The Black Swan the turkey and the bell

The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell curve

For our turkey, Every day is a good day

…UNTIL the highly improbable occurs. . . An outlier? Yes Extreme impact? Yes Retrospective hindsight? Yes Thanksgiving is the turkey’s Black Swan event!

Bell Curves Frequency

Bell curves help to hide black swans The Experiment • Toss 10 identical coins (Heads/Tails) • Note results • Repeat 999 other times • Plot results on Bell Curve

Bell Curves Frequency What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Black Swan territory No seismic activity Medium size Catastrophic Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable”

Bell Curves Frequency What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Black Swan territory Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable” 6

So What? § We want to avoid being the turkey! § § The past doesn’t prepare us for the future § § Avoid the temptation to revert to “ABC Agency always provides XYZ after a disaster” We can’t predict the future, nor Black Swan events, but they will happen § § No one agency can do this alone Pre-event coordination is critical! By focusing on the “most likely” events, we’re blind to Black Swans

What can we do about it? § § Turn Black Swans into white swans by § Identifying areas of vulnerability § Addressing areas of vulnerability Continuously adapting to avoid becoming the turkey

How do you make sure there are no gaps in the jar? ? ? 9

10

Why Partner with Voluntary, Faith-Based and Community Based Organizations ? § Understanding local needs § Flexible § High impact / low cost Avoid becoming the turkey!

Avoid Predictable Surprises