THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme

THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, The University of Adelaide Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne 27 October 2004

Outline of Presentation • Introduction • How do populations age? • Key aspects of demographic ageing in Australia • Why does ageing vary in local areas? • Patterns of ageing in metropolitan areas • Patterns of ageing in non metropolitan areas • The future of ageing in Victoria • Some implications • Conclusion

What is Ageing The individual level The population level - numerical growth of the 65+ - growth as a proportion of the population

Why is Australia’s Population Ageing? • Fertility is low (TFR = 1. 78) • Mortality of the older population is decreasing - added more than 10 years since 1947 - added more than 5 years to 50+ since 1971 • Immigration

Key Aspects of Ageing in Australia • Doubling of numbers 65+ in next 25 years • Doubling of proportion aged 65+ • Changes in characteristics • Changes in spatial distribution

Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population Number by Age Year 15 -64 65+ as % 15 -64 2003 13, 344, 685 2, 546, 423 19. 1 2011 14, 532, 900 3, 155, 600 21. 7 2021 15, 172, 300 4, 443, 400 29. 3 2031 15, 348, 100 5, 741, 000 37. 4 Annual Growth Rate (%) 2003 -11 1. 07 2. 72 2011 -21 0. 43 3. 48 2021 -31 0. 12 2. 60

Annual Additions to Workforce (Access Economics) Now: 170, 900 in single year 2020 -2030: 125, 000 in entire decade

Influence of the Baby Boom Generation Age Distribution of the Population Source: ABS, 1999, 7

Qualitative Differences of Cohorts Older Baby Boomers • Different attitudes to working at older ages • More healthy • More living by themselves • Different housing aspirations • More ethnically heterogeneous • Different health problems • Different living areas • Fewer children • Higher education • More mobile • Better off economically but more unequal • Higher expectations

Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age (5): 2004 – 2010; 2020 (Series B) Source: Jackson 2004

Positive Economic Impacts • Create demand for locally delivered and labour intensive care and services • Local spending of transfers • 55+ - 21% of population, 39% of wealth

Intergenerational Report Projected Population Size for Selected Age Ranges Source: Costello, 2002, 5

Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP) Source: Costello, 2002, 59

Projection of Fiscal Pressure Source: Costello, 2002

Australia: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 1901 -2001 Source: Australian Censuses 1901 -2001 and ABS 2000 a

Victoria: Trends in the Growth of the Aged and Total Populations, 1947 -2001 Source: ABS Censuses

Victoria: Dependency Ratios, 1947 to 2001 Source: ABS Censuses

Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Melton - East, SLA with lowest per cent aged 65+ Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Queenscliffe, SLA with greatest per cent aged 65+

Two Processes by which Communities’ Older Population Grows or Declines • Migration in or out • Ageing in Place

Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Section of State, 1991 and 2001 Source: ABS 1991 and 2001 Censuses

Victoria: Age-Sex Distribution of Population, 1996 and 2001 Source: Australian Censuses 1996 and 2001

Victoria: Growth in the Population in the Dependent Age Groups, Actual 1947 to 2001 and Projected 2006 to 2051 Source: ABS Censuses 1946 to 2001 and ABS Projections Series B

Victorian Statistical Divisions: Percent Share of Total and Aged Population, 2001 Source: ABS Census, 2001

Victorian Statistical Divisions: Comparison of Average Annual Growth Rates in Total and Aged Populations, 1991 -96, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS Censuses, 1991 -2001

Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Statistical Division, Number and Percent 2001 and Growth 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Censuses

Victorian Statistical Divisions: Age Sex Pyramids, 1996 and 2001 Melbourne Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent of Population Aged 65+ Source: ABS 2001 Census

Melbourne Statistical Division: Total Population Aged 65+ Source: ABS 2001 Census

Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent Growth Rate of Total Population Aged 65+, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Melbourne Statistical Division 2001 and 2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

Victoria: Metropolitan Area, Percent Aged 75+, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

Victorian Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Trends in the SLA Growth in Aged 65+ and Total Population, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Melbourne Statistical Division: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Victoria Metropolitan and Non Metropolitan Age Sex Structure, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 65+, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 75+, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

Victorian Non Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Patterns of Distribution and Growth Aged and Total Population by SLA, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Barwon SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Western District SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

Central Highlands SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996 -2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

The Future • Projections are quite accurate • Older people are the least mobile • Good basis for Planning

Projections of Victorian Population Source: ABS 2001 Census and ABS Projections, Series B

Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001 -2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001 -2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011 -2021 Source: DSE 2004 Projections

Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011 -2021 Source: DSE 2004 Projections

Local Implications • Challenges • Opportunities

Ageing at the Community Level • Changes quite predictable • Change can be different to the State as a whole • Change can be very rapid • Older people relate more to local area than other groups • Many of needs are met at the community level

Issues • Mismatch of location of services and location of next generation of aged people. • Mismatches in types of services and perceptions of future generations. • Increased levels of inequality in next generation of older people • Increased loneliness in next generation • Inappropriateness of living contexts

Conclusion • Ageing in Australia is manageable • There is a period of slow growth in demand • Need to plan interventions now • This needs to be at the community level as well as state and national levels.