The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 26, 2020 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near normal over much of Iran, Afghanistan and above normal in Pakistan, which normally does not receive much rainfall. For India and rest of southeast Asia, except for some parts of north central India, overall, the rainfall amounts received so far has also been above normal. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were below normal across southern Australia. So far, the region has received a good excess rainfall over very large parts of the monsoon region. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall pattern is characterized by above normal rainfall over south central and northeast India, whereas it is below normal over northcentral and deep southern coastal India. Elsewhere the rainfall is generally at above or near normal levels. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall was above normal across south central India and over South China Sea countries. Elsewhere, the rainfall was generally mixed across the region. The summer southwest monsoon over the whole of India ended earlier, and the other winter northeast monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India is about to begin its onset any day now, according to the India Met. Dept. announcement. 5

Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind. 6

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 8

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 Processing Issues!! 9

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall pattern was overall near normal over much of Iran, Afghanistan and above normal in Pakistan, which normally does not receive much rainfall. For India and rest of southeast Asia, except for some parts of north central India, overall, the rainfall amounts received so far has also been above normal. Elsewhere the rainfall amounts were below normal across southern Australia. So far, the region has received a good excess rainfall over very large parts of the monsoon region. For the past 30 days, rainfall pattern is characterized by above normal rainfall over south central and northeast India, whereas it is below normal over northcentral and deep southern coastal India. Elsewhere the rainfall is generally at above or near normal levels. In this past week, rainfall was above normal across south central India and over South China Sea countries. Elsewhere, the rainfall was generally mixed across the region. The summer southwest monsoon over the whole of India ended earlier, and the other winter northeast monsoon (Oct-Dec) over southern India is about to begin its onset any day now, according to the India Met. Dept. announcement. For the next two weeks, the NCEP GFS model forecasts widespread below normal rainfall across the region, except for above normal rainfall over South China Sea countries. 10

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12

Climatology 13

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