The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 22, 2018 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon officially ending in September below normal rainfall deficits dominated much of central and western India extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region in interior central eastern China, Thailand, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of central and northeastern India, coastal eastern China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia and New Guinea. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal over much of the region especially along coastal eastern India and northeast India. The other monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is expected to be onset over southern India in this upcoming week according to the India Met. Dept. Also according to IMD since the first of October till today, All India Rainfall has been 48% below normal, but deep southern India’s rainfall has been in excess. . 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, with the summer monsoon officially ending in September below normal rainfall deficits dominated much of central and western India extending into parts of Pakistan, a small region in interior central eastern China, Thailand, southeastern Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Elsewhere, the rainfall amounts received were at normal to slightly above normal levels, particularly in Bangladesh, Burma, Japan, Cambodia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. For the past 30 days, severe rainfall deficits are noted across large parts of central and northeastern India, coastal eastern China, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, large parts of Indonesian islands, Malaysia and New Guinea. Overall, less (than normal) rainfall fell across the region. In this past week, rainfall amounts are generally below normal over much of the region especially along coastal eastern India and northeast India. The other monsoon over India, termed the Northeast Winter monsoon (Oct-Dec) is expected to be onset over southern India in this upcoming week according to the India Met. Dept. Also according to IMD since the first of October till today, All India Rainfall has been 48% below normal, but deep southern India’s rainfall has been in excess. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts generally below normal rainfall over almost the entire monsoon region, except over southeastern China in the first week. . 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13