The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 07, 2015 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. It is interesting to note that for the past 90 days, unlike other parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal 3 or above normal levels of rainfall.

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably above normal over southeastern India and southeastern China, and over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus China region is at near or above normal levels of received rainfall. The Northeast Winter monsoon has brought a lot of rain to southern India, particularly the southern most state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri Lanka. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or slightly below normal levels except over some parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. The NE monsoon rains along coastal southeastern Indian state of Tamilnadu is at above normal level. Southeastern China has also received a lot of rainfall. This rainfall pattern has been continuing for a few weeks now. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts have generally been below normal over many parts of India, across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, particularly over Indonesia, Papa New Guinea, Malaysia, Laos, Vietnam, and Thailand reasonably consistent with the ongoing strong El Nino conditions. Australia is also relatively dry. However, parts of southeastern India, Sri Lanka, and large parts of southeastern China have received above normal rainfall amounts. It is interesting to note that for the past 90 days, unlike other parts of SE Asia, almost entire China is at normal or above normal levels of rainfall. For the past 30 days, rainfall was considerably above normal over southeastern India and southeastern China, and over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. Also for the past 30 days, the vast India plus China region is at near or above normal levels of received rainfall. The Northeast Winter monsoon has brought a lot of rain to southern India, particularly the southern most state of India, the Tamilnadu and across Sri Lanka. In this past week, rainfall over the entire region was generally at or slightly below normal levels except over some parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. The NE monsoon rains along coastal southeastern Indian state of Tamilnadu is at above normal level. Southeastern China has also received a lot of rainfall. This rainfall pattern over SE India and China has been continuing for a few weeks now. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is also predicting somewhat active Northeast Monsoon along coastal southern state of Tamilnadu and more rainfall over southeast China as well as over parts of Malaysia and Indonesia. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13