The Colorado Drought of 2002 in Perspective Colorado

The Colorado Drought of 2002 in Perspective Colorado Climate Center Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http: //climate. atmos. colostate. edu 1

Known Characteristics of Drought ► Drought teases Colorado often ► Some portion of the state is in drought, based on common definitions and popular drought indices in at least 9 out of every 10 years 2

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Severe Drought Occurrences ► Severe multiyear and widespread droughts occur a few times per century as evidenced by precipitation and stream flow records back into the 1880 s, but also centuries farther back in history as revealed by tree rings and other "paleo“ indicators. Thru 1999 only 4

The Path to the Drought of 2002 ► In hindsight, the 2002 first started with a dry fall and early winter in 1999 ► Then temperatures in 2000 were very warm 5

Spring of 2000 ► ► ► The months of April - June 2000 were very dry and hot. Sedgwick and Phillips counties were especially hard hit, and agricultural impacts were severe. Some later summer moisture did fall that helped dryland agriculture. Range and pasture conditions deteriorated steadily Entire summer was warmer than average -- the warmest summer in many years. Some severe ag. Impacts in Eastern Colo. Growing Season Precipitation as a % of Average 6

The 2002 Drought ► Monthly evolution § By the end of 2001 Water Year soils were dry and reservoirs down to 93% of average (statewide) 7

January 2002 % of Average 8

March 2002 % of Average ► March was very dry but cold temperature made it seem less “droughty” 9

Drought Status on April 1, 2002 ► Entire State Dry ► Statewide Snowpack § 53% of Average ► Bad, but not as bad as 1977 ► Optimism for a wet spring – especially in Northern Colorado 10

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April 1 Snowpack From the NRCS Snow Survey Division. 12

April 2002 % of Average 13

May 2002 also failed us ► Only one significant storm ► High evaporation rates ► Severe drought arrived !! 14

June 2002 % of Average 15

By late June 2002 Raging wildfires ► Extreme low streamflows ► Rapidly depleted reservoirs ► Severe agricultural impacts § Wheat § Cattle § Irrigated crops in jeopardy ► Intense heat ► Urban water restrictions ► Hayman Fire Largest in Recent History 16

July 2002 % of Average 17

Widespread Drought By late July 2002, Colorado near epicenter of extensive regional drought ► Parts of nearly every state experiencing drought ► 18

U. S. Drought Most Widespread Since 1950 s 19

August 2002 Pattern Changes ► More extreme heat early ► Another wildfire flare up ► Severe storms late in August ► Real relief in portions of the Eastern Plains ► But most of Colorado still in extreme drought Steamboat Springs Fire Photo from Steamboat Springs Fire Department 20

August 2002 % of Average 21

September 2002 Wet Weather at Last! 22

2002 Water Year in Summary ► Dry all parts of State ► Dry all seasons ► Steamflows lowest on record for many rivers ► Record summer heat ► Very high evaporation rates ► Far-reaching impacts from minor inconveniences to extreme economic hardship 23

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Oct-Sept. 2002 WY % of Average 25

May-Sept 2002 Growing Season as Percent of Average 26

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Dec. – Feb. 2003 Temperature Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 31

Dec. – Feb. 2003 Precipitation Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 32

Mar. – May 2003 Temperature Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 33

Mar. – May 2003 Precipitation Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 34

June – Aug. 2003 Temperature Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 35

June – Aug. 2003 Precipitation Outlook http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill. html 36