The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 27, 2015 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall pattern has been mixed, with above normal rainfall eastern India/Burma and eastern parts of China and below normal elsewhere. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal everywhere except along northern and northeastern India, parts of Burma and to a small extent along east coast of China. A clear disparity with above normal rainfall in the north and below normal rainfall pattern in the south India has emerged so far. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1 st of June, as of today, is now 4 % below normal. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week the southwest monsoon rainfall was somewhat above normal along pasts of central western India, Burma and eastern China. Elsewhere it was below normal. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days rainfall pattern has been mixed, with above normal rainfall over eastern India/Burma and eastern parts of China and below normal elsewhere. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably below normal everywhere except along northern and northeastern India, parts of Burma and to a small extent along east coast of China. A clear disparity with above normal rainfall in the north and below normal rainfall pattern in the south India has emerged so far. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), the SW summer monsoon rainfall over India as whole since the 1 st of June, as of today, is now 4 % below normal. In this past week the southwest monsoon rainfall was somewhat above normal along pasts of central western India, Burma and eastern China. Elsewhere it was below normal. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over parts of central and northern India. Elsewhere below normal rainfall is predicted. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13