The End of Industrialism Going Home Planning for

The End of Industrialism “Going Home” Planning for Hard Times Presented by Pat Murphy, Executive Director Community Solutions Yellow Springs, OH 45387 October 27, 2007

Community Solutions – Vision & Mission n Vision – To reduce energy consumption everywhere in every way through community and personal action n Mission – To provide knowledge and practices to support low energy lifestyles in the household economic sector (food, housing, transportation) n Key Assumptions q Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated q Must become “sustainable” – watchword of our times q “Sustainability” can be, and must be, measured

Community Solution Historical View n For 10, 000 years the world was “Agrarian” n 200 + years ago Industrialism began q Steam Engine – James Watt – 1769 (technology) q Wealth of Nations – Adam Smith – 1776 (philosophy) q Fundamental to colonialism – past and present n Industrialism – based on fossil fuels, machines and competition Agrarianism – based on land, biology (water, air) and cooperation n Industrialism is not sustainable Agrarianism is sustainable q World will become more Agrarian – one way or the other q An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and Internet q There are many intermediate technologies

Fossil Fuel History and Future n n Major increase in coal burning from 1875 – 1925 Oil usage began in first quarter of 20 th century Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945 Accelerated population growth

Population Increase and CO 2 2007 1945 n n n From 2. 4 billion people in 1945 to 6. 6 billion in 2007 Fossil fuels “feed our economy” – and our population 1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2. 6 pounds of CO 2

The Beginning of the End 2006 n Running low on oil q Petroleum Geologists (ASPO) q All fossil fuels finite q Predictions began in 1970 s n Running low on atmosphere q Climate scientists (NOAA) q Carbon absorption finite q Predictions began in 1970 s

Sustainability – Defined and Measured Sustainable ~1 ton/person n n Sustainability defined – ~ 1 ton/CO 2 person per year 20 of ~200 nations with 70% of population

The Industrial Century: 1930 – 2030 n n n Olduvai Gorge Metaphor – Richard Duncan – Oil, Gas, Coal 1945 – Country still “Agrarian” – just before hyper growth Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c – 4 to 1 increase

Energy (and CO 2) Inequity Region % US 4. 5% 300 m 10. 5% 700 m 85% 5, 700 m OECD-L ROW Pop. Ratio of US and OECD–L to ROW (ROW=1) n n US per capita energy use/CO 2 – 7/ 8 times ROW citizens US with 4. 5% of population has generated 27% of CO 2

World and U. S. Household Sector Energy World Global Use n n US US Use Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) Each American uses more energy for food than 5. 7 billion people use for everything!

The “Inconvenient” Truth n Western Industrial “life style” is threatening life itself n China & India (2. 5 billion people) have chosen industrialism q Consumerism replaced socialism/communism q Ecological deterioration is accelerating n “What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our great grand children say, "What kind of monsters must they have been? “ – US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO 2006

Beginning the Change (to Sustainability? ) n Three options – Plan A, Plan B, Plan C q Plan A – Business as usual (new fuels). Same lifestyle q Plan B – Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar. Same lifestyle q Plan C – The Party’s Over. Change lifestyle. Cut back fuels n Plan A – Denial – Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion, Carbon Capture q The record is bleak. Big potential for war. n Plan B – Substitution – Wind, solar, biofuels q Wind & solar still about 1%. Agri-fuels (food of the poor) n Plan C – Redesign – Curtailment and Community q Use “intermediate” technologies q Reduce consumption – change life style q Focus on household sector – food, house, car

Community Solutions Targets n Vision & Mission Summarized q To reduce energy consumption through community and personal action in the household economic sector including food, housing, and transportation n Agrarian Food System – This presentation n House Deep Retrofit – Linda Wigington n Smart Jitney – Bob Steinbach

U. S. Food System – “ 10 for 1” Ratio I N n D Replaced labor with fossil fuels U S n n n From. 05 to 10 fossil calories Labor efficient, energy negative land inefficient, soil destructive Varies by food type q All foods – 1 for 10 q Factory meat – 1 for 16 q Sodas – 1 for 30 T L O S S P R O F I T R I A L A G R A R I A N n ROW (5. 7 billion) is quasi Agrarian – Mostly Sustainable q Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food calories q This means 25– 50%, or more, of people grow food

Post WWII Policy – Destroy Family Farm n In 1945 US was still “Agrarian” to a degree n US “Declared War” on Farmers in late 1940 s q Ezra Benson – Eisenhower era (1950 s) “Get Big or Get Out” q Earl Butz – Nixon era (1960 s) “Adapt or Die” q Battle was over by the 1970 s

Needed to Slander Agrarians n We are: worldly–wise, cool, hip, sophisticated, blasé, trendy, upscale, tony, chic (we being machine people) n They are: provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds, bumpkins, yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies, natives, indigenous, countycousins, rednecks, clodhoppers, (they being land people) n Our work – empowering. Theirs – back breaking & mind numbing n Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in history q Hurt 100 s of millions of people around the world n Including 10 s of millions of Americans q Assault continues with WTO programs q Indigenous farmers (U. S. & worldwide) are becoming serfs

Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison Country US China Ratio 300 1, 320 4. 400 Total area (acres) (106) 2, 378 2, 370 0. 997 Cropland – acres (106) 437 306 0. 700 3 510. 8 170. 267 19. 7 2. 9 0. 147 145. 7 0. 6 0. 004 Population (106) Ag workers ((106) CO 2/capita Cropland/ag workers (acres) n Agrarian countries use more labor – for healthier foods, soils q Agricultural workers: US 1%, China 38% n China gets 6 times the calories per acre – while preserving soil n US generates 6 times the CO 2 person

Cuba’s Move to Modern Agrarianism n Experienced Peak Oil 1990 q Severe and Rapid n Extreme societal change q Searched country for farmers n In 18 months became 80% Organic n Major reforestation program n Urban gardens 50% of vegetables n Cubans diet changed q n Pork to veggies Free Medical Care/Education/Sports q Few cars/goods, tiny houses

Cuba Before n Rapid change dictated by hunger, not Fidel n Average Cuban lost 20 lbs. n Government changed land policies rapidly (like Roosevelt) n Cuba only country to achieve sustainable development award! q World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report q UN Human Development Index & Ecological Footprint

Understanding the Food System n Can’t manage if you can’t measure – “to measure is to know” q Need to understand energy/food numbers n Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) – Look in the fields n Two key divisions of our food system q Meat and Animal Products – “Feed” and Fodder n Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO) n Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials n Most of acreage devoted to this q Plants – Food n Basic food is healthy – grains, vegetables, grass-fed meat n Manufacturing process depletes plant food value

Harvested Acreage – The Basic Numbers n n n 268 million acres planted – the source of our food All food is plant based – animals are intermediaries The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products

Grains – Main Staples (Calorie) Crops n n Grains are the basis of animal “manufacturing” process Limited grains for personal consumption

The Big Grain Crop – Corn n US is world’s largest corn producer q 11. 8 billion bushels produced in 2004 – 10 billion domestic q Land provides 1, 900 pounds person per year n 2, 200 pounds average food weight per year person n Little corn eaten directly – a raw material for meat and sweets q 6. 2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat q Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) n “Heroin” of the food system q Michael Pollan – “We are the corn people”

Grains – Wheat n Largest grain crop after corn q Used primarily for human food rather than feed q Domestic use 1, 172 million bushels q 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed person n Wheat for humans is highly processed – (97% white flour) q White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped product q Vitamins added back by processors inadequate – 20 out, 4 in q Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods n Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals q Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels plain wheat n Other grains – sorghum, barley, rice, oats, millet, rye – 12% q Example of lack of variety

Oilseeds n n Soybean – Unnatural food for animals; bad fats for humans Barely existed in early 20 th century

Soybeans n US is world’s largest soybean producer q 3, 123 million bushels produced in 2004 q 2, 021 million bushels used for domestic consumption q 400 pounds person per year n For animal feed and manufactured food n Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls q After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to animals q Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated soybean oil) n “Cocaine” of the food system n Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower, mustard – 6%

Hay – Largest crop after grains and oilseeds n Largest crop after corn & soybeans q Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed q 158 million tons in 2004 q 1, 073 pounds person n Enters American diet through beef cattle and dairy cows n If corn provides meat, hay provides milk

Healthier Crops n n Very small part of acreage planted Priority is for bad food

Sugars, Legumes and Nuts n Sugars q Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn syrup q Sugar acreage 60% beets and 40% cane n Legumes q Dried beans, dried peas and lentils q Low energy replacements for CAFO products q. 7% U. S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and lentils q Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat n Nuts q. 3% of harvested acreage for nuts q Nuts can replace some CAFO meat

Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N) n n Surprisingly small amount of acreage Americans eat about half what’s recommended

Vegetables n Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables and vegetables for processing. n 30 Main Vegetables artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce, romaine and leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell peppers, potatoes, radishes, spinach, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili peppers, spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables n Only 1. 1% of farmland is used for growing vegetables.

Very Little Vegetable Diversity – (lbs) n Most potato consumption is French Fries

Fruits n Divided into fresh fruits and fruits for processing. n 35 Main Fruits apples, apricots, avocados, bananas, cherries, cantaloupes, cranberries, grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons, limes, mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches, pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries, tangelos, tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon, blackberries, boysenberries, cranberries, dates, figs, loganberries, olives, raspberries, and other miscellaneous fruit and berries. n 1. 1% of farmland allocated to fruit production

Lack of Fruit Diversity n Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages

Acreage Distribution Implications n Most of acreage for meat products and manufactured foods q Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery manufacturing q Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for manufactured foods q Wheat for white flour

Industrialized Food Results n Bad Health q $5, 000 yearly medical expenses, $2, 300 food expenses q Cheap food contributes to bad health n Tortured animals n Lack of Diversity n Deteriorating soil n Poisoned waterways n Fossil water drawdown

Bad Food and Poor Health n U. S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich nations q Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canada’s 80 n U. S. medical costs per capita twice European countries q Cheap food means expensive medical care Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese n n Food system the main culprit q Two major flaws – CAFO meat and Manufactured Foods q Two major destructive foods – Corn and Soybeans n Foolishness vs. Wisdom q US spends ~$2, 500 for food and $5, 000 for medical care q EU spends ~$3, 500 for food and $2, 500 for medical care

Atwood Study – Poor Food Choices n n n n n n Nutritional Density What People Should Eat Highest to lowest Broccoli Spinach Brussels Sprouts Lima Beans Peas Asparagus Artichokes Cauliflower Sweet Potatoes Carrots Sweet corn Potatoes Cabbage Tomatoes Banana Lettuce Onions Oranges 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Popularity What people Eat Lowest to highest Tomatoes Oranges Potatoes Lettuce Sweet Corn Bananas Carrots Cabbage Onions Sweet potatoes Peas Spinach Broccoli Lima beans Asparagus Cauliflower Brussels Sprouts Artichokes

Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat n Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life q Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens scratch n CAFOs deny these natural behaviors q Extreme stress (pain) for the animal q No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!) q No fresh air (never go outside) q Many other torments q Very short horrible lives n Live in fecal material (ground/air) q Antibiotics required to keep animals alive q High risk to human health

Animal Products – Not Grandparent’s Meat n Animals earlier always part of diet q Hunting and grazing n Animals no longer graze freely q Inhumane CAFO conditions n Fed wrong foods n Diet injures them n Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of fossil fuels q FAO Report – Livestock's long shadow 2006 q Livestock rearing creates more CO 2 equivalent than cars n Americans eat twice what they used to q US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs, Central America-103 lbs

Manufactured Foods – Little Diversity n 320, 000 food and beverage products in U. S. q Average supermarket carries 30, 000 - 40, 000 n People don’t eat 30, 000 to 40, 000 different things q Recipes not food –combinations of white flour, corn sweeteners & hydrogenated soybean oil with chemical flavoring & coloring n America’s “Flavor Industry” along New Jersey Turnpike q Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U. S. q Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - $1. 4 billion q Also provides shaping and texturing products n Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of foods

Soil Destruction & Water Drawdown n Agriculture uses most of U. S water q Ogallala Drawdown occurring q Irrigation vital to food supply q Not sustainable n Erosion q Topsoil becoming more shallow q Part of giant monocultures n Quality of top soil declining – pesticides q 1948– 50 million lbs. 7% loss to insects q 1965– 35 million lbs. q 1989– 806 million lbs. q 2000– 985 million lbs. 13% loss to insects n Agrochemicals changing soil composition

Why Don’t We Know This? n n Major cigarette companies are major food companies Grocery Manufacturers of America control food info Michael Pollan – “If it has a health claim, don’t eat it” $30 billion advertising for food – $10 billion for children

Conspiracy with USDA n Marion Nestle – Food Politics q Explains corporate control n Recommends: Eat less, eat fruits, vegetables and whole grains, avoid junk food q Following her advice would destroy industrial agriculture q And harm medical providers n Food companies control nutrition q And information q USDA supports agribusiness

Summary – Changing Times n Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically alter our future q Can’t have 10 -to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio any longer n At the core of the change will be a changed diet n Sustainability implies “measurable” Agrarianism q Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to industrialism q From 2% of employment farmers to 25% (or more) q U. S. will become more Agrarian – like it or not q Agrarianism implies health–of people, animals, landscapes, soils n Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost everything q Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle

Recommendations n 1. Learn – Ignorance of food system is appalling q Due to deliberate action of food industry and USDA q Learning includes understanding plight of workers & animals q Everyone must master nutrition n 2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels – 40% less n 3. Change your diet to a healthier one – starting NOW q Coming crisis cannot support current medical spending q Eat seasonally and locally n 4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farmers q Rebuild family farms n 5. Plant a backyard garden – Must see food as life

Wendell Berry – The Unsettling of America n “Earth’s growing numbers raises the specter of a famine more catastrophic than the world has ever seen. ” n Wendell Berry: …we should be at work overhauling all our assumptions about ourselves and what we have done…. If we are heading toward apocalypse, then obviously we must undertake an ordeal of preparation. We must cleanse ourselves of slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn to discipline ourselves, to restrain ourselves, to need less…. We must understand what the health of the earth requires, and we must put that before all other needs. . . let us undertake the labors of wisdom and make the necessary sacrifices of luxury and comfort”. – The Unsettling of America, 1977