The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern
The Global Ocean Observing System and the Southern Ocean 1
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September 2005 Shepherd et al, Science, 2003 3
THE EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION 4
ZIMBABWE MAIZE YEILD AND EL NIÑO 5
EL NIÑO AND HEALTH RISKS: MALARIA 6
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) 7
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION AFFECTS ZOOPLANKTON (CALANUS) 8
Circum-Antarctic Wave Red = warm; blue = cool; grey = ice edge T = wind stress, stretching and compressing ice extent 9
GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System is: n A sustained, coordinated international system for gathering data about the oceans and seas of the earth n A system for processing the data to enable the generation of beneficial products and services n The research and development upon which such products and services depend for their improvement 10
Observing the Global Ocean n Sustained observations of the Ocean are required for: n Understanding global change n Predicting climate n Protecting and managing marine ecosystems n Complying with international agreements n Protecting life and property on the coast and at sea n Providing forecasts of its future states for a variety of uses and users. 11
Policy Drivers n n n Meeting IOC and WMO Resolutions. Meeting Agenda 21 and WSSD requirements. Abiding by UNCLOS. Straddling and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks. Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). UNFCCC (Climate Change). Biodiversity - Jakarta Mandate Ramsar - Wetlands Stockholm - Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) Regional Conventions (UNEP; OSPAR, etc) GEOSS and the G 8. 12
Operational System Sustained, Routine, User-Driven, End-to-End Products GOOS Analysis, Modelling Data Communications & Management Monitoring 13
Schematic of the vertical stack of observations from satellites to seabed that would be necessary to inform an i. AOOS study focused on the present 14 state and future fate of the Arctic perennial sea-ice.
The Ten-Year Plan for In-situ Observations 2000 2001 2002 2003 Tide Gauges 40 40 45 45 Surface Drifting Buoys 807 671 779 810 Tropical Moored Buoys 77 77 79 79 Ships of Opportunity 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 55 80 86 86 86 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 87 90 94 99 99 99 Number of moorings 29 32 36 41 41 High resolution and frequently repeated lines occupied 24 26 200 310 544 Reference Stations 1 2 6 7 10 Coastal Moorings 0 0 15 40 14 16 18 20 250 250 0 1 30 2000 Argo Floats Ocean Carbon Network Dedicated Ship Time System Evaluation Total System Number of buoys 83 23 26 Operational GPS/DORIS Stations 3000 3000 1000 2000 Number of floats 29 29 Number of flux moorings 80 120 150 150 Moorings with climate sensors 24 32 36 38 40 40 40 Number of flux sites/lines, One inventory per 10 years 250 430 670 700 760 820 820 Days at sea (NOAA contribution) 1 1 3 4 6 7 9 10 10 Product evaluation and feedback loops implemented 34 40 44 48 77 88 94 99 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 14 16 System % Complete 15
WE CAN NOW OBSERVE THE SEA SURFACE GLOBALLY & SYNOPTICALLY. 16
We have limited ability to observe beneath the surface of the ocean. 6, 316 BATHY & TESAC reports collected in real time during December, 2000. 17
Argo will cover the global oceans with 3, 000 profiling floats. 18
2154 Argo floats by 24 Nov 2005 19
Drifting Buoy Programme 20
The Global Sea-level Observing System (GLOSS) 21
Antarctic Peninsula Warming • Annual mean temp increase 3 °C in the last 50 years the largest warming in the SH. • Sea ice decrease. • Precipitation increase. • Strong ENSO linkages. • Changes in water masses on the continental shelf. • What are the contributions of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing? 22
The link to El Niño Upper Tropospheric Height Anomalies Associated with El Nino Events Rossby Wave connection The PSA signal is less robust than the PNA because of the strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies 23
0. 17°C warming between 1950 s-80 s at 700 -1100 m Double the global depth Ocean rate; Concentrated in ACC; Matches SH atmosphere; Could influence sea ice 24 Gille, 2002
Warming of Weddell Sea WDW Warm Deep Water flowing into and out of the Weddell Sea has warmed by about 0. 3 C since the mid-1970’s. (Robertson et al. , 2002) 25
Atlantic freshwater changes fresher saltier fresher “… suggest links to global warming and possible changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Earth. ” 26
Regional change Changes in winter sea ice duration (Parkinson 2002 Ann Glaciol 34, 2002) Antarctic Peninsula region. One of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet 27
Circumpolar distribution of krill Euphausia superba Atkinson et al (2004) 28
Biodiversity Change Declining krill population Increasing salps Atkinson et al, 2004 29
Southern Ocean CO 2 (red = sink) 30
Ocean acidification: Fossil CO 2 is invading the ocean ATLANTIC PACIFIC INDIAN 31
Southern Ocean Circulation 32
Southern Ocean Observing System Hydrographic Sections Rintoul et al CLIVAR/Cli. C/SCAR SO Implementation Panel 33
Under-Ice Observing System HAFOS (Fahrbach) Moorings Surface Drifters Under-Ice Floats 34
Thermohaline Circulation links Asia Antarctica 35
Antarctica and the Global Climate System (SCAR) Use: Ø deep and shallow ice cores, Ø satellite data, Ø global and regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models Ø meteorological and oceanic data Assess: • role of ENSO in modulating Antarctic climate; • recent climate variability; ; • climate change over the next 100 years; • how climate change in the Antarctic influences conditions elsewhere IPY: Ø test models and high-low latitude climate links; Ø carry out a major bi-polar shallow ice drilling programme. 36
GODAE GLOBAL OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION EXPERIMENT Objective: practical demonstration of real-time, global ocean data assimilation for operational oceanography To apply state-of-the-art ocean models & assimilation methods for: -- short-range open-ocean forecasts -- boundary conditions for coastal forecasts -- initial conditions for climate forecast models To provide global ocean analyses and re-analyses to improve our: -- understanding of the oceans -- assessments of the predictability of ocean systems -- the design & effectiveness of the global ocean observing system 37 The ocean observing system for climate - St Raphael, October 1999
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For PDF version, google “PRB AON“ Polar Research Board U. S. National Academy of Sciences 39
AON Essential Functions (i. e. , essential to all participants) 40
Thank you 41
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