The Foresight Bridge Initiative The Fore Tech Project

The ‘Foresight Bridge’ Initiative The Fore. Tech Project 6 July 2004 Progress since Ioannina Patrick Crehan, Kusano & Associates Brussels, Belgium Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

Ioannina as part of a Foresight ‘Thread’ The ‘Blueprints’ Initiative - AGRIBLUE – Sustainable Territorial Development Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Irish Presidency Meeting in Dublin - 14 & 15 June – Sustainable Spatial Development Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

The Future of Rural Economies Change at EU level is being driven by … • A general perception of the unsustainability of the Acquis Communautaire, • Rapid progress with Accession, • Reform of the CAP, • WTO recognition of ‘multi-functionality’, • Reform of the Structural Funds. This calls for a response at regional levels in terms of … • A renewal of awareness and debate among policy makers on policy options, • Greater involvement of stakeholders as ultimate agents of change, • Shared visions of a European Model of Agriculture in EU 25+, • Shared visions of how RTD + Innovation Policy in the ERA can contribute to this, • Alignment between policy for the ERA and the European Model of Agriculture, • Consistency between the multi-functional view of agriculture and the way in which farmers are compensated for what they do. What role can foresight and related tools play? Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 The role of the ‘Blueprint’ is to clarify this question! Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

Istanbul - Three Interlinked Themes The Lisbon & Barcelona Objectives - 2010 Food Options for the future Agricultural produce Biotechnology 3% New, knowledge based, Cheap, safe & healthy commodities Organics professional farming Nutraceuticals & Probiotics practice Crops for fibers, energy & other economic inputs Abandonment Change Management! Social, Environmental & Economic impacts (What happened to coal-mines, cotton mills and other industries is happening in rural areas right now) Multi-functionality A re-visioning of the nature of work in rural areas, and of the value that this creates for society as a whole (An explicit linking of agricultural activity with the sustainability of modern knowledge based economies) . . . financing all of the above! Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 The Gothenburg Objective - 2030 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

The ‘Convergence’ Challenge This is the EU convergence Challenge! Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 What role will the regions play? Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

The Evolving ‘Thread’ Ioannina: Riga: Istanbul: Focus on abandonment and on the interaction between economic, social and environmental issues triggered by changes in land usage. . . A deeper exploration of issues in particular of the meaning of multi-functionality … The discovery of the convergence challenge … Dublin • A ‘planners’ perspective, • A vision of how ‘ministries’ can improve … AGRIBLUE Oldenburg Galway Leveling up with detailed knowledge of the challenges faced by rural regions from regions of France, Finland, Poland, UK, Germany, Ireland, Hungary … Discovery of the governance challenge, a maturity model for sustainable governance new forms of knowledge, and a schema for ‘sustainable territorial development’ … Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

‘Agriculture’ versus ‘Rural Economies’ A: The most salient feature of rural areas is LAND a limited natural resource with an economic, environmental and social role: B: Rural areas can be decomposed as follows into areas that are experiencing: 1: Intensification 2: Extensification 3: Abandonment of agricultural activity Patterns of land-usage change in time and are subject to sudden shocks brought about by major political & trade issues as well as drift due to demographic and life-style changes. C: It is highly unlikely that SUSTAINABILITY in economic, environmental and social terms can be achieved at all scales on the basis of conventional market mechanisms. Alternative mechanisms for economic redistribution of will be required to achieve sustainability. BALANCED and sustainable development will only be achieved on the basis of a knowledge based approach to the development of competitive knowledge driven rural economies. Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

The Blueprints Process Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 - Brussels - Oldenburg - Galway Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

Foresight Schema for Sustainable Territorial Development Barcelona 2010 Gothenburg 2030 Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

Foresight as a Knowledge Creating Process 3 Essential Inputs 3 Essential outputs Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

The Regional Governance Challenge Flows of Knowledge … … for a redistribution of resources that ensures the global sustainability of the system … for Knowledge. Driven Policy Flows of finance … Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 Patrick. Crehan@cka. be

A ‘Maturity Model’ for the Governance of Rural Regions 1) Addresses Immediate Needs Arising from the - Impact of CAP Reform, - Shock of Accession, - Global Competition … 2) Manages longer term structural change processes - Demographics, - Diversification of rural economies, - Development of appropriate Knowledge Infrastructures … 3) Establishes a governance of ‘renewal’ that - recognizes universally accepted principles of sustainable development - balances economic, social & environmental goals, - supports renewal via self-organization, - manages new ‘social’ contracts, - ensures the production of knowledge for sustainable policy development Barcelona – 3% Foresight Bridge - Brussels - 6 July 2004 The Gothenburg Agenda ‘Sustainable’ Europe Patrick. Crehan@cka. be