The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 26, 2016 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, as the summer monsoon season is winding down, rainfall amounts are showing an overall mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly excess rainfall across parts of central and northeastern India, Burma, Laos and Vietnam, near normal rainfall across most of China, and Indonesia, but below normal rainfall over southern peninsular India, central eastern China, and Papua New Guinea. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is again a mixed pattern with below normal pattern over north central and southern India, and central eastern China. Elsewhere the rainfall is near normal or slightly above. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India and southeastern China. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1 st of June, the monsoon rainfall continues to stay slightly deficient by about -3 % across the country, as the summer monsoon slowly begins to recede from continental India. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days, as the summer monsoon season is winding down, rainfall amounts are showing an overall mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly excess rainfall across parts of central and northeastern India, Burma, Laos and Vietnam, near normal rainfall across most of China, and Indonesia, but below normal rainfall over southern peninsular India, central eastern China, and Papua New Guinea. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is again a mixed pattern with below normal pattern over north central and southern India, and central eastern China. Elsewhere the rainfall is near normal or slightly above. In this past week, monsoon rainfall was deficient over southern India and southeastern China. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1 st of June, the monsoon rainfall continues to stay slightly deficient by about -3 % across the country, as the summer monsoon slowly begins to recede from continental India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting slightly above rainfall across parts of central India, heavy rainfall over southeastern China in the first week, continued below normal rainfall over southern India, and near normal rainfall elsewhere. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13