The Demographic Transition Model The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model • A descriptive generalization that depicts most countries’ development from a preindustrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond • Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth • Based on known facts rather than general assumption

The Demographic Transition Model As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?

Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition • High birth rate and high death rate • Two rates are nearly equal • Death rate fluctuating likely due to war and disease • Involves a low-income agricultural economy • Children are less of an expense and more of an asset • Population growth is very slow • Population resides in rural areas • Countries? Core, periphery or semiperiphery?

Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition • • Birth rate remains high Death rate begins to fall rapidly Results in population explosion Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances • Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases • This stage characterizes nations in early development • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition • Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives • Increased standards of living • Rate of Natural Increase is falling • The cost of children is increasing • Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate • Population still increasing relatively quickly • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition • Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate • Rate of Natural Increase is low • Population growth is low and stable • Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought • Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’ • Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining • The population is declining • Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries • Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Relationship to Population Pyramids • By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that particular country is in and vice versa • In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted • Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline

Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable

Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition

Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition

Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

Statistics (2007) • • • Canada: BR 11; DR 7; IMR 5; LE 80; DT 84. 3 United States: BR 14; DR 8; IMR 7; LE 78; DT 79. 2 China: BR 12; DR 7; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 111. 28 India: BR 24; DR 8; IMR 58; LE 64; DT 44. 35 Indonesia: BR 21; DR 7; IMR 34; LE 69; DT 59. 57 Brazil: BR 21; DR 6; IMR 27; LE 72; DT 57 Mexico: BR 21; DR 5; IMR 21; LE 75; DT 61. 29 United Arab Emirates: BR 17; DR 2; IMR 9; LE 79; DT 18. 26 Australia: BR 13; DR 6; IMR 5; LE 81; DT 57. 33 Afghanistan: BR 47; DR 21; IMR 166; LE 42; DT 26. 65