The EuroMed Agreements Some lessons for Syria JoseMaria

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The Euro-Med Agreements. Some lessons for Syria Jose-Maria Garcia-Alvarez-Coque, Professor of Economics, UPV, Valencia,

The Euro-Med Agreements. Some lessons for Syria Jose-Maria Garcia-Alvarez-Coque, Professor of Economics, UPV, Valencia, jmgarcia@upvnet. upv. es “The Contribution of Agriculture and Rural Development to the Process of Economic Reforms of Syria” (Damascus, 1 -2 July 2008)

Syrian agro-food exports (2001 – 2006) n based on UN data (see SAT) q

Syrian agro-food exports (2001 – 2006) n based on UN data (see SAT) q q q Per capita exports Market diversification Product diversification n q Live animals, cotton, olive oil, edible vegetables and fruits account for nearly 50% of non-oil exports The EU accounts for nearly 18 of total agricultural exports. n Out of it: q q Cotton and textile by-products: 40% Olive oil: 27%

Factors of export success: Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in foreign markets

Factors of export success: Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages

Syrian rank in GCI (out of 48 ‘factor Source: WEF driven’ economies) Basic requirements

Syrian rank in GCI (out of 48 ‘factor Source: WEF driven’ economies) Basic requirements n Institutions n Infrastructure n Macroeconomy n Health and primary education Efficiency enhancers n Higher education and training n Market efficiency n Access to technology Innovation factors n Business sophistication n Innovation ++ 1 to 8 + 9 to 19 -+ 20 to 25 + ++ + -+ ≈ - 26 to 36 -- 37 to 48

Factors of export success Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in Foreign markets

Factors of export success Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in Foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages

EMAs in force Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EMAs in force Country 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Tunisia Morocco Jordan Lebanon Egypt Syria ? ?

The EU market-access issue q The Association Agreement will open: n n q q

The EU market-access issue q The Association Agreement will open: n n q q q New market opportunities. Stable framework for trade So far trade preferences have not become a great impulse of SMC exports to the EU, but a continuation of traditional trade flows Doha negotiations could change the picture On what depends the benefits of the Association Agreement?

Percentage of ‘potential exports’ to the EU Group of countries: Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon

Percentage of ‘potential exports’ to the EU Group of countries: Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon Source: Martí Selva and Alvarez-Coque (2007)

Doha may have some impact Effects of a MFN removal of the entry price

Doha may have some impact Effects of a MFN removal of the entry price system applied to EU tomato imports Variation in sales to the EU (%) Intra UE-25 -2, 5 Marruecos 61, 4 Turquía -4, 6 Sources: EU Commission (2008), Garcia Alvarez-Coque et al. (2007)

Factors of export success: Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in foreign markets

Factors of export success: Comparative advantages (factor driven economy) Market access in foreign markets Adaptation to global supply chains + Competitive advantages

The traditional marketing Farmers Wholesale market Commissioners Local commissioners Packing houses Exporters Foreign market

The traditional marketing Farmers Wholesale market Commissioners Local commissioners Packing houses Exporters Foreign market

Adaptation to supply chains n n n Stakeholders in value chains share interests in

Adaptation to supply chains n n n Stakeholders in value chains share interests in cost reduction, quality upgrading and risk management. Need to understand what enables coordination forms in the value chain to perform successfully. Value chain competitiveness needs targeted measures different from traditional subsidies

Need for a systemic approach n n n n n Government bureaucracy Access to

Need for a systemic approach n n n n n Government bureaucracy Access to financing Corruption Inadequately educated workforce Foreign currency regulations Supply of infrastructure Restrictive labour regulations Tax regulations Market efficiency Access to technology

Areas for research n Impacts of trade liberalization, detailed by product, season and territory

Areas for research n Impacts of trade liberalization, detailed by product, season and territory q q n n n The issue of preferences versus multilateral liberalization The growing role of SPS and TBT standards, including the quality policy of large retailers Supply chains and the agro-food system Domestic Policies Transnational cooperation is a must for the analysis of Euro Mediterranean integration: research groups, workshops

Thanks!

Thanks!