The Development of IMACLIMS Brasil William Wills Ph
The Development of IMACLIM-S Brasil William Wills, Ph. D wwills@lima. coppe. ufrj. br
Cooperation CIRED - COPPE • Emilio meets Hourcade and finishes his Ph. D at EHESS in 1979 • Some Brazilians researchers come to work at CIRED after 1995: among them Ricardo Dutra, Amaro Olimpio, André Pereira, Carolina Dubeux, William Wills • Centro. Clima e CIRED strengthen their cooperation to develop IMACLIM-S BR in 2010: Julien Lefevre and William Wills start to develop the Brazilian version of Imaclim • 2011 -2015: Maps project - Very important financial support to develop the model – Goal is to develop national dialogue platforms with strong modelling – South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru • 2013: Projeto ICI/BMU: Biofuels – Land Use – Water – Food Security Nexus
Mitigation Scenarios for Brazil - 2030 William Wills Apoio
IES-Brasil Project • Demanded by the Ministry of Environment of Brazil • Coordinated by the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change • Research execution coordinated by COPPE, with other research institution as partners • Objective is to evaluate macroeconomic and social implications of mitigation scenarios in Brazil to provide the government robust information to propose new pledges in Paris 2015 (COP 21) • Involves 70 stakeholders: government, industry, NGOs, specialists, etc • Stakeholders defines scenarios to be explored and assists researchers to calculate mitigation options costs and potentials for each sector.
Modelling mitigation measures in IMACLIM-S_BR • Stakeholders are very worried about the precision of mitigation potentials and costs and the impact in their sectors • Small technical groups formed to discuss BU modeling in details • Sectorial disaggregation is important (16 sectors) • Need to embark sectorial information: • Technical coefficients changes according to Bottom-up, sectorial specific information: • Fuel changes or fuel economy: technical coefficients are changed according to sectoral specific information for each measure • Investments – Capital intensity of the sector changes according to sectoral specific information for each measure • Imaclim tries to guarantee the alignment among different models/projections (softlink) • Income distribution issues not at the core of the discussion, but they were interested to see the results (3 income classes)
Cooperation CIRED-COPPE
Methodological Approach Mitigation Measures Identification Results Costs and Abatement Potential Sectorial models simulation Correction of Level of Activity on sectorial models and balance between supply and demand Simulation of the measures in IMACLIM Costs and potentials verified and/or corrected
Reference Scenario - Government Plan • World – GDP growth • 2013 -2020: 3. 8% per year • 2021 -2030: 3. 2% per year • Average 2013 -2030: 3. 6% per year • Brazil –GDP Growth • 2013 -2020: 3. 7% per year • 2021 -2030: 4. 1% per year • Average 2013 -2030: 3. 9% per year • Oil Price • 85 US$/barril
Reference Scenario - Government Plan • Exchange rate • 2. 20 R$/US$ • Population • 2014: 200 Million • 2030: 223 Million • Active population from 45. 8% in 2005 to 49. 7% in 2030 • GDP Composition: % VA 2010 2030 Agriculture 5. 3% 5. 6% Industry 28. 1% 26. 4% Services 66. 6% 68. 0%
Scenarios Description Scenario Description CPG Reference Scenario – Follow trends from Copenhagen Pledges MA 1 -T Mitigation Scenario 1 – (20 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) MA 2 -T Mitigation Scenario 2 – (100 US$ carbon tax + mitigation measures) Scenario Description (Still working on them) MA 1 -N Mitigation Scenario 1 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax) MA 2 -N Mitigation Scenario 2 – (mitigation measures, no Carbon Tax)
Mitigation Scenario 1 SECTOR WASTE SERVICES ENERGY TRANSPORT AFOLU INDUSTRY MITIGATION MEASURE Methane destruction > Reference scenario Moreefficient light bulbs Sugar Cane Bagasse Wind Power Traffic management Bike ways Energy efficiency programs for light vehicles Ethanol: + 6 Billion liters Biodiesel – B 10 BRT Energy efficiency programs for heavy vehicles Biological nitrogen fixation (Corn) Pasture restoration crop-livestock-forestry integration systems(+2 M ha) Aforestation – 12. 5 M ha Reforestation – Atlantic forest Sugar cane area increase (M 1) Cement: Reduction from 3, 50 GJ/t clinquer in 2010 to 3, 1 in 2030 and increase co -processing in 75% from 2010 level Steel: 2% reduction in energy intensity related to 2010
Macroeconomic Results 2005 2013 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T Population (10^6) 185 223 223 GDP (10^12 R$2005) 2. 14 3. 24 5. 55 5. 54 5. 46 3. 87% 3. 81% -0. 2% -1. 5% -15. 8% -33. 4% 1296 1025 GDP Growth per year (%) 196 MA 2 -T 3. 88% GDP variation in relation to CPG in 2030 GHG emission reduction in relation to CGP in 2030 GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 eq. /year) 2351 1567 1539 23. 8 GDP per capita (10^3 R$2005) 11. 57 16. 52 24. 87 3 22. 50
Macroeconomic Results 2005 Total Jobs (10^6) 91. 21 100. 06 127. 3 127. 7 128. 1 Unemployment rate(%) 2013 CPG-2030 9. 90% 6. 70% Price index in relation to 2005 (%) Trade Balance (10^6 R$2005) 4. 4% MA 1 -T 4. 2% MA 2 -T 3. 9% 16. 6% 20. 1% 17. 2% 78. 8 3. 90 40. 1 38. 6 77. 9 Trade Balance (% GDP) 3. 70% 0. 12% 0. 70% 1. 43% Investment rate (% of GDP) 15. 5% 18. 2% 20. 8% 20. 2% 20. 7% Total Investments (10^12 R$2005) 0. 33 0. 59 1. 15 1. 12 1. 14 Total Mitigation Investments 2015 -2030 (10^9 R$2005) Mitigation investments in 2030 (10^6 R$2005) Mit. Invest. /GDP in 2030 174. 9 537. 7 20. 7 82. 9 0. 37% 1. 52%
s ( Co Kte al p) (K Na te O t Oi ura il ( p) l D l G Kt ep er a s iva ( ) t K El ive tep Tr ec s ( ) an tri Kt sp cit ep or y ( ) t ( Kt pk ep m ) Pu lp Ag +tkm an ri d cul ) Pa tu r p Ce er ( e m M en t) t No St (M n ee t) Fe l ( rro M us t) (M Ch t) em ica Re st Mi l o f I ning nd us Se try rv ice s as Bi om Macroeconomic Results Phisical production - 2005 = 1 5. 00 4. 50 4. 00 3. 50 3. 00 2. 50 2. 00 1. 50 1. 00 0. 50 BY-2005 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T MA 2 -T
Net Exports 60, 000 50, 000 40, 000 30, 000 20, 000 10, 000 - 20, 000 - 30, 000 - 40, 000 - 50, 000 BY-2005 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T Biomass (Ktep) Oil (Ktep) Natural Gas Oil (Ktep) Derivatives (Ktep) MA 2 -T 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 BY-2005 2, 000 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T Pulp and Paper Cement (M t) - 2, 000 (M t) - 4, 000 - 6, 000 Steel (M t) Non Ferrous (M t) MA 2 -T
Macroeconomic Results Income Classes definitions Income Class Minimum wages in base year (125 US$ in 2005) Population distribution Class 1 Up to 2 mw Poorest 15% Class 2 from 3 to 10 mw Next 55% Class 3 More than 10 mw Richest 30%
Macroeconomic Results GDP per capita and average income by class GDP per Capita(R$ 2005) Total Base year - 2005 CPG - 2030 Average growth per year MA 1_T Average growth per year MA 2_T Average growth per year Average Income by Class (R$ 2005) Class 1 11, 59 Class 2 1, 169 4, 421 Class 3 26, 360 24, 87 3. 1% 3, 251 4. 2% 10, 786 46, 851 3. 6% 2. 3% 23, 83 2. 9% 3, 112 4. 0% 10, 336 45, 012 3. 5% 2. 2% 22, 50 2. 7% 2, 977 3. 8% 9, 882 43, 082 3. 3% 2. 0%
GHG Emissions (Mt CO 2 eq. ) 1600 1500 Mt CO 2 eq. 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 CPG MA 1 -T MA 2 -T 2010 1236 Emission reductions % MA 1 -T MA 2 -T 2015 1206 1115 1078 2010 0% 0% 2020 1240 1120 1026 2015 8% 11% 2025 1313 1233 1041 2020 10% 17% 2030 1539 1296 1025 2025 6% 21% 2030 16% 33%
GHG Emission (Mt CO 2 eq. ) CPG-2030 700 600 AFOLU 500 Transport Industry 400 Energy Supply 300 Residential 200 Services Agriculture 100 Waste 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 MA 2 -T MA 1 -T 700 600 500 AFOLU 600 AFOLU Transport 500 Industry 400 Energy Supply 300 Transport 400 Energy Supply Residential 300 Residential 200 Services 100 Agriculture Waste 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO 2 eq. ) Transport 800 400 700 350 600 300 500 CPG 400 MA 1 -T 300 MA 2 -T 200 Mt CO 2 eq. AFOLU 250 200 0 0 2025 MA 2 -T 100 50 2015 MA 1 -T 150 100 2010 CPG 2030 2015 2025 2030 Energy Supply 350 160 300 140 250 120 200 CPG 150 MA 1 -T 100 MA 2 -T 50 Mt CO 2 eq. Industry 2020 CPG 100 MA 1 -T 80 MA 2 -T 60 40 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GHG Emission by Sector(Mt CO 2 eq. ) Residential 100 56 90 54 80 52 70 CPG 60 MA 1 -T 50 MA 2 -T 40 Mt CO 2 eq. Waste 48 MA 1 -T 46 MA 2 -T 44 42 30 2015 2020 2025 40 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030 Services Agriculture 6 30 5 20 CPG 15 MA 1 -T 10 MA 2 -T 5 Mt CO 2 eq. 25 Mt CO 2 eq. CPG 50 4 CPG 3 MA 1 -T 2 MA 2 -T 1 0 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Some indicators. . . ton CO 2 eq. /capita 14. 00 12. 00 12. 71 10. 00 8. 00 8. 07 8. 51 7. 20 6. 00 5. 73 4. 00 2005 2010 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T MA 2 -T ton CO 2 eq. /GDP (10^3 US$) 3. 00 2. 50 2. 00 2. 42 1. 50 1. 00 1. 13 0. 50 0. 63 0. 55 0. 46 CPG-2030 MA 1 -T MA 2 -T 2005 2010
Brazil 2005 2. 4 Brazil 2010 Brazil CPG-2030 Brazil MA 1 Brazil MA 2 Energy Emissions – New Policies Scenario International Energy Agency - World Energy Outlook 2013
Thank You! wwills@lima. coppe. ufrj. br
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