The Future of Extreme Weather Dr Jeff Masters

The Future of Extreme Weather Dr. Jeff Masters Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc. http: //www. wunderground. com

Education: University of Michigan B. S. in Meteorology, 1982 M. S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis: “A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol” Me Ph. D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: “Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones”

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990 Publications: • Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft • A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert • Wind Measurement From Aircraft • Flying Into the Eye of a Hurricane • Meteorology at Brockport

My Hurricane Hugo flight: http: //www. wunderground. com/education/hugo 1. asp

Will Hurricanes Increase in Frequency and Intensity?

Costliest U. S. Hurricanes of all time 1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $133, 800, 000 2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $40, 000, 000 3. Ike (TX/LA/MS)* 2008 2 $27, 000, 000 4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $17, 100, 000 5. Rita (LA/TX) 2005 3 $17, 100, 000 5. Charley (FL) 2004 4 $16, 500, 000 6. Ivan (FL/AL) 2004 3 $15, 400, 000 7. Hugo (SC) 1989 4 $15, 300, 000 8. Frances (FL) 2004 2 $9, 900, 000 10. Agnes (NE U. S. ) 1972 1 $8, 602, 500, 000 *Ike did an additional $4. 4 billion in damage as an extratropical storm

• Expect a 5% increase in hurricane winds per °C of ocean warming (Emanuel, 2005). • Expected increase in SST by 2100: 1 -2 °C. • Hurricane wind speeds should increase by 510%. • Difference in wind speed between a Cat 3 and Cat 4: 15%. • Thus, major hurricanes in 2100 should do 1. 5 - 3 times more damage than they do now.

The U. S coast is very vulnerable to sea level rise

Sea level rise will lead to increased storm surge damage • 1910 -1920: NJ coast was exposed to high water levels from extreme storms less than 200 hours per year. • Early 1990's: Coast was exposed to high water from storms of the same magnitude 700 to 1200 hours per year. • No increases in storm intensity or frequency that • might account for the increasing high water levels. • Conclusion: Increase in storm surge exposure of the coast was due to sea-level rise of 1 foot over the 80 -year period (Zhang et al. , 1997)

Are Tornadoes Increasing in Frequency and Intensity?

Borden and Cutter, 2008

2010: A Year of Incredible Weather Events Hurricane Igor as seen from the International Space Station

Coldest January-February in Florida since at least 1937

January 2010: Strongest winter storm on record wallops Southwest U. S.

Snowmaggedon: February 2010 41 killed, $2. 4 billion damage

Winter Storm Xynthia 63 killed, $3 billion damage

Brazilian Tropical Storm Anita

Warmest and wettest March in Rhode Island history

Rio de Janeiro floods, April 2010 246 killed, $14 billion damage

May 2010 Tennessee floods 31 killed, $1. 5 billion damage

Cyclone Phet: 2 nd strongest ever in Arabian Sea 44 killed, $ 0. 8 billion damage

Tropical Storm Agatha hits Guatemala 317 killed, $1. 1 billion damage

China summer floods and landslides 4245 killed, $51 billion damage

Monsoon floods cause worst natural disaster in Pakistan’s history; 1780 killed, $43 billion damage

Russian heat wave and drought 15, 800 killed, $15 billion damage

Hurricane Igor: Newfoundland’s worst hurricane in memory 4 killed, $ 0. 2 billion damage

Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in Bay of Campeche 22 killed, $5. 6 billion damage

Cyclone Giri, strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Myanmar 157 killed, $ 0. 4 billion damage

Super Typhoon Megi: 8 th strongest tropical cyclone in world history 69 killed, $ 0. 7 billion damage

October 22, 955 mb super-cyclone: Strongest non-coastal storm in U. S. history

Hurricane Tomas: latest hurricane on record so far south 41 killed, $ 0. 6 billion damage

Floods cause worst natural disaster in Colombia’s history 300+ dead, $5 billion damage

Queensland, Australia floods 20 killed, $10 – 30 billion damage

January 2011: Rio de Janeiro flood Deadliest natural disaster in Brazil’s history 900+ killed, $1. 2 billion damage

January 2011: 100 -year flood in Sri Lanka 43 killed, $0. 5 billion damage

2010: A year of remarkable climate events Arctic sea ice extent, Sep. 19, 2010, 3 rd lowest on record

2010: Earth’s warmest year in history

2010: Earth’s wettest year in history

Snow covers the U. K. , January 7, 2010 Winter of 2009 – 2010: most extreme Arctic Oscillation pattern in the 145 -year record leads to severe winter in Europe and Eastern U. S. , but Canada’s warmest and driest winter ever

A strong El Niño and a strong La Niña in the same year

Amazon’s 2 nd 100 -year drought in 5 years

2010: Greenland’s warmest year in history

Greenland’s Petermann Glacier calves 100 -square mile ice island

Is the weather getting more extreme?

The National Climatic Data Center’s Climate Extremes Index (CEI): 1. Percentage of U. S. with max temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 2. Percentage of U. S. with min temperatures much below normal and much above normal. 3. Percentage of U. S. in severe drought and with severe moisture surplus. 4. Percentage of U. S. with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1 -day precipitation events. 5. Percentage U. S. with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and without precipitation. http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/oa/climate/research/cei. html

Is U. S. weather getting more extreme? • Yes. NOAA (Gleason et al. , 2008) concluded that the percentage of the U. S. seeing extreme temperatures and precipitation has generally been increasing since the early 1970 s. • These increases were most pronounced in summer. • No trends were noted in winter. • 4 of the 10 most extreme years in the past century occurred since 1996.

Sixteen Potential $10 billion+ U. S. Weather Disasters of the Next 30 Years

$10 billion+ U. S. Weather Disasters Since 1980 Rank Disaster Year Deaths Damage (2007 dollars) 1. Hurricane Katrina, LA/MS/AL/FL 2005 1833 $133, 800, 000 2. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1988 7, 500 $71, 200, 000 3. Midwest/Eastern Drought 1980 10, 000 $55, 400, 000 4. Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA 1992 26 $40, 000, 000 5. Midwest Floods 1993 48 $30, 200, 000 6. Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS 2008 112 $27, 000, 000 7. Hurricane Wilma, FL 2005 35 $17, 100, 000 8. Hurricane Rita, LA/TX 2005 119 $17, 100, 000 9. Hurricane Charley, FL 2004 15 $16, 322, 000 10. Midwest Floods 2008 24 $15, 000, 000 11. Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL 2004 57 $15, 400, 000 12. 30 -State Drought 2002 0 $11, 400, 000 Source: http: //www. ncdc. noaa. gov/img/reports/billion/disasters 2009. pdf

16) Pacific Northwest Extratropical Storm Probability: 20% Damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm

15) Northeast U. S. Extratropical Storm Probability: 40% NYC La. Guardia Airport after the November 1950 Nor’easter

14) Southeast U. S. Hurricane Probability: 80% Hurricane Floyd (1999) hits North Carolina; $7. 4 billion damage

13) Southeast U. S. Drought Probability: 60% Lake Lanier, Georgia in October, 2007

12) Texas Hurricane Probability: 80% 1900 Galveston Hurricane damage

11) New Orleans Hurricane Probability: 60% New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, 2005

10) Tampa Bay Hurricane Probability: 30% Bayshore Drive, Tampa FL, after the 1921 Hurricane

9) EF-5 Tornado hits major city Probability: 10% Greensburg, Kansas after the May 2007 tornado

8) Upper Mississippi/Missouri River Flood Probability: 90% Waterloo, Iowa during the June 2008 flood

7) New England Hurricane Probability: 40% Rhode island Yacht Club during Hurricane Carol, 1954

6) Midwest Drought Probability: 90% Texas Drought, 2006

5) Miami Hurricane Probability: 60% Miami Beach, 1926 Hurricane

4) California/Southwest U. S. Drought Probability: 90% San Bruno, California Fires, June 2008

3) Lower Mississippi Flood causes failure of the Old River Control Structure Probability: 40% Old River Control Structure on the LA/MS border at normal water

2) California ARk. STORM Flood Probability: 30% June 4, 2004 levee breach in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

1) Catastrophic Geomagnetic Storm Probability: 30% X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record

Transformer at Salem Nuclear Plant fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989

A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U. S. power system lasting years

Predictions for the 2011 hurricane season

Seasonal Predictions, December 2010: Dr. Bill Gray: TSR, Inc: Climatology: Since 1995: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes 15. 6 named storms, 8. 4 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes

Since 1995—number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes 5 El Niño years: Average: 11, 5, 3 6 La Niña years: Average: 14, 9, 4 5 Neutral years: Average: 18, 10, 5 1997 2002 2004 2006 2009 8, 3, 1 12, 4, 2 15, 9, 6 10, 5, 2 9, 3, 2 1995 1998 1999 2000 2007 2010 19, 11, 5 14, 10, 3 12, 8, 5 15, 8, 3 15, 6, 2 19, 12, 5 1996 2001 2003 2005 2008 13, 9, 6 15, 9, 4 16, 7, 3 28, 15, 7 16, 8, 5

NOAA CFS Forecast made Dec. 30, 2010

The fearless wunderground. com 2011 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: • 16 named storms • 9 hurricanes • 4 intense hurricanes May the steering currents be your friend!