The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 27, 2016 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern peninsular India and over large parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern China. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall was below normal over Queensland northeastern Australia. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, as predicted last week, tropical storm Yvette brought heavy rainfall to northwestern Australia. Coastal eastern China continues to receive above normal rainfall. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with the Northeast winter monsoon(OND) ending, the rainfall for southern India continues to stay highly deficient by about -40 % (latest % not available) across the country. With the failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe 5 drought conditions continue exist in the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu.

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, severe rainfall deficits remain over southern peninsular India and over large parts of central, northern and eastern Australia. Elsewhere, the rainfall is above normal levels over much of the region, especially eastern China. For the past 30 days the rainfall was below normal over Queensland northeastern Australia. In this past week, as predicted last week, tropical storm Yvette brought heavy rainfall to northwestern Australia. Coastal eastern China continues to receive above normal rainfall. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), with the Northeast winter monsoon(OND) ending, the rainfall for southern India continues to stay highly deficient by about -40 % (latest % not available) across the country. With the failure of the winter monsoon so far, severe drought conditions continue exist in the southern India especially in the state of Tamilnadu. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall for northern and eastern parts of Australia and eastern China in the second week. . 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13