The Danish Property Market The Danish Property Federation

  • Slides: 25
Download presentation
The Danish Property Market The Danish Property Federation

The Danish Property Market The Danish Property Federation

Building Stock 2 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: April 2020

Building Stock 2 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: April 2020

Property Investment Market [PROCENTDEL] 38% [PROCENTDEL] Office Retail 22% Industry 3 Residential Source: The

Property Investment Market [PROCENTDEL] 38% [PROCENTDEL] Office Retail 22% Industry 3 Residential Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: April 2020

Dwelling Stock divided into Types of Ownership 4 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market

Dwelling Stock divided into Types of Ownership 4 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: 2008 and April 2020

Type of rent in PRS 5 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note:

Type of rent in PRS 5 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: August 2020

Levels of market rent in Denmark 6 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics

Levels of market rent in Denmark 6 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics Note: June 2020

Economic Vacancy for Office 14. 00 12. 00 8. 00 6. 00 4. 00

Economic Vacancy for Office 14. 00 12. 00 8. 00 6. 00 4. 00 2. 00 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 89 19 19 88 19 PERCENT 10. 00 7 Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, IPD Danish Property Index and Oline-ED Statistics Note: January 1988 to April 2020 Data break between October 2013 and January 2014 due to differences in methodology

Economic Vacancy Rates 25. 00 20. 00 PERCENT 15. 00 10. 00 5. 00

Economic Vacancy Rates 25. 00 20. 00 PERCENT 15. 00 10. 00 5. 00 0. 00 Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Office 2007 Retail 2008 2009 2010 Industry 8 2011 2012 Residential 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics, IPD Danish Property Index and Ejendomstorvet -ED Statistics Note: January 2000 to April 2020 Data break between October 2013 and January 2014 due to differences in methodology

Dwellings without Person Registration 10. 0 Dwellings without person registration (percent) 9. 0 8.

Dwellings without Person Registration 10. 0 Dwellings without person registration (percent) 9. 0 8. 0 7. 0 6. 0 5. 0 4. 0 3. 0 19811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013201520172019 Denmark Copenhagen and Frederiksberg 9 Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 1981 to 2019

Started Construction 14, 000 12, 000 Area (1. 000 sq. m. ) 10, 000

Started Construction 14, 000 12, 000 Area (1. 000 sq. m. ) 10, 000 8, 000 6, 000 4, 000 2, 000 0 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 Commercial and other constructions 10 Residential Source: 1949 -2015: Statistics Denmark 2016 -2021: Dansk Byggeri Note: 1949 to 2021

1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943

1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Completed houses Residential construction by builders 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Private Social rental housing 11 Public Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 1917 to 2019

Residential construction by type 40000 35000 20000 15000 10000 5000 45 19 47 19

Residential construction by type 40000 35000 20000 15000 10000 5000 45 19 47 19 49 19 51 19 53 19 55 19 57 19 59 19 61 19 63 19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 20 17 20 19 19 43 0 19 Completed houses 30000 Detached houses Terraced, linked or semi-detahed houses 12 Multi-dwelling houses Other buildings Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 1943 to 2019

1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942

1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Average floor area (m 2) Investment Property sold 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Farm houses Detached houses Terranced, linked or demi-detached houses 13 Multi-dwelling houses Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 1916 to 2019

Investment Property sold 1800 1600 Units of sold property 1400 1200 1000 800 600

Investment Property sold 1800 1600 Units of sold property 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Business properties (office and retail) 14 Larger residential properties Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 1949 to 2019

Investment Property Prices 700 600 Price index (1995=100) 500 400 300 200 100 0

Investment Property Prices 700 600 Price index (1995=100) 500 400 300 200 100 0 199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018 Larger residential properties Business properties (office and retail) 15 Source: Statistics Denmark Note: January 1992 to December 2018 The indices are based on nominal square meter prices

Real Price Index for Detached Houses 250. 0 230. 0 210. 0 1995=100 190.

Real Price Index for Detached Houses 250. 0 230. 0 210. 0 1995=100 190. 0 170. 0 150. 0 130. 0 110. 0 90. 0 70. 0 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 16 Source: 1971 -1995: Danmarks Nationalbank and Statistics Denmark 1995 -2019: The Association of Danish Mortgage Banks Note: 1971 to 2019

Net Lending by Mortgage Banks Mia. Dkk. 60. 0 50. 0 40. 0 30.

Net Lending by Mortgage Banks Mia. Dkk. 60. 0 50. 0 40. 0 30. 0 20. 0 10. 0 -10. 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 17 Source: The Association of Danish Mortgage Banks Note: January 1995 to Juli 2019

Rent and Residential Property Prices Relative to the Wage Rate Development 400 375 350

Rent and Residential Property Prices Relative to the Wage Rate Development 400 375 350 325 300 1995=100 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rent/wages Residential property prices/wages (Denmark) 18 Residential property prices/wages (Copenhagen) Source: The Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and Statistics Denmark Note: January 1995 to June 2020 There was a change in the make up of the rent index between 2015 Q 3 and 2015 Q 4

Rent Level and Vacancy for Offices in Copenhagen Vacancy Rate (percent) Rent Level (euro/sqm.

Rent Level and Vacancy for Offices in Copenhagen Vacancy Rate (percent) Rent Level (euro/sqm. ) 12. 0 250 240 10. 0 230 220 8. 0 210 6. 0 200 190 4. 0 180 170 2. 0 160 0. 0 150 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Vacancy rate Rent level 19 Source: Ejendomsforeningen Danmark og Sadolin & Albæk from July 2015. Data from Oline-ED Statistics and Sadolin & Albæk before July 2015. Note: January 1997 to January 2018. New source from July 2015 for vacancy rate.

20 ris on Lo nd Pa o h ric Zu ls O lm t

20 ris on Lo nd Pa o h ric Zu ls O lm t ur kf ho oc k St n M ila an Fr h lin D ub ic M un in ki el s H ad rid m da w sa ar M ls se n en na er st Am W Vi t ge n Be rli us Br pe s ha op en C n t ue ag da Bu Pr bo Li s es ch ar Bu Euro/square metre per annum Prime Office Rents in Europe 1, 600 1, 400 1, 200 1, 000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: Knight Frank Research og Real Capital Analytics Note: 2014

Real Total Return 21 Source: The Danish Property Federation, IPD Danish Property Index and

Real Total Return 21 Source: The Danish Property Federation, IPD Danish Property Index and Sadolin & Albæk Note: 1985 to 2019

The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast Total return for investment properties.

The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics – Consensus Forecast Total return for investment properties. 2011 to 2019 shows the total return form the Danish Property Federation’s market statistics, while it from 2000 to 2010 shows the total return of MSCI Denmark Annual Property Index. 2020 to 2022 shows the average of the replies from the Consensus Forecast. 50 percent of the replies lie within the blue lines. Total return (%) Historic 2019 2020 20221 2020 -2024 7, 8 3, 5 4, 7 5, 1 4, 9 . -1, 9 -0, 5 0, 1 -0, 3 -1, 7 -0, 4 New Change (quarterly) Change (yearly) 2021 - 22 www. ejd. dk/ED MF Source: The Danish Property Federation Market Statistics and MSCI Note: July 2020

Reimbursement Duty Rate in Danish Municipalities 23 Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 2019

Reimbursement Duty Rate in Danish Municipalities 23 Source: Statistics Denmark Note: 2019

Municipalities where the Rent Control Act applies 24 Source: The Landsowners´ Investment Foundation Note:

Municipalities where the Rent Control Act applies 24 Source: The Landsowners´ Investment Foundation Note: 2019 Dark blue is regulated

info@ejd. dk www. ejd. dk Phone number: +45 33 12 03 30 The Danish

info@ejd. dk www. ejd. dk Phone number: +45 33 12 03 30 The Danish Property Federation Nørre Voldgade 2 DK-1358 København K Havnegade 4 DK-8000 Aarhus C