The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status
- Slides: 13
The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 December 2008 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1
Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2
Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days The CMAP precipitation dataset shows that, during the past 90 days, above normal precipitation occurred over most of the tropical Indian Ocean, the maritime continent, southern East Asia, and the waters east of Japan. Precipitation was below normal over India, southeastern Indo-China peninsula, tropical northwestern Pacific, and northeastern Asia. 3
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation occurred over most of the regions within 10 S-10 N eastern Indian Ocean and maritime continent, and the South China Sea. Below normal precipitation was observed over the Arabian Sea, northeastern India, southeastern Asia, subtropical northwestern Pacific, northeastern East Asia, northwestern Asia, and subtropical central southern Indian Ocean. 4
Rainfall Patterns: Last 5 Days Rainfall was below normal over the tropical Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and tropical western Pacific. Above normal precipitation was observed over tropical eastern Indian Ocean, eastern Indonesia, and subtropical northwestern Pacific. 5
Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes *This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. • (top right) After a season with below-normal monsoon rainfall, southeastern Indo-China experienced above normal precipitation in the past month. • (middle panel) Rainfall has been clearly above normal over the maritime continent during this transitional season from summer to winter. • (bottom panel) Near normal monsoon rainfall seems to appear over northern Australia after a period of persistently below normal rainfall. 6
Atmospheric Circulation At the lower troposphere, strong easterlies and westerlies were observed over tropical Asia and equatorial Indian Ocean, respectively. The stronger than normal easterlies over tropical western Pacific, and the strong winter monsoon flow over eastern China. In addition, an anomalous cyclonic pattern appeared over western Australia. 7
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8
Predictions of Australian Monsoon • Upper panel: Australian monsoon index (Hung and Yanai 2004) defined as mean U 850 over 15 S-2. 5 S, 110 E 150 E. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that the Australian monsoon circulation will be fluctuating around normal in the next two weeks. • Lower panel: Correlation between precipitation and the Australian monsoon index (Hung and Yanai 2004; shading) and regression of 850 -mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for 9 December.
Summary • In the past week, rainfall was below normal over the tropical Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal, and tropical western Pacific. Above normal precipitation was observed over eastern Indonesia, and subtropical northwestern Pacific. • The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that the Australian monsoon circulation will be fluctuating around normal in the next two weeks. 10
Retreat of Asian Summer Monsoon 11
Onset of Australian Monsoon 12
Climatology 13
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