THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
THE EUROPEAN SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS UNITED ARAB EMIRATES June, 2012 Philippe D’ARVISENET, Global Chief Economist Economic Research Department
§ What the euro zone could be if it was not only a monetary union but a true economic union § The euro zone: not just an exchange rate regime but a political project - The euro why? - The euro, how? The stability pact… but countries did not comply with the rules § The roots of the crisis - Policy mistakes: unsustainable conditions built up either in the private or the public sector - But not only: specialization and the North-South divide § The crisis and its management - Greece, contagion, interconnection between banks and sovereigns - The risk of a credit crunch and a deflationary spiral - ECB to the rescue § Towards a rules based system: not without questions § Then what? Collapsing or more federalism? Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 2
What the euro zone could be if it was not only a monetary union but a true economic union Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 3
chart 1 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 4
chart 2 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 5
chart 3 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 6
The euro zone: not just an exchange rate regime but a political project - The euro why? - The euro, how? The stability pact… but countries did not comply with the rules Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 7
chart 4 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 8
chart 5 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 9
chart 6 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 10
The roots of the crisis - Policy mistakes: unsustainable conditions built up either in the private or the public sector - But not only: specialization and the North-South divide Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 11
chart 7 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 12
chart 8 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 13
chart 9 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 14
chart 10 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 15
chart 11 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 16
chart 12 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 17
chart 13 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 18
chart 14 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 19
chart 15 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 20
chart 16 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 21
chart 17 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 22
chart 18 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 23
The crisis and its management - Greece, contagion, interconnection between banks and sovereigns - The risk of a credit crunch and a deflationary spiral - ECB to the rescue Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 24
chart 19 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 25
chart 20 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 26
chart 21 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 27
chart 22 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 28
chart 23 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 29
chart 24 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 30
chart 25 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 31
chart 26 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 32
chart 27 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 33
chart 28 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 34
Towards a rules based system: not without questions Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 35
Then what? Collapsing or more federalism? Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 36
chart 29 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 37
chart 30 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 38
chart 31 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 39
chart 32 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 40
chart 33 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 41
chart 34 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 42
chart 35 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 43
chart 36 Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 44
Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 45
Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 46
Philippe D’Arvisenet, Global Chief Economist May 2012 47
- Slides: 47