The food crisis water crisis and economic development

The food crisis, water crisis and economic development: Food scarcity Water scarcity Poverty Simon Cook Basin focal projects Challenge Program on Water and Food

My talk… • • Global crisis of food, water and development How does this crisis appear in river basins? Realities and underlying causes? Conclusions and policy targets FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

We analyze patterns in 10 basins globally Niger

Why study at a GLOBAL scale? • To understand drivers of problems – These are not random • To compare across basins – Solutions often come from outside • To enable judgments under uncertainty – Sometimes it helps to know why FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

World food & water crisis • Food crisis • Water crisis

…World Water Crisis: Declining per capita availability of water ‘ 000 m 3 16 Africa 14 12 10 World 8 Asia 6 4 2 0 MENA 1960 1990 2025

Economic development • The poorest rely on agriculture – the livelihood base • Other activities contribute later Size of bubble proportional to rural population FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Global picture • Food production must increase • …food production consumes huge volumes of water • Other demands also increasing • Food & water systems need co-development to support broad change • …without compromising environmental flows FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

What the food & water crisis looks like in river basins

Limpopo FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

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Yellow River: China’s sorrow FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Mekong: Conflict over hydropower FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Ganges FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Andes FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Summary of the news from basins • News tends to report events, not causes – Crises make good headlines of conflict, catastrophe, • Longer term stories not so sexy – Success is a slow steady process – Failure of the food and water system a (non story) of ‘not much happening’ FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Looking more closely at factors in basins that influence development • • Water availability Water use Water related hazard Water productivity FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water availability less influential than we might think Per capita income vs. water availability Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP World Bank, 2008

Water availability is one poverty factor…of many Drought Poverty Access to credit From Sao Francisco Torres et al. , 2008 FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Poor education

Volta Water use • Grassland dominates water use • Rainfed crops >> irrigated • Runoff generated differentially within basin Devaraj de Condappa

Nile: Rainfed agriculture by far the biggest user Grassland 45% RF crops 27% Irrigation ~1% FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

How people develop from water use: Globally, irrigation supports dense populations…. Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 Relative values better than absolutes

…but not in Africa (or Latin America) Irrigated Woodland + Grass Rainfed FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water related hazard • Flood • Drought • Disease If uncontrolled, a major obstacle to investment FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Limpopo FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Drought Eastham 2009 (Preliminary draft) FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

0 Volta 100% Malaria prevalence

Water productivity • Benefit per m 3 water consumed • Key diagnostic of how much people gain • Applies to – irrigated crops – rainfed crops, livestock – fish FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water productivity must respond faster than demand Demand response WP crisis time FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Water productivity: In some places responding to demand VN, Mekong Delta Vietnam VN Central Highlands Laos Cambodia Rice FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09 NE Thailand Mac Kirby, 2007

African basins, Wproductivity low or patchy – Limpopo, • generally v. low (a few high patches) – Volta • V low but with some patches – Niger • WPr very low – Nile, • Large areas of very low WPr • Extremely high in Delta (including aquaculture) Volta Generally <<0. 2 kg/m 3 IRD, 2007 Potential= ~2 kg/m 3

Actual water productivity well below potential • Basins in Asia responding to pressure… Wpr (potential) Yellow • …most in Africa ‘dormant’ Ganges Mekong Nile Limpopo Volta Niger

Final thoughts • The water and food crisis is really a development crisis What factors are preventing people moving “up the slide”? FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

4 causes of water-related poverty • Water scarcity: – A problem but not necessarily the worst • Lack of access or unequal sharing: – Widespread problem, but less certain effect • Exposure to hazard: – Drought, flood, water-related diseases • Low water productivity: – Very widespread – Other factors prevent full benefit FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

4 targets for water-related policy • Water scarcity: – (not sure what can be done) • Lack of access or unequal sharing: – Institutions, informed and transparent politics • Exposure to hazard: – Forecasting, mitigation, risk sharing • Low water productivity: – Focus on agriculture as the first driver of change – Institutes to support integrated development FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09

Thank you FANRPAN Regional Policy Dialogue 2 Sep 09