The Global Support Programme GSP Virtual training to

The Global Support Programme (GSP) Virtual training to select the most appropriate modelling tool to assess mitigation actions Policy-Related Overall and Sectoral Projections of Emission Curves and Time Series Tools (PROSPECTS+) Introduction and its applications 30 – 31 March 2021 7: 00 to 10: 00 (GMT) GSP SEA Network for Enhancing Climate Transparency Eng. Buddika Hemashantha International Expert/Asia Network Coordinator, GSP CEO, Climate. SI

CONTENTS 01 Advantageous and Disadvantageous of PROSPECTS+ 02 Structure of the PROPSECTS+ tool 03 Data requirements, availability and validation 04 Sector-level approaches 04. 1 Demand side 04. 2 Supply side 04. 3 Scope of emissions

What is PROSPECTS+ ? • Bottom-up projection of a country’s future emissions, considering user-defined sector-level developments of activity and intensity. Emissions scenarios Impact on Sector – level activity & Intensity Policies Social - economic changes market developments

Advantageous and Disadvantageous of PROSPECTS+ Advantageous The bottom-up approach allows direct assessments of policy impacts Allow direct assessments of the interaction of different sectoral developments (mostly energy-related) Relatively less raw data requirments Disadvantageous Users need to collect data on every sector and understand all sectors Combining different sources leads to potential inconsistencies

Structure of the PROPSECTS+ tool Navigation/Wizard Results Data Validation - allowing the user to check on consistency of values and trends Help the user navigate thought the tool when collecting data and create scenarios. (transport, buildings, cement and iron & steel user can select the simplified version) Country Summary - displays main global indicators and key outputs from the calculation sheets Historic data Input – References - list of all sources Input – Historical – list of IEA data and input in worksbook historical data Input – IEA Data – IEA database (Energy balance and combustion emissions factors) Workbook - Historical Data - contains primary historical (non-IEA) data for every sector Evaluate emission in different policies scenarios Scenarios Pivot. Table – Allows to export all the inputs and results into one sheet Calculation Historic and future indicator values combined together and developed the emissions pathways Input – Create scenarios – Upto 9 different scenarios can create Workbook – Scenario – Upto 9 different pathways can create

PROSPECTS+ Structure of Calculation Assumptions Input Data (Historical Data) Indicators Calculation Indicator's projections Emissions calculation Policy evaluation (Predicted)

Indicators used in PROPSECTS+ 01 activity metrics • Activity metrics refer to the level of emission-related activities: they include quantities such as electricity generation, steel production, cement production, etc 02 intensity metrics • Intensity metrics are measures of the amount of energy or emissions resulting from one unit of activity. 03 aggregate metrics • Aggregate metrics are combinations of the two, resulting in time series of e. g. , overall energy demand, overall electricity demand, or overall emissions from a sector.

Data requirements, availability Input Data 1. Historical data for a list of indicators in each sector. 2. Historical and projected data for economy-wide indicators • GDP • Population size 3. The user needs to define the scope of the scenario(s) and current policy scenario. 4. The user needs to input numerical data on the assumed development of the relevant sector level indicators in each sector.

Data requirements, availability Data Availability Whenever explicit data corresponding to the required input values is not available, user can use different approach to derive an alternative value as follow. • “Proxy”(Correlated variables) variables can be used Ex - some countries to estimate the waste generation per capita from data on GDP/capita. • certain relative indicator related to the required input data is the same, or similar, as in another country for which data are known. (Ex. energy intensity in buildings, floor space per capita) • Simplified approach can be used (Required less data)

Data requirements, availability Output data The tool produces a variety of sector-level and economy-wide data for the country Sectoral electricity related emissions Aggregated country-wide emissions under the scenarios Emissions categorized by energy-related CO 2 emissions, process-related CO 2 emissions, and non-CO 2 emissions Final energy demand by sectors An overview of several relevant sector-level activity and intensity indicators Emissions by category Electricity - Own use 20 Electricity - Transport 15 Electricity - Buildings 10 Electricity - Steel 5 0 200 150 100 50 0 Electricity - Cement Energy-related CO 2 emissions Process CO 2 emissions 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 25 250 Emissions (Mt. CO 2 e/yr) Electricity - Exports Emissions (Mt. CO 2 e/yr) 30 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Emissions (Mt. CO 2 e/yr) - Losses Electricity - by demand. Electricity sector Emissions (electricity broken down to sectors) 300 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050 • • • Electricity Heat Transport Buildings Steel Cement Other industry Oil & gas

Demand side Forestry Agriculture 7 Animal-related emissions Rice-related emissions Other land-related emissions Waste Municipal solid waste Wastewater 8 9 Buildings • Residential • Commercial 6 Transport Passenger transport Freight transport International aviation Shipping 5 Demand side 1 4 2 Cement industry 3 Oil and gas Other industry • Heavy industry • Light industry Steel industry Heavy Industry Chemicals and petrochemicals • Non-ferrous metals • Transport equipment • Machinery • Mining and quarrying Light Industry - Food and tobacco • Paper, pulp and print • Wood and wood products • Construction • Textile and leather • Non-specified

Supply Side Power supply Fuel mix Emission intensity Import as percentage of demand Exports as percentage of generation Own use as percentage of generation Losses as percentage of generation Coal Natural gas Oil Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Biofuel Wind Solar Marine Waste Others Total Coal Natural gas Oil Waste Biofuel Non-fossil % % % % Mt CO 2 e/ TWh Mt CO 2 e/ TWh % % Heat supply Fuel mix Own use as percentage of generation Losses as percentage of generation Coal Natural gas Oil Waste Biofuel Nuclear Others Total % % % % %

THANK YOU ! Eng. Buddika Hemashantha International Expert/Asia Network Coordinator, GSP CEO, Climate. SI E-mail: buddika@climatesi. com SEA Network for Enhansing Climate Transparency GSP SEA Network for Enhancing Climate Transparency