The Demographic Transition Model Riley Dudek Nyah Ebanks

The Demographic Transition Model Riley Dudek & Nyah Ebanks

Examples

General Idea The Demographic Transition is a process with several stages, and every country is in one of them. Once a country moves from one stage of the process to the next, it does not revert to an earlier stage. In other words, this model is irreversible. It involves historical population trends from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system.

Stage 1: Low Growth Stage one applied to most of the world before the Industrial Revolution. Both birth rates and death rates were high, and they fluctuated rapidly according to natural events. As a result, the natural rate of increase was essentially zero, so the population size was unchanged. Contraception and family planning were nonexistent, therefore birth rates were only limited by the ability of women to bear children. No country remains in stage one today.

Stage 2: High Growth Stage two is characterized by a sudden decrease in a country’s death while the birth rate remains high. The changes leading to this stage were initiated by the Agricultural Revolution. The total population of a country in this stage will rise because births outnumber deaths, rather than the birth rate rising alone. The decrease in death rate is attributed to significant improvements in overall health. Although most countries have continued on to stage four, there a number of countries that are still in stage two due to social and economic reasons.

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model is the stage where most of the world currently sits. To advance from stage 2 to 3, a country’s CBR will drop at a rapid rate, with the CDR trailing behind. Although the population continues to grow, it does so much slower than before in that the gap between the CBR and CDR is less, causing a lower Natural Rate of Increase, or NRI. The probable cause for the sudden decline of the CBR is a change in social values and beliefs.

Stage 4: Low Growth Stage 4 of the model is easy to identify because of ZPG, or Zero Population Growth. ZPG is achieved when the Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate become equivalent or extremely close to that. This causes population growth to come to a standstill, which can be credited mostly to women following career paths and putting off marriage and having children to pursue that dream. Gay marriage is also a contributing factor.

Stage 5? Some geographers argue that there is a potential Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model characterized by a decrease in the population. The cause of this decrease would be an increase in travel and poverty, which would ultimately cause disease, wiping out portions of the population. This happened in the past with Cholera and the Black Plague, where large fractions of the population were killed off by disease.

Example Currently, Cameroon is in the beginning of Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model with an extremely high birth rate and relatively low death rate. One way for the country to prevent overpopulation in the future is to become antinatalist.

Example Morocco has progressed through stages 1 and 2 of the demographic transition relatively quickly. When this country transitioned into stage 3, the crude birth rate dropped sharply. Also, the crude death rate fell, but at a much slower rate than in stage 2.