THE GRAND ENERGY TRANSITION Robert A Hefner III
THE GRAND ENERGY TRANSITION Robert A. Hefner III
ROBERT A. HEFNER III • Founder of GHK Exploration • Early proponent of deregulating natural gas • Worked on some of the earliest natural gas test wells • Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society of London • An active member of many other academic groups in the field of geology or petroleum, including many in China and Singapore
CH. 1 THE BEGINNING • Civilization as we know it cannot function without using massive amounts of energy • GDP, inflation, employment and income are all directly tied to energy usage • Humanity is on the brink of both an energy and climate crisis
CH. 2 THE GRAND ENERGY TRANSITION • The Grand Energy Transition (GET) is based on the position that humanity will advance towards better fuels based on their state of matter. • This will result in a progression from solid fuels, to liquid fuels, to gas fuels • Energy gases (which include natural gas, solar power, wind power, and hydrogen cells) will be the fuels that humanity eventually settles upon. • This will happen naturally due to economic decisions, but can be slowed down by governmental policy • It is better if this happens sooner rather than later as solid and liquid fuels tend to be very polluting • The GET began in the 1700 s when coal replaced wood, and then oil partially replaced coal • The GET now requires that humanity abandon coal and oil in favor of natural gas (as well as figure out hydrogen cells)
CH. 2 THE GRAND ENERGY TRANSITION • Coal has outlived its usefulness and should be abandoned as a power source as soon as possible • Oil has also reached the point where it could be phased out, even if it did carry civilization to its greatest heights yet • This is hard for our system to do due to infrastructure inadequacies and industrial interests • Problems with oil include: • • • Contributions to pollution and climate change The finite nature of oil Price fluctuations Its production must be militarily policed, costing the US millions and losing it allies abroad The flow of wealth from the US to oil producing countries creates an imbalance of wealth
CH. 3 HOW IT WORKS • There are three major factors to energy transitions: • Governmental intervention • Leadership • Individual behavior The last is by far the most influential • In the past, using coal and oil had made the most sense to the individual consumer due to their low cost and the ease with which they could be obtained • Policies in opposition to what is convenient to consumers, and therefore in opposition of the GET waste money and slow own the transition • Coal was already starting to fall out of favor in 2008 • Consumers are starting to want an energy source that is both more efficient and cleaner than coal and oil • The world is already transitioning, and when it reaches the gaseous energy economy a new age of prosperity and industry will begin • The GET has predicted which fuels will be moved towards and which will be moved away from. The gases are much more hydrogen dense than the carbon rich solids and liquids, which Hefner posits will soon be seen as intolerably polluting
CH. 4 RISE OF THE AGE OF ENERGY GASES • • • Oil peaked in 1973, declining from 48% to 36% of the global market Coal has declined from 80% to 28% Natural gas is still rising, and is now (2008) at 24% of the market The gas phase of the GET is happening, but too slowly There is a natural trend towards decarbonization in fuel supplies Wood has 10 C per H Coal has 2 C per H Oil has roughly 1 C per 2 H Natural Gas has 1 C per 4 H The more hydrogen the cleaner the fuel As the GET happens the fuel gets cleaner After the 1978 oil crisis, the usage of natural gas for power generation was halted, causing about 10 billion tons of CO 2 to be released into the atmosphere that otherwise would not have been if natural gas had been invested in naturally • The US is now overly dependent on coal because of this, and is having difficulties transitioning to cleaner fuels. • The environment was (and will continue to be) hurt by this decision as well
CH. 5 HOW THE 1970 S CHANGED AMERICA • • • • In 1976, Exxon estimated that only 287 trillion cubic feet of natural gas remained in the US Today, this number is roughly 2000 Tc. F (Hefner believes it could be as high as 3000) The smaller number is one of the things that convinced policymakers to place restrictions on natural gas Natural gas suffered from an unreasonably low price ceiling which made its production sporadic and unreliable Natural gas was so economically inefficient to produce that its users often had shortages, but not for a lack of gas Exxon, Mobil, and other large gas companies coordinated with the Federal Energy Administration to ensure that natural gas would not properly be invested in. Hefner fought this specifically and attended 18 hearings in which he fought the restrictions They still passed: “natural gas had it” –John O’Leary, administrator of the FEA Many geologists were still not convinced by the oil companies’ numbers, as they were based off of wells not looking for natural gas 500000 jobs were lost More coal plants were built Homes were heated using electricity instead of gas Natural gas is still making up for this massive setback
CH. 6 NATURAL GAS – THE BRIDGE FUEL TO OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE • Natural gas is the only ‘green’ fuel source that could be exploited quickly enough to displace other fuel sources and meaningfully reduce CO 2 emissions. • Natural gas does not release mercury, arsenic, sulfur, or particulates when burned. • Natural gas reduces CO 2 emissions by 50%, and if carbon capture and sequestration becomes plausible on a large scale it would be essentially as clean as wind or solar. • Gas replacing oil would result in a 90% elimination of automobile pollutants, while prolonging the engine lives of the cleaner cars • There are very few gas powered cars in the US however • The natural gas grid to fuel these vehicles is already in place • Natural gas is currently the only scalable alternative to oil in the US • Policies in the future should encourage the usage of natural gas • The US has found an unexpectedly large amount of gas within its borders, many other countries will as well • Producing gas is generally less environmentally destructive than producing oil • No one country has a particularly large concentration of natural gas, so once the technology to produce it spreads, there will be no OPEC like groups
CH. 6 NATURAL GAS – THE BRIDGE FUEL TO OUR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE • China, India and Russia (among many countries) will have the opportunity to continue using coal or transition to natural gas • Hopefully they won’t fall into the same trap as the United States
CH. 7 NATURAL GAS ABUNDANCE • Natural gas reserves were frequently underestimated because companies did not generally look for natural gas, they instead found it alongside oil. • Only once it was viewed as a desirable product by itself did accurate measurements surface • Chesapeake energy, led by Aubrey Mc. Clendon, an outsider to the field, took a different approach to gas reserves and revolutionized the industry • Natural gas has been detected on other planets and may even be used for space travel • The same processes that created these deposits on other planets may also have created large, unconventional reservoirs on Earth • Wells have been drilled down 6. 7 km into granite and natural gas was found. It is not yet known if it is economical to produce • Even 9 km deep wells and a Soviet 12 km well found gas where it may have been created nonbiologically.
CH. 7 NATURAL GAS ABUNDANCE • • • Nonbiological gas and microbial gas may significantly increase the known reserves of natural gas The ocean also contains massive amounts of hydrated natural gas It’s just a matter of getting to it The geologic conditions to create gas are much more common than those that create oil Peak oil is not going to coincide with peak natural gas, if it is ever met Gas extraction has been so successful that the market crashed
CH. 7 -8 NATURAL GAS ABUNDANCE • • Nonbiological gas and microbial gas may significantly increase the known reserves of natural gas The ocean also contains massive amounts of hydrated natural gas It’s just a matter of getting to it The geologic conditions to create gas are much more common than those that create oil Peak oil is not going to coincide with peak natural gas, if it is ever met Gas extraction has been so successful that the market crashed Hefner has been a proponent of acknowledging the true amount of natural gas reserves since the 70 s, and he’s been continuously correct, even when he was flying in the face of established oil companies
CH. 9 THE REAL INCONVENIENT TRUTH • The three intolerables: • Global climate change • Economic imbalances and risky economic bubbles • War and geopolitical turmoil • • • There is substantial evidence that CO 2 is being released into the atmosphere at a dangerous rate This could potentially render human life as we know it unsustainable One of the main causes of the American trade imbalance is oil Oil is also one of the biggest causes of war and violence in the word today The usage of oil must be curtailed for these reasons The government must also halt subsidies of oil Without these subsidies, coal and oil would be much less attractive to consumers Some European nations have done this, even taxing oil This is not popular, even though the consumer pays for the subsidies anyway through taxes
CH. 9 THE REAL INCONVENIENT TRUTH • Costs of continued reliance on coal and oil: • • America’s wars in the Middle East The 500 billion annually sent to foreign oil producers The possible end of the US dollar as the most important currency Maintaining the petroleum strategic reserve Pollution Health problems Diminished agricultural productivity on tainted lands The three intolerables
CH. 10 LA, A CASE STUDY • • • LA has a pollution problem Traffic is constantly backed up and emitting pollutants Thousands of homes are inefficiently cooled But they’re all connected to the natural gas grid If the homes and cars ran on natural gas, the air would be cleaner and less fuel would be wasted (in the time since this book was written, much of the pollution was cleared up due to more efficient emission standards, and NG heating is more common)
CH. 11 WHAT WON’T WORK, WHAT WILL WORK • Won’t • • Coal to liquid Coal to gas Oil shales and tar sands Biofuel Nuclear Hydro and tidal • Will • • • Hydrothermal Natural gas Wind Solar Hydrogen and fusion
CH. 12 POLICIES TO ACCELERATE THE GET • • • Subsidize natural gas powered vehicles Allow for small scale, local natural gas generators Encourage natural gas power generation in any way possible Build no new power plants that pollute more than a natural gas plant Decouple ownership of the grid from energy producers to ensure competition and innovation • Use CCS • Drill more natural gas • Tax CO 2 production • If implemented, these would accelerate the US on the path to energy independence and the age of energy gases
CH. 13 -14 THE AGE OF ENERGY GASES • • • It’s coming More and more natural gas is used each day Natural gas will give way to hydrogen The winners of the 21 st century will be those who embrace the transition If the US and China work together to accomplish this, the world would follow The realization of the GET would be one of the most important events in human history.
- Slides: 21