The EU as a global actor by 2030

The EU as a global actor by 2030 • Context – Multipolar world with China, India and U. S. as the most important players. – Globalization – More regionally organized actors in order to increase power of members (especially South America). – Power shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean. – EU will have lost its economic importance.

The EU as a global actor by 2030 • European Foreign and Security Policy: Can the EU speak with one voice? – Current Institutional framework • President of the European Council • High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security policy • European Council: defining strategic interests and providing guidelines • Council has to frame the ESDP • Decisions in principle taken by unanimity • No role for the European Parliament or the European Court of Justice

The EU as a global actor by 2030 – Framework of the Treaty of the EU is illadapted for a Common Foreign and Security Policy: change or become irrelevant • The High Representative needs to become a true Secretary of Foreign Affairs, more integrated with the Commission • Qualified majority voting in European Council and Council • More power to the EU Parliament to discuss essential elements of ESDP to enhance legitimacy

The EU as a global actor by 2030 • CFSP by 2030: – Safeguarding the integrity, security, values and independence of the EU: • There will be no major traditional threats against EU or major conflicts due to economic globalization • Energy supply: 90 % of gas and 80 % of oil will come from outside the EU, from instable regimes and more competition for these resources and increases in costs Alternative: renewable energy • Natural resources: a new economic scramble for Africa? • Terrorism? Remains a threat, but as such not a major threat. • Importance of multilateralism

The EU as a global actor by 2030 – Conflict prevention will be of the utmost importance: in a multipolar world more low intensity conflicts are likely and EU has expertise • Soft power: strengthening human rights, democracy and the rule of law. • Combating poverty by promoting sustainable development, with focus on Africa (how to reconcile realism with idealism) • Integration of countries in the world economy (but what about EU trade barriers? ) • Enhanced cooperation with other States, international organizations such as the UN and regional organizations: establishing a network to ensure global governance

The EU as a global actor by 2030 – Peacekeeping: keeping warring factions apart, will be most often performed in intra-State asymmetric conflict • Develop capabilities for rapid reaction and insertion in conflict areas • New strategies to deal with asymmetric warfare • Close relation with UN and Security Council: the EU as police force of the world? – Post-conflict reconstruction: Especially develop civil capabilities (police, civil servants, judges) to restore failed States while military ensures security Goals: establish democratic State, rule of law and human rights

The EU as a global actor by 2030 • Assets: Common Defence Policy – Will be implemented by 2025 -2030 – A radical reformation of European armies: a EU army is unlikely, but EU countries will work together to synchronize their armies – Lighter, more specialized and technologically advanced armed forces for rapid reaction to security threats, peacekeeping, and post conflict reconstruction – Emphasis on naval power and transport capabilities – The EU relation within NATO: A second pillar next to the U. S. ?

The EU as a global actor by 2030 • Conclusion – The EU will still be a relevant international actor • It reforms it CFSP decision making procedure along “Communautarian” lines, instead of purely intergovernmental • The EU is the perfect example of conflict prevention, so export that expertise • It will be heavily relied upon by the UN and others as a peacekeeper and nation-builder • It will keep strong ties with the U. S. , but more independent course, interact with other powers and act as mediator • Its role in NATO will likely increase