The Delphi Technique an Overview by Dr Phil

The Delphi Technique an Overview by Dr. Phil Davidson RESEARCH METHODOLOGY SIG April 12, 2018

Welcome to the Delphi Technique Agenda: • Characteristics of the Delphi Technique • Origins of the Delphi Technique • Theoretical Framework • The Methodology • Obstacles Faced by Students and Faculty • Application Examples of the Delphi process • Different types of Delphi designs • Q&A

Characteristics of the Delphi Technique “Delphi is the name of a set of procedures for eliciting and refining [a consensus of] opinions of a group of people. In practice, the procedures would be used with a group of experts or especially knowledgeable individuals” (Dalkey, 1967, p. 1). Turoff and Linstone (1975) added to the definition of Delphi, describing it as “A method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem” (Linstone, & Turoff, 1975, p. 3). Qualifier: The Delphi Technique seeks consensus of a group of experts, but the actual research focuses on anonymity of the participants to one another to avoid issues of pressure or groupthink.

Origins of the Delphi Technique • “Delphi” referring to the important oracle in ancient Greece, located in Delphi. • Delphic Oracle was the voice of the Apollo. • Forecasts of future events. • 1950’s: RAND Corporation under direction of the U. S. Air Force, develop the Delphi Technique. Purpose? To FORECAST how many atomic bombs Russia would have to deliver to completely destabilize the U. S. infrastructure. Qualifier: "The key purpose for using the Delphi method remains the collection of informed judgment on issues that are largely unexplored, difficult to define, highly context and expertise specific, [and] future-oriented" (Fletcher & Marchildon, 2014, p. 3).

Theoretical Framework • Prediction theory is theoretical framework supporting research using the Delphi Technique. • Kaplan, Skogstad, and Girshick (1950), relied heavily on the work of Mc. Gregor (1938), and Cantril (1938), but focused primarily on the process of improvement of prediction. • Kaplan et al. focused on precision of prediction and how that might be improved. The theoretical foundation of the accuracy of prediction (prediction theory) appears to depend on a wide set of variables, including the individual and that individual’s knowledge background, preferences, and biases [back to the issues of experts and expertise]. • Mc. Gregor (1938). Mc. Gregor examined the concept of predictions as a form of psychological inference. • Cantril (1938) elaborated on Mc. Gregor’s work, dealing with the issue of validity and the certainty of predictions.

The Methodology A tool to use forecasting possible future solutions for problems that are unclear or data is missing. Usually considered a qualitative tool.

Obstacles Faced by Students and Faculty 1. Future focused Delphi is not appropriate if the problem is clear and the student wants to determine “best methods. ” 2. Expertise of panel members 3. Interaction of student research to expert panel 4. Validation of questionnaires One of the biggest challenges is finding experts. I may spend more time vetting my expert panel than actually doing the research. Students frequently want to used “experienced” rather than “expert” participants. The Nominal Group Technique may be a better choice in those situations. The student researcher needs to be an active participant with the panel, adding new information, and collating information between rounds. Delphi commonly uses questionnaires. How will student validate those?

Application of the Delphi Technique Roßmann et al. (2017). Big Data Analytics and SCM to 2035 Gordon and Pease (2006). Real Time Delphi Keller & Von der Gracht (2014). Classical Delphi focused on Information communication technology (ICT) to the year 2020.

Different Delphi Techniques (not complete) Classical Delphi Disaggregative Delphi e. Delphi Policy Delphi Modified Delphi Real-Time Delphi

R ef er en ce s Baker, J. , Lovell, K. , & Harris, N. (2006). How expert are the experts? An exploration of the concept of 'expert' within Delphi panel techniques. Nurse Researcher, 14(1), 59 -70. Cantril, H. (1938). The prediction of social events. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33(3), 364 -389. doi: 10. 1037/h 0063206 Dalkey, N. C. (1967, October 11 -12). Delphi. Paper presented at the Long Range Forecasting Methodology, Alamogordo, NM. Fletcher, A. J. , & Marchildon, G. P. (2014). Using the Delphi method of qualitative, participatory action research in health leadership. International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 13(2014), 1 -18. Gordon, T. , & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73(4), 321 -333. doi: 10. 1016/j. techfore. 2005. 09. 005 Kaplan, A. , Skogstad, A. L. , & Girshick, M. A. (1950). The prediction of social and technological events. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 14(1), 93 -110 Keller, J. , & Von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 85, 81 -92. doi: 10. 1016/j. techfore. 2013. 07. 010 Linstone, H. A. , & Turoff, M. (Eds. ). (1975). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Boston, MA: Addison Wesley Publishing. Mc. Gregor, D. (1938). The major determinants of the prediction of social events. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33(2), 179 -204. doi: 10. 1037/h 0062931 Mc. Kenna, H. P. , Keeney, S. , & Hasson, F. (2011). The Delphi Technique in nursing and health research. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons. Roßmann, B. , Canzaniello, A. , Gracht, H. v. d. , & Hartmann, E. (2017). The future and social impact of big data analytics in supply chain management: Results from a Delphi study [in press]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. doi: 10. 1016/j. techfore. 2017. 10. 005 Sackman, H. (1975). Delphi critique. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books.

Q&A Session

Upcoming Research Methodology SIG Webinars Date April 26 May 10 June 21 Topic Mix Methods Quantitative Experimental Quantitative Non-experimental Leader Dr. Ryan Rominger Dr. Brian Sloboda Dr. Armando Paladino and Dr. Ruzanna Topchyan July 19 August 16 September 13 September 27 Phenomenology Auto Ethnography Grounded Theory Narrative Inquiry Dr. Karen Johnson Dr. Jim Lane Dr. Mark Mc. Caslin Dr. Ryan Rominger and Dr. Jim Lane October 11 Quantitative Measure Development of Surveys Chara Price November 8 Webinar Times are 4 -5 PM Phoenix Time. Action Research Dr. Mansureh Kebritchi