The Diversionary Theory of War Ostrom and Job
The Diversionary Theory of War Ostrom and Job
Research Question What factors explain when leaders use force for political purposes? 1) Leaders’ have a desire to stay in office 2) When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive 3) A leader’s approval increases following a use of military force—rally around the flag effect
Diversionary behavior Leaders use force to divert attention away from domestic turmoil Aspects of domestic turmoil include internal conflict (protests, riots, etc. ) and economic woes (high inflation, etc. ) Political incentives: approval, elections
Ostrom and Job’s Study Cybernetic Decision-making Model Leaders consider a limited set of critical factors (unlike rational choice) U. S. Presidents share three goals (19481976) A preference for action Anti-communism Containment of the USSR
Environments the President monitors International: level of international tension (+), strategic balance (-), war involvement (-) Domestic: public attitude toward international tension (-) and strategic balance (+), public aversion to war (-), economic misery (+) Political: Public approval (+), lack of political success (+), elections (+)
Findings The Political environment has the greatest impact on the decision to use force. U. S. Presidents are more likely to use force when their overall approval is high. Kennedy was the most likely to use force, and Truman the least likely
Potential Problems No consideration of opportunity to use force (such as rivalry) Limited time frame Truncation of events (looking at only major uses of force) Are uses of force related over time?
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