The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Note Natural

The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Pre-transition • Fluctuating high birth rate and death rates • Very high fertility (+8 kids) due to high infant mortality rates • Natural increase is stable • Births=deaths (stable population) • Pre-industrial phase (agricultural based economy, low level of technology (hunter/gatherer)) • Low life expectancy • Population is mainly rural • No countries are here anymore (core countries – pre 1800’s, periphery pre-1950)

Early-transition • • • Birth rate still very high, but declining (5 -6+ kids) Sharp decline in death rate large natural increase leads to population explosion Start of death control Death rates drop due to acceptance of germ theory - small lifestyle changes can prevent disease: personal sanitation (handwashing), clean drinking water, pest control (mosquito nets), waste/sewage disposal • Increase in life expectancy due to healthier lifestyle • Agriculture still dominant economic activity/rural population • Core countries early 1800’s, periphery early 1900’s

Late-transition • sharp decline in birth rates; fertility rates drop to 3 -4 • low death rates continue • natural increase declines (therefore population explosion tapers off at end of late-transition when BR and DR come closer to one another) • Start of birth control • Shift from agricultural to industrial based economy • More people now living in urban areas (fewer needed on farms due to shift in economy – urban boom starts) • Life expectancy continues to increase • Core late 1800’s/early 1900’s, and periphery mid-late 1900’s

Post-transition • Low but equal birth and death rates • Fertility rates are at or slightly above replacement rates (2. 1) • Natural increase stable or starting to decline • Stable population with low birth/death rates • Post-industrial service based economy • Majority of people live in cities • Core 1970’s onward, periphery not here yet

Stage 5 Post-Post transition? ? • • Declining population Death rate is higher than birth rate Fertility below 2. 1 Great many older people (and some big problems in the future)