The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 26, 2019 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall mixed over the while region with above and below normal regions scattered throughout. But the above normal areas outweigh the below normal areas except over the Indonesian islands and coastal northeastern China. However, the rainfall amounts over southeastern Australia was below normal. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts were generally in excess across the region except over the foothills of the Himalayas, southeastern China, Indonesia and over southeastern Australia. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall over India was mostly near to below normal across the region especially below normal over eastern China, west central India and the Indonesian islands. As of today since the first of June, the India Met. Dept. reported that the overall All India Monsson Rainfall amounts were just about the long term 5 mean (+1%).

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall mixed over the while region with above and below normal regions scattered throughout. But the above normal areas outweigh the below normal areas except over the Indonesian islands and coastal northeastern China. However, the rainfall amounts over southeastern Australia was below normal. For the past 30 days the rainfall amounts were generally in excess across the region except over the foothills of the Himalayas, southeastern China, Indonesia and over southeastern Australia. In this past week, rainfall over India was mostly near to below normal across the region especially below normal over eastern China, west central India and the Indonesian islands. As of today since the first of June, the India Met. Dept. reported that the overall All India Monsson Rainfall amounts were just about at the long term mean (+1%) levels. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts above normal rainfall over central and western India, and over the South China countries, but below normal rainfall over southern interior China and Indonesia. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13