The Discipline of Intelligence Collection Reed Foster Murdoch

The Discipline of Intelligence Collection Reed Foster Murdoch University 11 November 2019

Mandatory Quote “If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favourable. ” - Lucius Annaeus Seneca

APRA AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE 2019 Disciplines of Intelligence

Intel Collection Defined

Disciplines of Intelligence HUMINT Human Intelligence SIGINT Signals Intelligence IMINT Imagery Intelligence MASINT Measurement and Signatures Intelligence OSINT Open-Source Intelligence

Focus Disciplines HUMINT Human Intelligence SIGINT Signals Intelligence IMINT Imagery Intelligence MASINT Measurement and Signatures Intelligence OSINT Open-Source Intelligence

HUMINT Examples HUMINT Human Intelligence � Fundraisers � Academics � Associates � Representatives � Colleagues � Friends � Family

OSINT Examples OSINT � Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) � Third Party Databases � Government Reports � Academic Papers � Conferences � Television � Newspapers � Trade Associations Open-Source Intelligence

HUMINT Explored Pros � First-hand accounts of relationships and networks of interest � Acquisition of information potentially unavailable in the open-source Cons � High potential for misinterpretation � Time and resource cost of network development � Limited by location and perspective

OSINT Explored Pros � Vast array of information sources and types accessible � Rapid exploitation of information linkages � Social media providing means for validation Cons � Misinformation and propaganda � Inconsistent drivers for information release � Volume of available data

Key Takeaways: Disciplines � HUMINT has been superseded by OSINT as the preferred method of intelligence gathering, underpinned by the proliferation and availability of data-driven resources � Source rating can provide a means to segment the value and validity of gathered information � Evolving intelligence gathering mechanisms such as GEOINT (Esri, Google Earth) and SOCMINT (Facebook, Linked. In) provide additional avenues of data validation, but of limited utility if used in isolation

APRA AUSTRALIA CONFERENCE 2019 The Intelligence Collection Cycle

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection � Identification of information needs and requirements � Verification of proposed methodology Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production � Back brief

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection � Utilisation of Source Book � Contextual data pulls � Source rating and validation Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection � Refining and reducing raw data � Identification of gaps in data Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production � Synthesis of multiple data types

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production � Final comparison with original planning and direction � Emphasis on analysis alongside reporting

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection � Consideration of audience � Multiple approaches for multiple end-users Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production � Data sensitivity

Intelligence Cycle Planning & Direction Feedback Collection � Assessment of end-product versus requirements � Critical mechanism for improvement Dissemination Processing Analysis & Production � Capturing ‘lessons learned’

Key Takeaways: Intel Cycle � Utilisation of task organisation briefing as a ‘handrail’ for all phases of an intelligence collection effort � Challenge to ensure that a data-driven approach does not lose key context and explanatory power; avoiding ‘a wealth of data and a poverty of insight’ � Analysts are often not asked to think strategically, but the ability to align tactical efforts with strategic priorities remains critical to organisational success

Sources Intelligence Studies: The Intelligence Cycle, United States Naval War College, accessed 31 October 2019, <https: //usnwc. libguides. com/c. php? g=494120&p=3381427> Krohley, N 2017, ‘The Intelligence Cycle is Broken. Here’s How to Fix It’, Modern War Insititute at West Point, accessed 31 October 2019, <https: //mwi. usma. edu/intelligence-cycle-broken-heres-fix/> Best, C 2011, ‘Challenges in Open Source Intelligence’, 2011 European Intelligence and Security Informatics Conference, accessed 31 October 2019, <https: //ieeexplore. ieee. org/stamp. jsp? tp=&arnumber=6061192> Day, D 2004, ‘The difficulties of humint’, The Space Review, accessed 31 October 2019, <http: //www. thespacereview. com/article/161/2> Sano, J 2015, ‘The Change Shape of HUMINT’, Intelligencer, Vol. 21, No. 3 Fall/Winter 2019, accessed 31 October 2019, <https: //www. afio. com/publications/SANO%20 John%20 on%20 The%20 Changing%20 Shape%20 of%20 HUMINT%20 Pages% 20 from%20 INTEL_FALLWINTER 2015_Vol 21_No 3_FINAL. pdf>