The Economic Outlook the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian
The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony Mc. Donald 4 December 2009
Outline • Pre-crisis Economic & Financial Market Conditions • The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis • The Policy Response to the Financial Crisis • The Economic Outlook • Tasmania and the Crisis • Medium term challenges and pressures 2
Chart 1: World Economic Growth Source: IMF and Treasury. 3
Chart 2: Merchandise World Trade Source: World Trade Organization (WTO) 4
Chart 3: US & Australia Stock Prices Source: Thomson Reuters 5
Chart 4: Corporate Bond Spreads Note: Find data that shows narrowing of spread, then widening, and then gradual reduction. Source: Bloomberg. 6
Chart 5: Commodity Price Index Note: To be changed to RBA Commodity Price Index Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. 7
Chart 6: Terms of Trade Note: Only latest forecast needed Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5302. 0 and Treasury. 8
Chart 7: Industrial Production United States euro area China Other East Asia and Japan Note: Other East Asia* excludes Vietnam, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Source: Relevant National Statistical Agencies and Treasury calculations. 9
Chart 8: IMF 2009 GDP Growth Advanced Source: International Monetary Fund. World 10
Chart 9: IMF research on dynamics of. Duration recession and recovery Amplitude Source: International Monetary Fund. 11
Chart 10: Official Cash Rate Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury. 12
Chart 11: Interest Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury. 13
Chart 12: Exchange Rates Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. 14
Chart 13: Composition of stimulus Source: Treasury. 15
Chart 14: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: GDP Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206. 0 and Treasury. 16
Chart 15: Estimated Impact of Stimulus: unemployment rate Forecasts Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0 and Treasury. 17
Chart 16: Contribution of fiscal stimulus to GDP Growth Source: Treasury. 18
Chart 17: International Comparison of GDP growth (year to June 2009) Source: International Monetary Fund. 19
Chart 18: Unemployment rate Note: Need to include OECD average Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0, Thomson Reuters and Treasury. 20
Chart 19: Confidence Businesses Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute, National Australia Bank, DX and OECD. Consumers 21
Chart 20: Retail Trade in Australia and major advanced economies Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501. 0 and Thomson Reuters. 22
Chart 21: Australian Retail Trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8501. 0. 23
Chart 22: Construction Work Done Source: ABS Catalogue Number 8755. 0. 24
Chart 23: China GDP Source: CEIC China database and Treasury. . 25
Chart 24: GDP growth Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206. 0 and Treasury. 26
Chart 25: Domestic Final Demand Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5206. 0 and Treasury. 27
Chart 26: Unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0. 28
Chart 27: Trend Unemployment Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0. 29
Chart 28: Gross Household disposable income per capita (current prices) Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5220. 0. 30
Chart 29: Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0. 31
Chart 30: Full Time Employment to Population Ratio Source: ABS Catalogue Number 6202. 0. 32
Chart 31: Observed Changes in Rainfall Reliability Source: Bureau of Rural Sciences. 33
Chart 32: Population settlement patterns Source: Center for International Earth Science Information Network 2005, Columbia University; and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT). Gridded Population of the World, Version 3. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. 34
Chart 33: China, India Convergence Source: The Conference Board Total Economy Database, IMF and Treasury. 35
The Economic Outlook & the Global Financial Crisis Tasmanian Economic Forum Tony Mc. Donald 4 December 2009
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