The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 01, 2021 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to mostly above normal over much of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, in and around Kashmir/India, southern peninsular India, Bangladesh, Burma, and much of South China Sea countries. Rainfall was also at near to above normal levels over all of Indonesian maritime continent as well as especially over the Philippines. But large parts of interior western and northeastern Australia, as well as southeastern China, Korea and Japan had received much less than normal rainfall. This past 2020 NE winter monsoon season (Oct-Dec) over southern 3 India, which sometimes crossing into January, has been very good rainfall wise.

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the rainfall patterns over

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the rainfall patterns over the region are almost similar to the 90 days pattern with rainfall amounts received mostly above normal across the region except in large parts of northern Australia and southeastern China. Even though the winter northeast monsoon rainfall season over southern India ends in December, deep southern peninsular India got 4 more rainfall this winter season, and rainfall here was plentiful.

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall continues to move

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall continues to move away from India into equatorial southeast Asia and northern Australia, where the amounts were mixed across the region. Particularly, rainfall has been below normal over northeastern Australia, but slightly above normal over deep 5 southeastern part of the continent.

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to mostly

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to mostly above normal over much of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, in and around Kashmir/India, southern peninsular India, Bangladesh, Burma, and much of South China Sea countries. Rainfall was also at near to above normal levels over all of Indonesian maritime continent as well as especially over the Philippines. But large parts of interior western and northeastern Australia, as well as southeastern China, Korea and Japan had received much less than normal rainfall. This past 2020 NE winter monsoon season (Oct-Dec) over southern India, which sometimes crossing into January, has been very good rainfall wise. For the past 30 days, the rainfall patterns over the region are almost similar to the 90 days pattern with rainfall amounts received mostly above normal across the region except in large parts of northern Australia and southeastern China. Even though the winter northeast monsoon rainfall season over southern India ends in December, deep southern peninsular India got more rainfall this winter season, and rainfall here was plentiful In this past week, monsoon rainfall continues to move away from India into equatorial southeast Asia and northern Australia, where the amounts were mixed across the region. Particularly, rainfall has been below normal over northeastern Australia, but slightly above normal over deep southeastern part of the continent. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts a relatively similar rainfall anomaly pattern as has been observed over the last couple of weeks. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13

Climatology 13

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