The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals Strong Implications

The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson

The EGG Project (aka the Global Consciousness Project) International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: Field. REG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?

Homepage http: //noosphere. princeton. edu Berger: Web Design Magic Buttons Status Day Sum Results Extract Primary Links Menu at Bottom

The technology is only now available Electronics, Computers, Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history

A Random Event Generator (REG or RNG)

How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random source Each trial is the sum of 200 bits

The binomial distribution of 1000 200 -bit trials, compared with Theoretical normal distribution expected

Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)

When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes. - - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950

A Real-Time Display (Bierman)

Here we see the combined data for a whole day, from 48 eggs

We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviations Correlation Tilts … Variance Spreads

For most of the formal predictions We specify a “Standard Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi = (mi-m)/s Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (Szi)/N 1/2 Composite Z is squared for c 2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Zs 2 – 1 or c 2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both

Cumulative sum of c 2 - its expectation May show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs

Major disasters that engage us powerfully Often correlate with big deviations

Context explorations: Six hours of data Around the beginning of bombing in Kosovo Cumulative deviation of Zs 2 or c 2

The Pope’s 6 -day pilgrimage to the middle east: An occasion of hope for resolution of differences

Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG

We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times

An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means Model Prediction Weak Replication

A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores Sum of zi 2 -1 across eggs is c 2 with N df Equivalent to variance s 2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction

Y 2 K New Year 1999 -2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT

New Years 2000 -2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

New Years 2001 -2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5 -Min Smoothing Window

The destruction of the World Trade Towers Sept 11 2001 A 50 -hour trend followed the attacks

Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom

Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11 The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG network Pseudorandom clone data

Shoup: examining a larger context Comparing Sept 11 vs four months of days

Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11 Structure where there should be none

Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11 Measure Probability estimate Comparison standard Composite deviation 0. 003 Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation 0. 0002 Student t: 400 days Device variance peak 0. 0009 Permutation: control p = 0. 756 Autocorrelation 0. 001 60 control days: p > 0. 05 News correlation 0. 002 Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0. 30 Time series: 365 days

Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years

What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done

Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Sharpen and focus our questions Aim for theoretical understanding Capture insight about creative mind Consider evidence that we are one Contribute to better future for culture

We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? -- Parker Palmer, educator http: //noosphere. princeton. edu