The Electricity Technology Transformation Barbara Tyran Director Washington

The Electricity Technology Transformation Barbara Tyran Director, Washington Relations Center for Energy Workforce Development October 9, 2009

Our Mission… To conduct research on key issues facing the electricity sector…on behalf of its members, energy stakeholders, and society. © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

Our Members… • 450+ participants in more than 40 countries • EPRI members generate more than 90% of the electricity in the United States • International funding of more than 15% of EPRI’s research, development and demonstrations • Programs funded by more than 1, 000 energy organizations © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

Our Role… Help Move Technologies to the Commercialization Stage… Basic Research and Development Collaborative Technology Development Integration Application Technology Commercialization National Laboratories EPRI Suppliers Vendors Universities Technology Accelerator! © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

Presentation Overview § The Technology Challenge De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO 2 reduction targets Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

The Technology Challenge Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/k. Wh) Cost of Electricity 22 2050 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 2020 2007 6 4 2 0 0. 70 0. 60 0. 50 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) De-Carbonization © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 6 0. 10 0. 00

Presentation Overview § The Technology Challenge De-carbonize the electricity infrastructure and meet binding economy-wide CO 2 reduction targets Provide reliable, affordable, and environmentally responsible electricity § Meeting The Challenge Technically feasible with a full portfolio of generation options Decisions Over the Next Decade will Shape the Electricity Future of 2050 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

The CO 2 Challenge 8 Assumed Economy-wide CO 2 Reduction Target 7 Historical Emissions Billion tons CO 2 6 2005 = 5982 mm. T CO 2 2012 = 3% below 2005 (5803 mm. T CO 2) 2020 = 17% below 2005 (4965 mm. T CO 2) 5 Remainder of U. S. Economy 4 3 2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mm. T CO 2) 2050 = 83% below 2005 (1017 mm. T CO 2) 2 1 U. S. Electric Sector 0 1990 2000 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 83% Reduction in CO 2 emissions from 2005 2010 2020 8 2030 2040 2050

The Cost Challenge 18 U. S. Retail Price of Electricity Cents/k. Wh (in 2007 cents) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1950 Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years… what about the next 40 years? 1960 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 1970 1980 9 1990 2000 2010

The Electricity Technology Challenge § The Technology Challenge § Meeting the Challenge © 2009

U. S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 3500 2007 3000 2008 2009 EIA Base Case 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1995 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2000 2005 2010 11 2015 2020 2025 2030

2009 Prism U. S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 3500 3000 41% reduction in 2030 from 2005 level is technically feasible using a full portfolio of electric sector technologies 2500 2000 1500 Efficiency Technology Efficiency EIA Base Case Renewables Load Growth ~ 8% Additional Consumption Reduction by 2030 +0. 95%/yr None 20% Reduction in T&D Losses by 2030 Renewables 60 GWe by 2030 135 GWe by 2030 (15% of generation) Nuclear 12. 5 GWe New Build by 2030 No Retirements; 10 GWe New Build by 2020; 64 GWe New Build by 2030 Fossil Efficiency 40% New Coal, 54% New NGCCs by 2030 +3% Efficiency for 75 GWe Existing Fleet 49% New Coal; 70% New NGCCs by 2030 CCS None 90% Capture for New Coal + NGCC After 2020 Retrofits for 60 GWe Existing Fleet 500 1995 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2000 2005 2010 12 2015 Nuclear Fossil Efficiency CCS T&D Efficiency 1000 0 1990 EPRI Prism Target 41% 2020 2025 2030

2009 Prism – PEV and Electro-Technologies U. S. Electric Sector CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons) 3500 3000 Low-carbon generation enables electrification and CO 2 reductions in other sectors of economy 2500 Efficiency Renewables 2000 Nuclear Fossil Efficiency CCS 1500 PEV 1000 500 0 1990 Electro. Technologies EIA AEO Base Case EPRI Prism Target Electric Transportation None PHEVs by 2010 40% New Vehicle Share by 2025 3 x Current Non-Road Use by 2030 Electrotechnologies None Replace ~4. 5% Direct Fossil Use by 2030 Technology 1995 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2000 2005 2010 13 2015 2020 2025 2030

Generation by Fuel Source in 2030 7% 6% Renw 19% Nuclear Coal CCS Petroleum Gas CCS Nuclear Hydro Renewables 15% What if we LIMIT the. Renw 6% Generation PORTFOLIO? 50% Coal Gas 28% Coal Nuclear C+CCS 10% 28% Gas 17% 2% 1% 11% Prism 2030 4888 TWh EIA 2030 4669 TWh Prism 60% no- or low-carbon electricity by 2030 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

Technology Portfolios § Full Portfolio Coal and Gas CCS available Accelerated end-use efficiency § Limited Portfolio PEV’s can expand No CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) Nuclear production can expand No plug-in electric vehicles (PEV’s) Nuclear generation remains at existing levels © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

MERGE Economic Model § Optimization Model of Economic Activity and Energy Use through 2050 – Maximize Economic Wealth § Inputs – Energy Supply Technologies and Costs for Electric Generation and Non-Electric Energy § Constraints – Greenhouse Gas Control Scenarios – Energy Resources § Outputs – Economy-wide Impact of Technology and Carbon Constraints © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

MERGE U. S. Electric Generation Mix Aggressive Energy Efficiency Needed with Either Portfolio Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Solar Wind Hydro Biomass Nuclear 52% Increase in Demand Reduction with Limited Portfolio Hydro Generation Mix Gas Coal © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Nuclear Gas CCS Retrofit 17 New Coal + CCS

MERGE U. S. Electric Generation Mix Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. CCS Retrofit 18 New Coal + CCS

Insights - Renewables Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Solar Nuclear Wind Hydro Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal Either Portfolio > 20% Renewables by 2030 with New Coal> 50% Renewables by 2050 with Limited Portfolio + CCS Retrofit © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

Insights – Nuclear and CCS Limited Full Portfolio Gas Expands Rapidly 2010 -2020 if Uncertainty Exists Portfolio Demand Regarding Availability of New Nuclear and CCS post 2020 Demand Reduction Biomass Limited Portfolio – Gas Consumption Solar Hydro Increases 275% from 2010 to 2050 Wind Nuclear Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Wind CCS Retrofit 20 New Coal + CCS

2030 Generation Mix Remarkably different futures…and only 20 years away! Biomass Coal CCS Retrofit Wind Coal + CCS Gas Hydro Nuclear Limited Portfolio © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Full Portfolio 21

2050 Generation Mix Totally different futures in 2050 Biomass Solar Wind Gas Coal + CCS Biomass Hydro Nuclear Wind Hydro Gas Limited Portfolio © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Full Portfolio 22

MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results $220 Substantial increases in the cost of electricity $200 $180 $/Mwh (2007$) $160 $140 2050 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 210% $120 Full Portfolio $100 80% $80 $60 $40 2007 U. S. Average. Wholesale Electricity Cost 2007 U. S. Average Electricity Cost $20 $0 2020 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2030 2040 23 2050

MERGE De-carbonization Results Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/k. Wh) Cost of Electricity 22 20 MERGE Projections 2020 -2050 Limited Portfolio 18 16 2040 14 2040 12 2020 2030 2050 10 8 2020 2007 6 Full Portfolio 2030 4 2 0 0. 70 0. 60 0. 50 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) De-Carbonization © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 24 0. 10 0. 00

MERGE De-carbonization Results Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/k. Wh) Cost of Electricity 22 20 MERGE Projections 2020 -2050 18 16 14 2050 Limited High Cost to meet 2050 Reduction. Portfolio Target with >80% Generation Mix Gas and Renewables 12 2020 10 8 2020 2007 6 Full Portfolio 2040 2030 2040 2050 Full Portfolio 4 2 0 0. 70 0. 60 0. 50 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) De-Carbonization © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 25 0. 10 0. 00

Meeting the Challenge $220 $200 $180 $/Mwh (2007$) $160 $140 Technology Actions Based on Meeting the Limited Prism Technology Targets Portfolio Limited Portfolio RD&D and Deployment Challenge Full Portfolio $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 Full Technology Innovation to De-carbonize While Achieving a Cost of Electricity Portfolio. Near Today’s Level Innovation Challenge 2007 U. S. Average. Wholesale Electricity Cost 2007 U. S. Average Electricity Cost $20 $0 2020 © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 2030 2040 27 2050

Power Delivery & Utilization: energy demand is increasing… • 2008 Annual Energy Outlook – 30% increase in U. S. electricity consumption by 2030. – New load equivalent to 2006 electricity usage in California, Texas, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania combined! © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

Bringing it home…Consumer Electronics PLASMA TV SET TOP BOX 42” 250 W 30 W vs. 27” 100 W 30 W 2 set top boxes consume as much energy in one year as a refrigerator Consumes 2. 5 x more energy © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. = 29

Bringing the picture into focus… Digital Photo Frames 250 MW Power Plants* 1 per U. S. home… *250 MW plant can serve 160, 000 full homes © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

EPRI’s Living Laboratory Recently Featured in TIME © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.

Smart Grid State of the technology… • We are in the infancy in developing a smart grid • Smart grid can mean different things to different utilities • No standards for inclusive technologies • Smart capabilities vary from utility to utility © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 32

Smart Grid Where we want to be… • Smart power delivery infrastructure encompassing physical power, storage, advanced information technology and intelligent sensors and applications • Numerous impacts – Reliable grid operations when connecting to renewable resources – Dynamic grid adjustment to reduce losses and increase efficiency – On-line assessment to minimize reliability events © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 33

Intelli. Grid Identifying a smart grid and how to create it… • Methodology, technology tools, and standards recommendations • Information systems to support smart grid applications • Unbiased testing of technologies and products • Development of communications architecture that will enable interoperability © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 34

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks Efficient Building Systems Utility Communications Internet Consumer Portal & Building EMS Distribution Operations Dynamic Systems Control Advanced Metering Renewables PV Control Interface Plug-In Hybrids Data Management © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Distributed Generation & Storage 35 Smart End-Use Devices

Smart Grids and Local Energy Networks Efficient Building Systems Utility Communications Internet Consumer Portal & Building EMS Distribution Operations Dynamic Systems Control Advanced Metering Renewables PV Control Interface Plug-In Hybrids Data Management © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Distributed Generation & Storage 36 Smart End-Use Devices

Electric Transportation State of the technology… • PHEV technology is ready now • Hybrids remain dependent on combustible fuels • Existing challenges remain for fully electric vehicles • All electric PHEV 40 mile range could meet the transportation requirements for 80% of vehicles • Widespread adoption of PHEVs can reduce GHG emissions by 2050 the equivalent to removing 82. 5 million passenger cars from the road © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

Action Framework… Four Evolving Infrastructures Creating the Electricity Network of the Future © 2009

Conclusion Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/k. Wh) Cost of Electricity 22 MERGE Projections 2020 -2050 Electricity policy and technology actions Limited 18 Limited Portfolio over the next decade will to a great extent Portfolio 16 2040 shape the electricity future of 2050 14 20 12 2020 10 8 2020 2007 6 4 2 0 0. 70 Full Portfolio 2040 2030 2050 Full Portfolio Which Future Are You Creating? 0. 60 0. 50 0. 40 0. 30 0. 20 Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO 2 /MWh) De-Carbonization © 2009 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. 39 0. 10 0. 00