” contributions to human capital) Quest for actionable solutions to resolve bottlenecks holding back human capital acceleration

HCR: The Building Blocks Scope: Assessing factors across all relevant sectors that facilitate or limit a country’s ability to build, protect, and employ the human capital of its people Outcomes: Examining data at the national and/or sub-national levels, reviewing spatial and temporal trends of key human capital outcomes across the lifecycle Determinants: Identifying facilitators and bottlenecks of key human capital outcomes at the level of policies, institutions, financing arrangements, service delivery systems, and demand-side factors at the household and societal levels Policies Institutions (formal and informal) Financing (public and private) Demand-side Factors Service Delivery 7

HCR: Possible Analytical Questions What does the human capital landscape look like? Are human capital outcomes equitable across geographical areas, income levels, genders? Over time? Trends and Patterns How strong are the policies, laws & regulations, governance & accountability structures, and implementation capacity? Enabling Environment Financing Service Delivery Measurement Demand Side Is the spending on human capital adequate, efficient and equityenhancing in this country context? Are the services adequate in their scope, coverage, quality and resilience? Are the data & monitoring systems adequate? What are the patterns of user behavior and service utilization? Do the beneficiaries have a voice in policy design and implementation? Are they aware of their rights and entitlements? Possible tools and data sources: • HCI, WDI, household surveys • HCI Compass, PHCPI, SABER ASPIRE • PEIR, BOOST, ASPIRE • Poverty assessments, Jobs diagnostics, SDI, ASPIRE, PSIA • EMIS, HMIS, CRVS, SABER • Household surveys, focus groups, community scorecards, ad-hoc studies

Framing an Outcome-oriented HCR: Possible Approaches Lifecycle Approach The review could systematically assess how human capital is built, protected and utilized along the life cycle spanning early childhood to old age. The approach may be suited to identify relative priorities among different stages of the life cycle (e. g. , unemployed youth as an urgent problem) as well as to assess whether existing government policies adequately address all of the HC needs within and across age groups. - Examples: Eswatini Integrated HD Framework Note (June 2020), ECA HD assessments (ongoing) Geographic Approach The review could build on geographic disaggregation of available data on HC outcomes / determinants to depict spatial dimensions of human capital. The approach would be suited to identify lagging geographic areas for prioritized interventions as well as areas doing relative well for comparative analysis. - Examples: Sri Lanka HC Development Report (September 2019), Brazil HCR (ongoing) * These approaches are not mutually exclusive, and this list is not exhaustive. 9

Pipeline: Possible HCRs Identified To Date v Brazil Human Capital Review (P 174674) v Equitable Human Capital Development in Kazakhstan (P 174879) v Liberia Human Capital Assessment (P 174929) v Pakistan Human Capital Review (P 175626) v ECA HD Assessments More information at the Human Capital Review HCP intranet page Are there other planned/ongoing multisectoral HCRs missing from this list?

Annexes

Annex 1: Available Data and Information Resources The HCR leverages existing diagnostics for a particular country and complements them with new data and the application of established (e. g. , poverty assessments, jobs diagnostics) or new (e. g. , HCI Compass, PEIR) analytical tools. Human Capital Index (HCI): https: //www. worldbank. org/en/publication/humancapital#Index Bureaucracy Lab: https: //www. worldbank. org/en/research/dime/brief/Bureaucracy-Lab HCI Compass: https: //openknowledge. worldbank. org/handle/10986/33671 Global Education Policy Dashboard (GEPD): https: //radqa. worldbank. org/epd/ Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (PEIR): https: //worldbankgroup. sharepoint. com/sites/wbsites/Human. Capital/Pages/pc/Oper ations-Guidance-and-Examples-01142020 -102957/PEIR-01302020 -150153. aspx Poverty Assessments: https: //www. worldbank. org/en/topic/measuringpoverty Jobs Diagnostics: http: //datatopics. worldbank. org/Jobs. Diagnostics/index. html Household Surveys: Service Delivery Indicators (SDI): https: //www. sdindicators. org/ World Development Indicators (WDI): http: //datatopics. worldbank. org/worlddevelopment-indicators/ BOOST Open Budget Portal: https: //www. worldbank. org/en/programs/boost-portal Systems Approach for Better Education Results (SABER): http: //saber. worldbank. org/ o Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS): https: //www. worldbank. org/en/programs/lsms o Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS): https: //mics. unicef. org/ o Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS): https: //dhsprogram. com/ UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS): http: //uis. unesco. org/ Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity (ASPIRE): https: //www. worldbank. org/en/datatopics/aspire WHO Global Health Observatory (GHO): https: //www. who. int/gho/database/en/ Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA): https: //www. worldbank. org/en/topic/poverty/brief/poverty-and-social-impactanalysis-psia IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO): https: //www. imf. org/en/Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlookdatabases Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI): https: //info. worldbank. org/governance/wgi/ ILOSTAT Labor Statistics: https: //ilostat. ilo. org/ Commitment to Equity (CEQ): http: //commitmentoequity. org/

Annex 2: Sample Theories of Change A. Theories of change to improve human capital outcomes What does it take to: • Reduce under-5 mortality • Reduce stunting and give children a head start in the early years • Improve student learning • Build, protect & deploy the human capital of girls and women • Help vulnerable households invest in, protect, and use their human capital B. Non-HD contributions to human capital outcomes Complementary investments need to be aligned across sectors • Contributions of Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Package for Country Teams • For example, over 300, 000 children die every year from diarrhea, partly due to the lack of safe and reliable water and sanitation. 17

CHILDREN REACH THEIR FIFTH BIRTHDAYS #1 WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO REDUCE Things UNDER-5 MORTALITY? Essential facility based curative care provided (PHC and Referral system) Preventive and promotive services expanded Key environmental risk factors addressed • Providing essential maternal and newborn care (with special attention to high-risk pregnancy and newborns) • Improving quality of services for common childhood illnesses • Expanding immunization coverage • Promoting immediate and exclusive breast feeding • Promoting adequate complementary feeding • Promoting family knowledge on danger signs, care seeking, etc. • Promoting good hygiene practices • Putting in place health and nutrition surveillance system • Increasing access to improved sources of water • Improving access to sanitation services • Providing clean sources of energy (indoor stove) • Reducing ambient air pollution • Improving waste disposal practices • Addressing disease vectors • Promoting environmental safety Delivering on the above requires a Whole of Government Approach A responsive healthcare system (public and private) Demand side interventions Human Leadership Health Medicines Educated Health Empowered Resources and Information and Household and Social Financing for Health Governance Systmem Technology Community Protection Girls/Women Reducing risks and raising awareness Transport Water and Sanitation Energy Urban Media and Planning CSOs

CHILDREN REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL (with the physical, social and emotional capacities to learn, innovate and compete) #2 WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GIVE CHILDREN A HEAD START Things IN THE EARLY YEARS? CHILDREN ARE HEALTHY & WELL NOURISHED, ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 1, 000 DAYS • Good nutrition & health status of women before/during pregnancy and while breastfeeding • Exclusive & continued breastfeeding • Appropriate feeding + micronutrients for young children • Immunization & Rx of childhood illnesses • Good hygiene practices CHILDREN RECEIVE EARLY STIMULATION & LEARNING OPPORTUNITIES • Positive and engaging interactions with parents/caregivers • Opportunities for age-appropriate and play-based learning through quality preschool programs CHILDREN ARE NURTURED AND PROTECTED FROM STRESS • Avoid household and community stressors (neglect, violence, displacement, household shocks) • Positive emotional connections with parents/caregivers • Supportive discipline Delivering on the Essential Interventions Above Requires Efforts Across Sectors Quality, Diverse and Affordable Food Quality Health Care and Reproductive Health Services Water And Sanitation Reduced Family Leave and Quality, Educated and Income Poverty Affordable Childcare Empowered Women Safety Nets and Response to Shocks

STUDENTS ATTAIN MORE YEARS OF SCHOOLING WITH BETTER LEARNING OUTCOMES LEARNERS are prepared and motivated to learn #3 WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO IMPROVE LEARNINGADJUSTED Things YEARS OF SCHOOLING? • Early child education • Nutrition • Stimulation TEACHERS at all levels are effective& valued • Meritocratic profession • Structured teacher’s career • Continuous, school based professional development SCHOOLS CLASSROOMS are a learning space are safe & inclusive spaces • Effective curriculum • Books and supportive technology • Coaching & structured pedagogy • All are taught at the right level • Eliminate all types of school violence & discrimination in schools • Students with any disability receive the right service • Minimum infrastructure EDUCATION SYSTEMS are well managed • Principal’s career • Clear mandates & accountability • Merit-based professional bureaucracy • Political commitment to all children learning Examples of Key Multi-Sectoral Contributions Transport for educators and students Water/ Sanitation Electricity In schools Community Health & Cash+ transfers Nutrition—ECD briefs/practices to support and beyond (e. g. , Gender) education Digital/ICT for teaching & management Governance/ civil service reforms Resilience

WOMEN AND GIRLS HAVE EQUAL AGENCY, ACCESS AND OPPORTUNITIES TO BUILD, PROTECT AND DEPLOY HUMAN CAPITAL COUNTRIES ACHIEVE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONS AND DIVIDENDS EDUCATED girls attend and learn in safe, inclusive schools #4 WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO EMPOWER GIRLS AND WOMEN? EMPLOYED ENHANCED ACCESS women have access to skills, productive jobs to health, contraception • Coverage and quality of a • Girls in school longer continuum of care: • Accessible & affordable schools reproductive, maternal, and • Quality teaching supports child health services, learning nutrition • Completion through secondary • Diversified funding for quality school contraceptive programs with • Cash+ programs improved supply, pro-poor education access, build skills strategies and method choice • Laws prevent exclusion of • Adolescent girls and high pregnant girls from school fertility countries and regions prioritized • Gender equality in STEM • Access to job & life skills training • Capital and skills for female entrepreneurship • Increased women’s earnings, productivity property rights, especially in agriculture • No gender segregation in occupational sectors • Quality, affordable, gender balanced childcare EMPOWERED girls and women • Gender based violence prevented and penalized • Reduced child marriage • Behavior change, communication builds agency, informs norms & choices • Reformed social protection enhances access to insurance, safety nets • No legal, legislative biases Delivering on the Above Requires Inter-related Efforts Across Sectors, with Men and Women Community Engagement: Civil Society, Religious Leaders Education: preprimary through adult, remedial Health Care, Reproductive Health Services Credit, Financial Services Active labor market policies Media, Communications Laws and Regulations

BETTER HUMAN CAPITAL OUTCOMES FOR POOR HOUSEHOLDS Reduced poverty, vulnerability, inequality * Increased investment in household enterprises * Increased savings Increased use of health services * Higher birthweights * Lower morbidity * Better nutrition * Reduced stress, depression Higher enrollment * Higher attendance * Better grade progression * Higher completion rates * Better test scores Better cognitive/non-cognitive skills * Better labor market outcomes #5 HOW SOCIAL PROTECTION IMPROVES HC OUTCOMES FOR THE POOREST? SOCIAL PROTECTION INCOME SUPPORT (cash, in-kind, vouchers) • Goods: More/better food, water, soap, medicines, books • Services: More healthcare and education • Time use: Reduced child labor, allowing more and higherquality caring hours • Socio-emotional functioning: Reduced stress and depression, greater bandwidth for parenting • Prevention of risks: Diversified income generation sources, better employment opportunities “PLUS” (information, services directly provided, nudges or conditions to use other services) • Parenting: Breastfeeding, nutrition education, early childhood stimulation • Healthcare: pre-natal, attended deliveries, vaccines, weight checks, growth monitoring • Education: preschool, primary, secondary • Training: Job Skills, adult literacy, socio-emotional skills, entrepreneurship skills

NON-HD CONTRIBUTIONS TO HUMAN CAPITAL OUTCOMES

TRANSPORT • Electrification of health facilities (vaccine storage, nocturnal deliveries, power for equipment, retention of staff) • Connected schools and universities • Internet access for students (skills accumulation) DEPLOYS human capital and increases its returns • Mobility (increased employment opportunities, access to jobs, shift towards more productive sectors) esp. important for women. • Demand for engineers, urban transport planners, construction workers • Electrification of households (more home -based work opportunities • Demand for renewable energy skills • Digital access (better employment opportunities, esp. for youth) • Demand for digital literacy skills PROTECTS human capital • Road safety (less death, disability) • Safe transport (labor force participation for women) • Lower air pollution (clean transport, electric mobility) HOW DOES CONTRIBUTE TO HUMAN CAPITAL? DIGITAL • Access to education and health services • Provision of health supplies • Food security (lower food prices, diversity of food BUILDS human capital INFRASTRUCTURE ENERGY • Lower air pollution (renewable energy, clean cooking) • Financial inclusion, women’s empowerment, health services, social protection Human capital-sensitive planning across physical and digital infrastructure

WATER BUILDS human capital HOW DOES • Better irrigation and drainage increase access to nutritious foods and thus better health and education outcomes • Improved water storage and quality expands supply and availability to households SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTE TO HUMAN CAPITAL? • WASH in schools and health care facilities yields better health and education outcomes AIR QUALITY • Improved household air quality leads to improved health outcomes (e. g. reduced morbidity and mortality) and education outcomes (e. g. increased enrolment, attendance, attainment, test scores) DEPLOYS human capital and increases its returns • Better water management can boost productivity and incomes in the agricultural/food sector (e. g. crops, fisheries, livestock) • Improved air quality increases worker productivity PROTECTS human capital • Safely managed drinking water & sanitation reduce child stunting, as well as morbidity and mortality among both children and adults • Resilience built via early warning systems, better forecasting, nudging avoidance behavior, institutional rapid response systems • Early warning systems and climate smart planning increase resilience AGRICULTURE • Increased food availability, diversified consumption, reduced food loss lead to better household nutrition • Improved zoonotic disease protection and food safety lead to better health Access to food, health and basic education due to increased income lead to skills development • Better nutrition and increased income allow access to health and education services, increase productivity and ensure household resilience