The Current Situation in Egypt and Future Prospect

The Current Situation in Egypt and Future Prospect" Sara Hamouda Ministry of International Cooperation, Egypt

Table of contents �Egypt at a Glance �Evolution of The Egyptian political system since 1952 �Revolution of Jan 25 th ; reasons and context �Transitional period: Feb 2011 - July 2012 �Major political Parties and Associations �June 30 th : Another wave of revolution or Coupe d'état? ? ? � Role of the Military in the current transitional period �Forward looking prospect

Egypt at a Glance Area: 1. 000, 000 km 2 Population: 85 -90. 000 GDP: $256. 7 billion (2012 est. ) GDP real growth rate: 2. 2% GDP per capita: $6, 700 GDP Composition by Sector: agriculture: 14. 7%, industry: 37. 4%, Services: 47. 9%, Tourism: 3. 9% and Suez Canal: 3. 4 % Industrial prod growth rate: 1. 1% Unemployment rate: 13. 5% Inflation rate: 7. 1% Exports: $26. 83 billion Imports: $59. 72 billion

Evolution of The Egyptian political system since 1952: �Egypt has been ruled by the Military since 1952 � 1953 -1976: Authoritarian regime by Nasser… Dissolution of all political parties. � 1967 Israel occupied Sinai and other Arab areas. � 1970 -77: Sadat came to Power and achieved victory against Israel - 1974 -1977: Peace Initiative by Sadat- Camp David Treaty - 1970 -1981: Sadat regime supported political dialogue. adopted the Constitution of 1971 and forming new parties (law of 77) �This law opened the door for a new Multi party system supported by the political and economic liberalization and alliance of USA and Egypt.

Mubarak Regime � 1982 -1995: political stability and economic plans in order to rebuild the country after the assassination of Sadat by the founder of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad. �Political parties represented socialists, democratic and moderate visions. �The Egyptian economy witnessed a drop during the Economic financial crisis in 1997, then the Gov took decision to adopt the privatization policy �During this period, Mubarak succeeded in reconnecting Egypt with the Arab countries, strengthening the relations with the west especially the U. S. A (Egypt supported the 2 Gulf war in 1991 and the War on Terror in 2001).

�Under the pressure of George Bush administration on the Arab regimes including Egypt to promote democratization , certain constitutional amendments were made in order to facilitate funding new political parties and enhance the freedom of expression. �since 2001, several sever phenomena have appeared such as corruption, Nepotism, low level of Education quality and diminishing the labor rights. �In 2005, the Muslim brotherhood representatives won the majority of seats in the parliament since they represent one the oldest political group among others

�Political repression and ultimate power by Minister of Interior affairs. �Egyptian foreign policy was criticized for many reasons ( Africa and Nile crisis, Iraq war and other issues) �Muslims –Christian confrontation due to several attacks on the churches. �A “ hereditary rule” has been promoted for Gamal Mubarak �An obvious conflict between the old and new guards in the NDP Egypt. . ” The Long wait”, The Economist, July 2010

Revolution of January 25 th “ Bread, Freedom and social Justice” �Many youth movements: April 6 th , Kefaya led by George Isaac. “We are All Khaled Said” on FB, and labor protesting movements called people to protest against the political repression and poverty prevail. �Millions of Egyptians went into streets on Jan 25 th (national day of Policemen) to protest against the long state of Emergency , poverty and limiting presidential terms. �Then after Jan 28 th, A wide-ranging coalition of interests, crossing class and ideological boundaries, which agreed on a shared interest in Mubarak departure �On Feb 11 th , Mubarak steeped down and the supreme council of Armed forces ruled the country till June 2012.

Transitional period: Feb 011 -June 2012… Political Fragmentation and Economic setbacks : � 2011: the SCAF announced a provisional constitution to give the opportunity for many parties to be found. (Alwast & Freedom and Justice parties represented the Islamic trend were founded later). �Generally, it strengthened the role of Judiciary Branch , limited the presidential term for 2 times only (article 29) Some important articles: 62: the SCAF will manage the country’s affairs until the parliamentary and presidential elections to be held.

�Economy sharply plummeted: Tourism revenues decreased by 60% while budget deficit has generally increased. �The SCAF refused to go through negotiation with IMF for borrowing loans Threat to National sovereignty �P. M Sharaaf resigned in Nov 2011 and new Gov headed by Alganouri , 80 years old. �Nov 2011: 1 st Parliamentarian elections resulted in the victory of FJP and other islamic parties.

Ganzouri Gov performance under criticism �Fuel crisis and high prices of Goods �Several factional demonstrations �Long debate between Islamic parties, liberal trends and youth movements : the right to strike versus creating a stable environment for business. �FJP sought to cooperate with SCAF in order to pave the way for presidency �Worry about the SCAF role in the transition period.

Muslim brothers held power after decades of Exclusion �The presidential campaign had included several public figures from Mubarak Gov like Ahmed shafiq; Minister of Aviation and P. M till feb 11 th. �The second round of Elections: Morsi Vs Shafiq �Calls to vote for Morsi in order to set back the old regime chances � June 24 th, 2012 Morsi was elected as a president by 51. 7 / Shafiq by 48. 3%.

�USA supported the democratic elections and A new Era of Egyptian-Turkish cooperation was found �Former president Morsi promised through the 100 - Day program to mitigate the burden of Poverty, enhance political dialogue and stability, facilitate the transportation and etc. �However, the first constitutional declaration during his rule (Nov 2012) was considered as a bomb for any political debate.

�“Previous constitutional declarations, laws, and decrees made by the president since he took office on 30 June 2012, until the constitution is approved and a new People’s Assembly [lower house of parliament] is elected, are final and binding and cannot be appealed by any way or to any entity. Nor shall they be suspended or canceled and all lawsuits related to them and brought before any judicial body against these decisions are annulled. ” �No judicial body can dissolve the Shura Council [upper house of parliament] or the Constituent Assembly.

Context of adopting the previous declaration: �the court decided the innocence of all Old regime figures who were in charge of killing revolution protests. �Several terrorist attacks were adopted and killed many Egyptian soldiers in Sinai. �Dissatisfaction from the president performance in many issues especially Nile crisis, cooperation with Hamas and the Syrian issue. �Several Debates about the Egyptian identity and fears of repeating the Iranian Model.

�The declaration led to a state of Polarization in the Egyptian society and political dialogue. �Most Liberal Parties and youth movements protested against the declaration. �The supreme council of Judiciary considered it as an “ unexpected attack” on the judiciary branch independence. �Morsi succeeded in mobilizing several groups against the MBHs beliefs and policies. �There remains a concern among many observers that a persistent failure to address the economic aspects of popular demands could ultimately lead to a second, angrier and hungrier revolution yet to come.

http: //www. youtube. com/watch ? v=13 o. Lh 6 Pz. AWQ

“ Come here Sisi, Morsi Isn’t My president” � On July 3 th, Abdul Fatah Al-sisi, Minister for Defense, announced that Morsi was ousted and the suspension of the constitution for modification. �Adly Mansour, the president of the Supreme constitutional Court currently manages the country’s affairs upon the constitution. �Former president Morsi’s supporters held Rabaa Sit-in from June 28 th till August 14 th. It was forcefully wound up by the police. �Recently, 50 -member Constitution Committee was formed for modifying the constitution. �Amr Moussa, the committee’s president delivered the first draft of the new constitution by last Friday to president Mansour.

New constitution of 2013 �Well written document which covers many issues in the Egyptian society starting from the Intellectual properties right up till fighting Corruption. �Section 5: refers to the political system of the country (legislative, executive and judiciary branches) �Ch 1: the Legislative: Parliament will consist of 450 members- Open the door for youth to participate �Only 5% of members could be appointed by the president �A. (136) President doesn’t have the authority to dissolve the parliament without an obvious clarification , the Parliament’s approval and public referendum

�Chapter 2: Executive: A. 139: President could be elected for two pres. Terms (4 years) - President shouldn't be invloved in any party activities during his presidential term. �Article 151: president doesn’t have the right to call for a war without the approval of both; the National council for defense and two third Majority of the parliament. �A. (200) Minister of Defense is the General command of Armed forces. �A. (233): Minister of defense can’t be ousted without the SCAF approval and this article will be considered for the coming two presidential terms. (8 years)

Challenges and future prospect �Again and a gain, the Military will still a key player or actor in the political dilemma in Egypt. �Political consensus is an urgent requirement to mitigate the burden of economic limitations and political instability �The constitution is considered a good step forward to engage all political powers and groups to be a part of the new political Game

�The newly born political parties either liberals, socialists and others should learn the lesson and try to make a coalition in order to fight the extremist political visions. �Given the fact that Egyptian citizens went into streets for many times during the last 3 years to protest against poverty and corruption , it’s undoubtedly apparent that No new Pharaoh may come to power unless they accept him.

SWOT analysis Strengths Egypt with its strategic location, Human and Natural resources and big market can regain its economic strength after achieving political stability. Weakness Egypt suffers from high percentage of Poverty ( 30% living under poverty line) In addition, Illiteracy accounts 40% and corruption is widely prevailed within the state’s institutions Opportunities Threats All political powers has a golden chance after June 30 th to review its vision toward the country and put the people interests as top priorities. Writing new constitution may enhance the political consensus The lack to achieve political consensus may occur a political disorder and jeopardize the economic recovery. In addition, The fear of coming terrorist attacks or other sit-in to bind the transition period.

Useful links: �http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=13 o. Lh 6 Pz. AWQ �http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=Nw 4 ord. Clbng �http: //www. youtube. com/watch? v=t. Pb. LAn-Npi. U