The Cooling Snowy Winters If a man will

The Cooling, Snowy Winters

"If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts; but if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in certainties. ”— Sir Francis Bacon

Trend = -2. 26 F/20 years or -1. 13 F/decade

Still Colder Winters Ahead? • Cold PDO cold favoring more La Ninas hold temperatures at bay • Warm AMO favors blocking which make winter cold in Eurasia, North America. When the AMO turns cold (2020? ), it will favor more general cold like the 1960 s/1970 s. • The solar entering the a ‘Dalton like’ Minimum would accelerate cooling • High latitude (2007 -2010) volcanoes enhance high latitude blocking (Oman 2004)

Last winter the driver was in the Pacific

1917/18 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

1917/18 Winter Anomalies

Weather. BELL Winter Forecast (11/27/13)

2013/14 Winter Anomalies 2013/14 Winter Coldest Ranking Ironwood, Michigan 1 st Marquette, Michigan 1 st Eau Claire, Wisconsin 1 st Rhinelander, Wisconsin 1 st Oshkosh, Wisconsin 1 st Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin 1 st Munising, Michigan 2 nd Green Bay, Wisconsin 2 nd Wausau, Wisconsin 2 nd Alpena, Michigan 2 nd Houghton Lake, Michigan 2 nd Duluth, Minnesota 2 nd International Falls, Minnesota 2 nd Chicago, Illinois 3 rd Rockford, Illinois 3 rd Mason City, Iowa 3 rd Wheaton, Minnesota 3 rd St. Cloud, Minnesota 4 th Waterloo, Iowa 4 th Flint Michigan 5 th Chicago had its coldest December to March on record - since 1872, Detroit its snowiest – since 1880

2007 UCS Mount Washington Summit The UNH UCS had a special workshop in the late summer of 2007 for state government and industry promising a dire future for the winter sports and maple sugar industry due to warming.

Across almost all of North America, 2007/08 was the best, or one of the best seasons ever for those who enjoy winter sports. Many areas from Alaska across Canada to the West, Midwest and New England reported all-time record snow. Michael Berry, President of the National Ski Areas Association told the AP that “This could very well be the record year”.

Ric Werme, Concord

NOAA

Snowmaggedon Mid-Atlantic

2009/10 All-Time Record Snowfall (in) Previous Record (Year) 79. 9 62. 5" (1995 -1996) 72. 8 61. 9" (1995 -1996) 55. 9 54. 4" (1898 -1899) Wilmington, Del. 66. 7 55. 9" (1995 -1996) Philadelphia 71. 6 65. 5" (1995 -1996) Atlantic City, N. J. 49. 9 46. 9" (1966 -1967) City Baltimore Washington (Dulles International Airport) Washington (Reagan National Airport)

New York City Snow 20

#1 #2 #6 #5 #3 #4

2, 5 2 1, 5 1 0, 5 0 -0, 5 -1 -1, 5 -2 -2, 5 Pacific Decadal Oscillation 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2, 5 2 1, 5 1 0, 5 0 -0, 5 -1 -1, 5 -2 -2, 5 Favors El Nino Favors La Ninas Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Favors –NAO/AO Favors +NAO/AO

Sun’s Scary Slumber

Sun’s Scary Slumber

106, 212 Year Cycles Combine Cliverd 2007 Cycle 5 Cycle 24

Paralleling Cycle 5 (1798)

Niagara Falls 1911 and 2014

The New York Times reports today that Great Lakes are… “now abruptly on the rise, a development that has startled scientists…”

Dalton Minimum Early 1800 s 2008/09/10/11/12/13

Lower geomagnetic means -NAO/AO Increased cosmic rays mean more low clouds (higher albedo) Lower solar flux means lower UV (68%) which means expanded polar vortex More amplified patterns and higher persistence

Ocean PDO+AMO US Annual Temps Solar TSI Both sun and oceans suggest cooling

“Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contract…in exchange for public funding. “ Jane Lubchenco, 1999 AAAS President (later NOAA Administrator)