The Future of Wireless Dr Hamdy Ellaithy Vodafone

The Future of Wireless Dr. Hamdy Ellaithy Vodafone Egypt 6 th Annual Private Sector Cooperation Meeting In the Arab Region December 2007

DSL performance sets us The world goes broadband UK Broadband Penetration VDSL 2 50 Mbps ADSL 2+ 25 Mbps ? ADSL 2 8 Mbps ADSL 1 Mbps 2 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 ADSL 2 Mbps HSDPA 7. 2 Mbps HSDPA 3. 6 Mbps C 2 Confidential

Terminal capability is raising the stakes … the physical embodiment of Moore’s Law Mobile Internet Camera + Personal navigation MP 3 Increasing dependency on wireless broadband for a compelling user experience TV Increasing multimedia functionality & services Full WWW capabilities now driving Web 2. 0 innovation on the mobile platform …but coupled closely with the PC activating device and enabling upgrades i. Phone also driving awareness of Mobile Internet… 3 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Spectrum is again on the agenda The Old World § Shortage of spectrum § Heavily regulated – usage defined by regulators § Allocation by “Beauty Contest” § Barrier to new entrants A New World has emerged Licensed and Unlicensed Opportunities on horizon “ 3 G extension band” at 2. 5 2. 69 GHz “Digital Dividend” at 470 -860 MHz – Can we get coordination in Europe? • Allocation by auction • Auction income causes governments to “find” more spectrum, reducing shortage of supply • Gradual move to lighter regulation – _ Spectrum “rights” may permit change of use _ Spectrum may be traded If spectrum is divided between too many, it becomes useless!! 4 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Wireless broadband - contenders & timelines 2006 HSPA 2007 HSDPA 3. 6 Mbps 2008 HSDPA 7. 2 Mbps 2009 2010 HSDPA 7. 2 Mbps HSPA + ? HSUPA 1. 4 Mbps LTE Mobile Wi. MAX Rev C Specification process Complete ~ Q 4 07 802. 16 e-2005 ratified Q 4 ‘ 05 5 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc Test specifications & pre-commercial trials R 1. 0 Wave 1 available Q 1 ’ 07 Specification Complete ~Q 2 ’ 07 Joint proposal July ’ 06 HSUPA 5. 7 Mbps R 1. 0 Wave 2 available Q 4 ’ 07 Available 2009/2010 Mobile Wi. MAX R 2. 0 2009/2010? Performance requirements Define RAN architecture EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Radio performance comparison – spectral efficiency • Charts are a measure of spectral efficiency based on the aggregate site throughput (assuming three sectors per site) • Expressed as bits/sec/Hz/site • 10 MHz overall system bandwidth in all cases • All three systems offer similar performance once Wi. MAX gets to “Wave 2” stage (Q 1 08) • “Intel vision” will be driven as a performance target within the latest IEEE 802. 16 m standard – Vodafone will engage in this process 6 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Peak data rate Mbps Radio performance comparison – peak rates 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Downlink peak Uplink peak HSPA "Rev C" 5+5 MHz FDD LTE Wave 1 Wave 2 10 MHz TDD, 3: 1 DL: UL ratio • Peak rate can be a misleading measure of system performance. In reality, users are unlikely to achieve these data rates across a meaningful area except if small cells are deployed 7 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

How many users can be supported? 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 _ Real time video streaming _ Mobile office _ Web browsing Number of Mobile office or www users per cell • Key assumptions HSPA 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 • Profile of data usage – three examples considered: HSPA+ Wave 1 LTE Wave 2 Number of streaming video users (@ 256 kbps) per cell HSPA (Rx div, Eq) HSPA+ (MIMO) LTE Mobile Wi. Max Wave 1 Mobile Wi. Max Wave 2 8 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc Video (256 kbps) 14 17 36 38 56 Video (1 Mbps) <1 <1 1? <1 1 -2? _ Typical www browsing model with >90% of users receiving page in less than 4 seconds. Mean page size approx 25 k. B. _ Mobile office e-mails / file transfer generates 75 MB in 8 hour working day = 21 kbps _ Video streaming is variable bit rate, but averages 256 kbps or 1 Mbps per stream. 5% outage rate. _ Only downlink has been considered _ All technologies using 10 MHz spectrum (5+5 FDD, 10 TDD). Wi. Max has asymmetric ratio (3: 1) in favour of downlink. Mobile Office (75 MB/8 hrs) or browsing 120 150 310 330 490 EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

But more spectrum equals more users – Sprint has upwards of 60 MHz in key markets 2000 1600 1200 Number of Mobile office or www users per cell 800 400 0 30 MHz N=3 10 MHz N=1 Wave 2 250 200 150 Wave 2 Number of streaming video users (@ 256 kbps) per cell 100 50 60 MHz N=3 • Going from N=1 to N=3 significantly reduces interference. This boosts sector throughput (x 2 approx. ) and improves availability peak data rates. Wave 2 60 MHz N=3 30 MHz N=3 10 MHz 0 Coverage plots illustrate peak downlink data rate with N=1 and N=3 frequency reuse 9 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Other approaches to wireless broadband: Mesh Wi. Fi • >300 municipal broadband networks are planned or deployed in the U. S. metro areas using mesh Wi. Fi. Now starting to appear in Europe. A “service for the community” – plus vertical applications for municipals • Inexpensive access points (using 802. 11) wirelessly linked using licence exempt spectrum. • The technology provider space is crowded but Tropos claim to own 80% market share… • No device subsidy, plus subsidised “base sites” / backhaul can drive down the overall cost. • The technology works to some extent but the business case has yet to be proven Vodafone R&D technology trials Explored WLAN based multi-hop relay systems, but with mixed success. Coverage remains a challenge, and rapid re-routing destroys performance Other trials showed good throughput but very slow routing Can we get both together? 10 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Two routes to the wireless future IT Community Telecom Community IEEE 802. 16 LTE Computers (with Communication) • Sell goods, subsidise services • Broadband bit pipes • Best effort • Internet architecture • TDD radio technologies • 11 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc • (Smart) Phones • Sell services, subsidise goods • Value added services • Reliable and secure • Telecoms architecture / interworking • FDD radio technologies EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Industry Balance – China Will Play a Big Role Long Term Evolution + Clear choice in Europe ? Needs US support ? Diverse spectrum choices - No commercial orders likely for some time 12 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc + Commercial order in US + Clear view on spectrum ? Traction in emerging markets - Tough play in Europe EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

es cc A IP Multi-Services network Services Environment Today es s Yesterday Horizontal Network (multi-services) A cc Vertical Networks (single service) Content WLAN Fixed Data Net Fixed Telephony Mobile Content Services Access Transport, Switching & Access Networks 13 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Deployment Challenge 14 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

The coverage challenge – what kind of site? • Vodafone study aiming at comprehensive dense urban coverage with 1 MB/s uplink estimated required site density: _ 10 Macro /km 2 – impractical? _ 150 lamppost /km 2 • Lamppost network could use simpler, smaller equipment and less spectrum BUT • Big challenge to deliver backhaul Macro Lamppost The backhaul challenge • Backhaul options – DSL? Fibre? Microwave Mesh? • Need a flexible, resilient, high capacity solution allowing rapid deployment The biggest challenge in deploying broadband networks will be delivering cost-effective backhaul 15 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Femtocells Metro. Zone “Base stations” deployed in the home Subscribers deploy their own coverage network deployment better tailored to subscriber demand. Very low power (~20 m. W initially) Residential Standard 3 G UE 3 G Access DSL 3 G HSPA / Wi. Fi Access VAP Modem The Vodafone Network DSL Backhaul Provision takes - DSL to Customers Premises 16 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Take-aways 17 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential

Points Raised • New breeds of base stations – femto cells, microcells, relaying nodes • Convergence of telecommunications and the Internet • Ever more personal and tactile terminals • New players from the Internet community with lessons to learn • New technology – OFDMA instead of CDMA • Multiplicity of access technologies • New frequency bands – 2. 6 GHZ and UHF • Vodafone playing a greater role in determining which technologies will dominate • China • Greater responsibility for use of spectrum 18 © 2007 Vodafone Group plc EMF Workshop, 4 th September 2007 C 2 Confidential