The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 03, 2020 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of northern India, and above normal over north eastern India, Nepal, Bangladesh and western Burma. Above normal rainfall was also observed over central eastern China, and across Indonesia. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were near to below normal, particularly far southwestern south China and South China sea countries. For India as a while, since the official 3 just start of monsoon reason on 1 June, ending Aug 3, the cumulative monsoon rains received is about normal (-1. 6%) according to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) based on preliminary reports.

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall pattern is characterized by near to above normal rainfall over Nepal, northeastern India, Bangladesh and central/eastern China. Below to much below normal rainfall is noted along coastal south China, interior South China Sea countries and 4 along central India.

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, below normal rainfall is received in central India and along a northsouth section of central China. Elsewhere rainfall amounts received were at near normal levels. Almost no rainfall fell over Australia, except along its southeast and southwest coasts. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near to above normal over Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of northern India, and above normal over north eastern India, Nepal, Bangladesh and western Burma. Above normal rainfall was also observed over central eastern China, and across Indonesia. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were near to below normal, particularly far southwestern south China and South China sea countries. For India as a while, since the official start of monsoon reason on 1 June, ending Aug 3, the cumulative monsoon rains received is just about normal (-1. 6%) according to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) based on preliminary reports. For the past 30 days, rainfall pattern is characterized by near to above normal rainfall over Nepal, northeastern India, Bangladesh and central/eastern China. Below to much below normal rainfall is noted along coastal south China, interior South China Sea countries and along central India. In this past week, below normal rainfall is received in central India and along a north-south section of central China. Elsewhere rainfall amounts received were at near normal levels. Almost no rainfall fell over Australia, except along its southeast and southwest coasts. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts below normal rainfall across a band of region centered around 25 deg. N extending east-west approximately extending from central India to the Pacific coast of southeastern China. Near to mostly above normal rainfall is forecast over southern peninsular India, Burma, extending into South China Sea countries. A mixed rainfall pattern is forecast over Indonesian islands. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13

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