The Evolution of National Polarorbiting Operational Satellite System

The Evolution of National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System (NPOESS) Space Environmental Sensing Capabilities Michael Bonadonna Space and Satellite Programs Office of Science and Technology National Weather Service

5 th AMS Space Weather Symposium 21 – 22 January 2008 New Orleans, LA The Evolution of National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System (NPOESS) Space Environmental Sensing Capabilities Michael F. Bonadonna User Liaison National Weather Service The history of the development of requirements for space environmental data from polar-orbiting satellites beginning with the convergence of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) programs will be discussed. Development of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) space environmental requirements began in the mid 1990’s. As the NPOESS program was developed to meet these requirements, a robust set of space environmental sensors was planned. However, due to cost concerns and negotiations with the NPOESS User Community, certain capabilities were dropped to sustain others. In 2006, NPOESS developmental challenges drove cost increases triggering a Congressionally mandated review of the program. The review resulted in a Certified NPOESS program from which most of the space environmental sensing capabilities were removed. In response, two separate but coordinated initiatives by Air Force Space Command the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology are underway to recover some of the NPOESS space environmental sensing capability.

Overview • NPOESS Program Overview and Requirements • The Original NPOESS Space Environmental Sensor Suite • The SESS Wars • The Aerospace Independent Program Assessment • Nunn-Mc. Curdy Certification and Program Restructure

NPOESS Certified Program 2 EMD Satellites plus 2 Optional (2010 decision) Bus sized to carry all sensors VIIRS, Cr. IS, ATMS, CERES, OMPS-N, SEM, ADCS, SARSAT remain APS, TSIS, OMPS-L, ERBS, Alt, Su. S, SESS de-manifested from C 1 & C 2 [accommodation remains] CMIS deleted from C 1 & C 2 [MIS planned for C 2] Ground architecture essentially unchanged Continuity, Flexibility, Affordable Advanced Capability

Polar Met. Sat Flight Schedule CALENDAR YEAR 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 F 13 12 13 14 F 19 AM 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 C 4 F 20 F 17 24 C 2 M Mid AM F 16 F 18 Met. Op A Met. Op C PEPSIS Met. Op B C 3 PM N AQUA N’ C 1 NPP NPOESS and Met. Op team up to replace Heritage Systems

NPOESS Environmental Regimes Weather, Oceanography Clouds, temperature, wind, precipitation, currents, tides, land use Nowcasting, Forecasting Routine weather, disasters, military ops Imagers, sounders, [active and passive] Space Weather magnetic and electric fields Solar Event Forecast Communication, navigation, anomaly resolution Imagers, sounders [active and passive], particle and field probes Climate, Environment Chemistry, water, pollution, etc Long Term Monitoring Planetary implications Radiometers, spectrometers, sounders [active and passive]

NPOESS SESS REQUIREMENTS User Developed – IPO Executed NPOESS Integrated Operational Requirements Document IORD-II signed 14 January 2002 NPOESS Space EDRs Auroral Boundary Auroral Energy Deposition Auroral Imagery Electric Field Electron Density Profile Geomagnetic Field In-situ Plasma Fluctuations In-situ Plasma Temperature (Te & Ti) Ionospheric Scintillation Neutral Density Profile Medium Energy Charged Particles Energetic Ions Supra-thermal through Auroral Energy Particles

NPOESS SESS Timeline 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan 02: IORD-II approved setting NPOESS Requirements Fall 02: Baseline accepted (on contract)

The Original NPOESS Space Environmental Sensor Suite

TRW’s SESS Sensors and Performance HORUS EUV HEPS LEPS MEPS TPS MAG CTBA Hyperspectral Operational Radiometric UV Sensor Extreme UV Limb Imager High Energy Particle Sensor Low Energy Particle Sensor Medium Energy Particle Sensor Thermal Plasma Sensor Magnetometer Coherent Transionospheric Beacon Assembly GPSOS* GPS Occultation Sensor (Not a SESS sensor) • • SESS provided 13 EDRs Threshold or better performance on 10 EDRs – Cost performance trades resulted in below-threshold performance on three attributes of three EDRs

EDR Satisfaction - Baseline Orbit Instrument 2130 1330 1730 (C 1) (C 2) (C 3) 2130 (C 1) 1330 (C 2) 1730 (C 3) 2130 (C 4) 1330 (C 5) 1730 (C 6) Auroral Particles R G R Auroral Energy Deposition R G R Electron Density Profile R G R Neutral Density Profile R Y R Energetic Ions R G R X Ionospheric Scintillation R Y R X Med. Energy Particles R G R X Electric Field R G R HORUS X EUV Limb X TPS X LEPS X MEPS SEM-2 X HEPS SEM-2 X RF Beacon MAG SSM GPSOS Orbit Instrument SESS EDRs 2130 1330 1730 Auroral Imagery R G R (C 4) (C 5) (C 6) Auroral Boundary R G R Geomagnetic Field R Y R In-Situ Plasma Temps R G R In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations R G R HORUS X EUV Limb X TPS X LEPS X MEPS X HEPS X RF Beacon X MAG X GPSOS X Green Yellow Orange Red Meets IORD requirements in specified orbit Does not meet some of the EDR attributes Some measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met No measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit

The SESS Wars (Jan 03 - Jul 04)

NPOESS SESS Timeline 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov 02: Users unhappy with SESS capabilities Feb 03: SESS Review Team formed. JARG explores sensor configuration options Spring 03: IPO provided ROM costs for Replan Baseline SESS sensor configuration Dec 03: IPO/NGST/Users SESS Configuration TIM - Determined SUAG-3 ~$100 M over baseline - NGST tasked to provide proposals for 7 options Jan 04: IPO forwarded two new SESS configuration options as “executable” to the JARG – 1 and 1 A

EDR Satisfaction – IPO Option 1 Orbit Instrument 2130 1330 1730 (C 1) (C 2) (C 3) X X TPS X X LEPS X X MEPS CEASE II HEPS X 2130 (C 1) 1330 (C 2) 1730 (C 3) 2130 (C 4) 1330 (C 5) 1730 (C 6) Auroral Particles R G G Auroral Energy Deposition R G G Electron Density Profile R O O Neutral Density Profile R O R Energetic Ions R G R RF Beacon Ionospheric Scintillation R R R MAG Med. Energy Particles R O O GPSOS Electric Field R G G HORUS EUV Limb Orbit EDR 2130 1330 1730 Auroral Imagery R G G (C 4) (C 5) (C 6) Auroral Boundary R G G X X Geomagnetic Field R R R In-Situ Plasma Temps TPS X X R G G LEPS X X In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations R G G MEPS CEASE II HEPS X Orbit Instrument HORUS EUV Limb RF Beacon MAG GPSOS Green Yellow Orange Red Meets IORD requirements in specified orbit Does not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit Some measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met No measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit Instruments descoped to fund second orbit plane instruments

EDR Satisfaction – IPO Option 1 A Orbit Instrument 2130 1330 1730 (C 1) (C 2) (C 3) X X TPS X X LEPS X X MEPS CEASE II HEPS X 2130 (C 1) 1330 (C 2) 1730 (C 3) 2130 (C 4) 1330 (C 5) 1730 (C 6) Auroral Particles R G G Auroral Energy Deposition R G G Y G G Electron Density Profile R O O O Neutral Density Profile R O O O Energetic Ions R G R RF Beacon Ionospheric Scintillation R R R MAG Med. Energy Particles R O O GPSOS Electric Field R G G G HORUS EUV Limb Orbit EDR 2130 1330 1730 Auroral Imagery R G G G (C 4) (C 5) (C 6) Auroral Boundary R G G G X X X Geomagnetic Field R R R In-Situ Plasma Temps X X X R G G G LEPS X X In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations R G G G MEPS CEASE II HEPS X Orbit Instrument HORUS EUV Limb TPS RF Beacon MAG GPSOS Green Yellow Orange Red Meets IORD requirements in specified orbit Does not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit Some measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met No measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit Instruments Added vs. Option 1 EDRs Improved vs. Option 1

NPOESS SESS Timeline 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 29 Apr 04 EXCOM meeting – IPO presents SESS configuration recommendation. EXCOM charters an IPA Mar 04: SUAG recommendation on SESS options

Aerospace IPA Background • Interagency team led by Dr. Aufderhaar • The IPO, JARG & SUAG Are Making a Good Faith Effort to Enhance SESS Capability to Match User Expectations • NPOESS SESS Configurations – Replan Baseline: All SESS + GPSOS on a single orbit plane (C 2/C 5) – Compromise Solution: Distributed SESS (C 1 -C 6) w/o GPSOS proposed by SUAG – IPO determined cost delta ~$100 M: not executable – Option 1 : Fewer sensors but improved coverage (two orbit planes – C 2/C 5 & C 3/C 6) in an attempt to meet user requests (loss of Mag, RF Beacon, EUV Limb, GPSOS) – Option 1 A: Additional sensors (HORUS/TPS) on NPOESS/C 4 spacecraft (SESS now on C 2 -C 6) – Option 1 B: Option 1 A w/ CEASE-II replaced by MEPS to address user concerns

“USER” SATISFACTION MATRIX (2005) Includes DMSP, POES, Met. Op, and SWARM ORBIT SENSOR UV- Disk UV-Limb TPS LEPS MEPS MAG HEPS C 1 2130 SSUSI C 2 1330 C 3 1730 X X SSULI SSIES SSJ/TED MEPED X X X SWARM MEPED X C 4 2130 C 5 1330 C 6 1730 X X SEM-2 X X X X Non-NPOESS Instrumentation (DMSP / POES / METOP/SWARM) 2130 (C 1) 1330 (C 2) 1730 (C 3) 2130 (C 4) 1330 (C 5) 1730 (C 6) Auroral Particles Y G G Auroral Energy Deposition Y G G Electron Density Profile Y O O O Neutral Density Profile Y O O O Energetic Ions Y G R Ionospheric Scintillation (P 3 I) O O O Med. Energy Particles Y G G Electric Field Y G G G Auroral Imagery Y G G G Auroral Boundary G G G Geomagnetic Field (P 3 I) G G R R In-Situ Plasma Temps Y G G G In-Situ Plasma Fluctuations Y G G G Orbit EDR Green Yellow Orange Meets EDR requirements in specified orbit Does not meet some of the EDR attributes in specified orbit Some measurements address the EDR but most attributes are not met Red No measurements made to address this EDR in specified orbit Note: Ionospheric Scintillation & Magnetic Field are being moved to P 3 I status.

Aerospace SESS IPA: Summary of Recommendations • Execute Option 1 B • Consider Option 1 B+: Option 1 B and “GPSOS-Lite” on C 2 -C 6 • Magnetic Field Data from SWARM and/or follow-On Lab microsats • NPOESS program-wide offsets can fund these changes • Also consider alternative payloads to satisfy SESS requirements using Preplanned Product Improvement (P 3 I) spacecraft margin

NPOESS SESS Timeline 2001 2002 2003 Dec 05: NPOESS declares Nunn-Mc. Curdy Breach. End-to-end review begins. Jun 06: N-M Review results in an ADM drastically reducing SESS capability. May 07: OSTP asks OFCM to conduct an Assessment of the N-M impact on NPOESS SESS capability Jan 08: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

NPOESS Space Environmental Data Capabilities Environmental Data Records (EDR) Pre-NM Performance Post-NM Performance Electron Density Profile Degraded EDR No capability Ionospheric Scintillation Degraded EDR No capability Neutral Density Profile Degraded EDR No capability Auroral Imagery Degraded EDR No capability Auroral Energy Deposition EDR satisfied Degraded EDR Auroral Energy Particles EDR satisfied Degraded EDR Energetic Ions EDR satisfied Degraded EDR Electric Field EDR satisfied No capability Medium Energy Charged Particles EDR satisfied Degraded EDR Geomagnetic Field No capability In-situ Plasma Temperature EDR satisfied No capability In-situ Plasma Fluctuations EDR satisfied No capability Auroral Boundary EDR satisfied

Polar-orbiting SESS Data Continuity Assessment Space environmental sensing continuity of polar-orbiting satellites relative to the ORD-II requirements.

NPOESS SESS Timeline 2001 2002 2003 29 Apr 04 EXCOM meeting – IPO presents SESS configuration recommendation. EXCOM charters an IPA Jul 04: Aerospace IPA outbrief to EXCOM recommends Option 1 B+ 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Jan 02: IORD-II approved setting NPOESS Requirements Fall 02: Baseline accepted (on contract) Nov 02: Users unhappy with SESS capabilities Dec 05: NPOESS declares Nunn-Mc. Curdy Breach. End-to-end review begins. Feb 03: SESS Review Team formed. JARG explores sensor configuration options Jun 06: N-M Review results in an ADM drastically reducing SESS capability. Spring 03: IPO provided ROM costs for Replan Baseline SESS sensor configuration May 07: OSTP asks OFCM to conduct an Assessment of the N-M impact on NPOESS SESS capability Jan 08: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities Dec 03: IPO/NGST/Users SESS Configuration TIM - Determined SUAG-3 ~$100 M over baseline - NGST tasked to provide proposals for 7 options Jan 04: IPO forwarded two new SESS configuration options as “executable” to the JARG – 1 and 1 A Mar 04: SUAG recommendation on SESS options

Summary • 2002: Operational requirements for space environment data from polar-orbit have been documented in the NPOESS IORD in 2002. • 2003: Initial NPOESS configuration provided satisfactory data quality and data types but insufficient coverage. • 2005: After a two-year analysis and replanning effort, a modest space environmental capability was planned. • 2006: Nunn-Mc. Curdy Review results in a drastic reduction in NPOESS Space environmental sensing capability • 2007: As requested by OSTP, OFCM completed assessment of NM impact to national space environmental services. • 2008: OSTP will determine if a Phase II Assessment of alternatives and Strategies is warranted to mitigate reduced NPOESS SESS capabilities