The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 16, 2013 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across central India, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and northern Australia, but below normal especially over parts of southern India, eastern China, Japan, Korea, Laos, Vietnam and interior central and eastern Australia. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30 -day anomalous rainfall pattern shows relatively good improvement from the 90 -day picture with either near or above normal over the entire region except over Japan and over southeastern Australia. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week rainfall is above normal over southern China and Burma, below normal over northern Australia and about near normal elsewhere in the region. 5

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 6

Atmospheric Circulation 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall has been generally above normal across central India, Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and northern Australia, but below normal especially over parts of southern India, eastern China, Japan, Korea, Laos, Vietnam and interior central and eastern Australia. The 30 -day anomalous rainfall pattern shows relatively good improvement from the 90 -day picture with either near or above normal over the entire region except over Japan and over southeastern Australia. This past week rainfall is above normal over southern China and Burma, below normal over northern Australia and about near normal elsewhere in the region. For the next two weeks NCEP GFS model predicts generally below normal rainfall over much of the monsoon region, particularly over southern India and northern Australia. 9

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 10

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 11

Climatology 12