The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project DDPP Investigating transparent

The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) Investigating transparent national-scale pathways consistent with the 2°C target Henri WAISMAN – Iddri henri. waisman@iddri. org

GENERAL PRINCIPLES

Objectives Understand demonstrate how Ø individual countries can transition to a low-carbon economy Ø the world can meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. q • • Benefits of the approach Credibility and appropriation by national stakeholders Structured and detailed dialogue btw countries on transformations Articulation between short-term and long-term National and global enabling conditions q Challenges of the appraoch • National-scale analysis / global-scale constraints • Expert-based, policy-relevant assessment / model forecasts

Organization q An initiative of IDDRI and SDSN – 15 countries (70% of 2010 CO 2 emissions) Ø 15 Country Research Teams acting independently of their governments § Expert-based judgments § Country-scale models § Policy relevance

Approach Elaborate national, bottom-up and long-term decarbonization pathways towards the 2°C target (DDPs) q Development & mitigation pathways Ø national circumstances : socio-economic conditions, development priorities, infrastructure stocks, resource endowments … q Transparent pathways Ø sectorally disaggregated and explicit transformations q A backcasting approach to 2050 Ø address the tension btw initial situation and LT demanding target

Methodology q « What are the internally coherent national pathways that can satisfy the D&M objectives? » • No ex-ante allocation of the 2°C target • 2050 vision as guidelines for the design of pathways = development goals + benchmarks on national emissions • Several pathways to 2050 Ø Iterative approach for the elaboration of national DDPs Adjusting progressively the pathways in function of the D&M targets by discussing the building blocks of the transformations

Methodology q « What is the content of the transformation? » • Informed by expert-based assessments • Mobilize bottom-up expertise • Dialogue with policymakers • Comprehensive stories • Quantification of D&M drivers across sectors Ø Detailed and structured representation of national DDPs « Dashboard » = Quantified, transparent & internally coherent transformations

Full 1 st phase report available at www. deepdecarbonization. org

THE WAY FORWARD

The next phase of DDPP (mid-2015) § Elaborate on the national decarbonization pathways Ø Revised technical and structural assumptions Ø Emission reductions as an output § Analyze in further details Ø the twin objectives of development and deep decarbonization; Ø the socio-economic aspects of deep decarbonization; Ø national and international financial requirements; Ø the mapping of enabling conditions (incl policy framework) and disabling conditions (risks of lock-in, obstacles for implementation)

What role for 2050 DDPs in a global climate deal? The complementarity between DDPs and INDCs q INDCs to 2025/2030 vs. DDPs in 2050 Ø Long-term pathways give benchmarks for thinking short-term targets q Heterogeneous/partial content of INDCs vs. society-wide and transparent DDPs Ø Shared vision of the content of transformations behind INDCs q Legally binding INDCs vs. Informative, Non-binding DDPs Ø Continuation of discussions after 2015