The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 05, 2018 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over Afghanistan, along the east coast of India bordering the Bay of Bengal, Papua New Guinea, and over the eastern two thirds of Australia especially in the northern parts therein. Elsewhere small broken pockets of below normal precip regions remain. However, over Indonesia, the Philippine islands, Malaysia, and over the south China Sea region countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand the precip is above normal to near normal levels. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall amounts were generally at near or slightly above normal levels across the region, except over Papua New Guinea, southeastern China, and over northwestern Australia. Western Australia got its monthly rainfall amounts for the period. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall anomalies over the region were generally weak, with slightly above normal rainfall over east central Australia and below normal rainfall over northwestern parts of the continent. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, below normal rainfall deficits remain over Afghanistan, along the east coast of India bordering the Bay of Bengal, Papua New Guinea, and over the eastern two thirds of Australia especially in the northern parts therein. Elsewhere small broken pockets of below normal precip regions remain. However, over Indonesia, the Philippine islands, Malaysia, and over the south China Sea region countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand the precip is at above normal to near normal levels. For the past 30 days, rainfall amounts were generally at near or slightly above normal levels across the region, except over Papua New Guinea, southeastern China, and over northwestern Australia. Western Australia got its monthly rainfall amounts for the period. In this past week, rainfall anomalies over the region were generally weak, with slightly above normal rainfall over east central Australia and below normal rainfall over northwestern parts of the continent. In the upcoming two weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting a mixed rainfall pattern over the region with some relief in sight for some parts of the drought region in east central Australia, and continued below normal for southeastern China. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13