The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity Phil

The estimation of internal migration by ethnicity Phil Rees QMSS 2 Summer School Projection Methods for Ethnicity and Immigration Status 2 -9 July 2009 School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK

Outline of topics �Internal migration: definitions and sources �The evidence for ethnic differences in internal migration �Raymer and Giullieti �Hussein, Stillwell and Norman �Framework for estimation of internal migration �Available data sets �The exercise for the afternoon

What is internal migration? �Internal migration is the change of residence within a country �Both origin and destination residence is within the same country �The changes of residence are usually aggregated into origin-destination tables �Origins and destination zones are usually based on the administrative hierarchy of the country (e. g. ward municipality county region; LAU 1 LAU 2 NUTS 3 NUTS 2 NUTS 1) �For the purposes of population projection, you normally ignore intra-zone migration

What are the important interactions? Evidence from the literature �Work of Raymer and co-authors establishes that OD patterns differ between ethnic groups �But only five ethnic groups �Work of Hussein and Stillwell show that the ethnic groups differ in net migration patterns �But only seven ethnic groups

Hussain & Stillwell: net migration results

Table 1: Portion of an internal migration matrix, 2001 Census White British Origins 00 AA City of London 00 AB Barking and Dagenham 00 AC Barnet 00 AD Bexley Destinations 00 AB 00 AA Barking City of and 00 AC 00 AD London Dagenham Barnet Bexley 98 0 8 3 0 8 0 5147 21 31 Census data are transitions over one year, 2000 -1 8 8426 20 29 12 7356

Table 2: Part of a Patient Register Data System PRDS matrix, 20067 Mid-year to mid-year 2006 -7 UKC 1 UKD 2 UKD 3 UKC 1 0 5129 487 310 694 UKC 2 6456 0 848 311 1070 UKD 1 398 860 0 318 875 UKD 2 341 327 379 0 4577 UKD 3 733 1038 1114 6848 0 PRDS migration data are transitions adjusted to agree with NHSCR migration data which are moves

NHSCR data for UK NUTS 1 regions , 2006 -7 UK UK NE NW YH EM WM EE LO SE SW WA SC NI 33. 6 84. 3 86. 6 91. 8 87. 1 117. 7 234. 5 183. 9 92. 8 47. 0 38. 5 NE 39. 5 0 NW 99. 2 5. 7 YH 92. 6 9. 2 18. 3 5. 9 9. 2 0 18. 2 3. 2 2. 3 4. 5 2. 2 1. 0 3. 5 0. 8 6. 9 11. 2 7. 2 8. 3 6. 3 2. 2 8. 5 9. 8 10. 2 5. 4 2. 6 3. 9 0. 8 0 16. 1 18. 5 12. 4 17. 6 7. 0 2. 7 2. 8 0. 6 7. 6 12. 1 13. 7 12. 3 7. 5 2. 5 0. 6 9. 1 2. 9 3. 5 0. 7 0 55. 9 16. 3 5. 0 6. 2 1. 3 7. 1 6. 0 1. 2 0 9. 9 3. 7 0. 8 0 1. 6 0. 4 9. 0 12. 4 0 16. 2 7. 8 3. 0 3. 9 8. 8 EM 108. 2 WM 92. 8 3. 0 2. 4 12. 0 7. 3 14. 7 0 EE 144. 8 2. 5 7. 3 14. 1 7. 2 LO 167. 0 4. 8 12. 2 10. 8 11. 4 12. 3 30. 8 SE 226. 1 4. 0 11. 2 9. 4 14. 4 13. 2 29. 3 97. 1 SW 136. 5 WA 56. 5 2. 2 8. 7 6. 1 8. 8 15. 9 13. 2 22. 4 44. 8 1. 0 10. 1 2. 9 3. 2 9. 3 3. 6 5. 3 8. 9 10. 3 SC 51. 5 4. 3 7. 8 5. 4 3. 5 3. 4 4. 7 6. 9 8. 0 4. 0 1. 8 NI 12. 8 0. 6 2. 1 0. 8 0. 6 0. 8 0. 9 1. 8 1. 4 0. 7 0. 5 2. 6 0 9. 3 18. 3 6. 7 0 64. 9 26 0 33. 3

Newborn 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 Migration schedule by single years of age (2001 Census) 40 35 30 25 20 Male 15 Female Total 10 5 0

Problem: how to use this information to produce a consistent estimate? �Definitions of dimensions �O = origins (352 LAs in E, 22 in Wales, Scot + N Ire) �D = destinations (ditto) �E = ethnic groups (16 in 2001 Census) �A = ages (0 … 100 for projection model) �S = sexes (men, women) �T = time intervals (my: 2000 -1 to 2007 -8) �One solution: ODE + AS + T �Use the origin-destination structures by age multiplied by age-sex probabilities for all migrants multiplied by time series factors �Can we do better than this?

Exercise �Aim: to help me to develop a feasible model for estimating internal migration by ethnicity that captures the main effects but is not too complex �Read and report on the set of papers �Raymer 2008 RMF �Raymer 2008 EAPS �Raymer and Giulietti 2009 �Stillwell and Hussein 2008 �Hussein and Stillwell 2008 �Stillwell, Hussein and Norman 2008 �Design a possible solution