The Economic and Social Burden of Malaria Jeffrey

The Economic and Social Burden of Malaria Jeffrey Sachs & Pia Malaney James F. Casey Washington and Lee University October 16, 2017 caseyj@wlu. edu

How “bad” is Malaria? n Long before economists attempted to estimate the costs of malaria, natural selection had already demonstrated the phenomenal burden of the disease.

The Human Cost n n n 300 to 500 million clinical cases every year between one and three million deaths, mostly of children Every 40 seconds a child dies of malaria resulting in a daily loss of more than 2, 000 young lives worldwide. malaria the pre-eminent tropical parasitic disease and one of the top three killers among communicable diseases.

The need for intervention is increasing n With a rapidly growing population in regions with high malaria transmission, it has been estimated that in the absence of effective intervention strategies the number of malaria cases will double over the next 20 years.

The malaria burden is not evenly distributed. n n The Tropics Africa

The relationship between poverty and malaria n n n where malaria prospers most, human societies have prospered least. Poverty may promote malaria transmission malaria may cause poverty by impeding economic growth causality may run in both directions. tend to favor the explanation that causation runs in both directions, with the causal link from malaria to underdevelopment much more powerful than is generally appreciated.

Broad social and economic costs n n n Private and non-private medical costs and lost income – 1% of GDP This misses the most important aspects Two broad mechanisms q q Household behavior Macroeconomic costs

Long-term demographic consequences n n n Fertility theory Quantity-quality trade-off “lost” investment in HC

Human Capital n n Effects on Schooling Cognitive development Fetal development Returns to human capital are increasing in scale

Physical Capital n n n Loss of savings Fertility rates and savings S = I = d. K

Migration, Trade, and FDI n n n Adult immunity Suppression of economic linkages Tourism

Malaria and Other Illnesses n n Indirect effects may begin before birth Malaria and HIV

Looking to the Future n n Cost effective reduction of malaria burden is possible Virtuous cycle q q n Y = f(H) H = f(Y) $100 m to $4 b scale up in spending

“The Future” Revisited aka The Present n Mortality q n https: //ourworldindata. org/malaria/#deaths-due-tomalaria WHY? q q https: //ourworldindata. org/malaria/#funding-formalaria-control https: //www. si. com/vault/2006/05/01/8376263/not hing-but-nets

The Future, Again, 2017 - ? n https: //iris. unive. it/retrieve/handle/10278/3690 760/109005/ndl 2017 -044. pdf