The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 01, 2016 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western, particularly the state of Gujarat, and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere. Eastern China near and west of Shanghai had received much above normal rainfall. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Gujarat and central eastern India, southern and northeastern China and Japan. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal levels. Parts of eastern China recoreded above normal rainfall. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally below normal over east central India, and across entire eastern China. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far (June+July) the monsoon rainfall has been near normal by about +1 % across the country. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9

Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western, particularly the state of Gujarat, and central eastern India, Thailand, Laos, and Cambodia, and parts of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere. Eastern China near and west of Shanghai had received much above normal rainfall. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was deficient over Gujarat and central eastern India, southern and northeastern China and Japan. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal levels. Parts of eastern China recoreded above normal rainfall. In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally below normal over east central India, and across entire eastern China. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far (June+July) the monsoon rainfall has been near normal by about +1 % across the country. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal over parts of northern and central India and eastern China. Elsewhere the model predicts above normal rainfall. Typhoon Nida is threatening immediate landfall over southern China. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13