The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 27, 2014 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall amounts over all of India except in the northeast and almost over all of China except in the region bordering Burma is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northwestern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries, rainfall has been below normal. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, the rainfall picture is relatively very similar to the 90 -day picture, except over northwestern Australia, where it is near normal. Also southeastern China has received above normal rainfall during this time. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the Orissa border in India and south eastern China received spotty excess rainfall. Other than this, all across the south and east Asia region, especially the countries in the south China Sea region received below normal rainfall. The India Met. Dept. (IMD) forecast that the onset of 2014 SW summer monsoon over India along the Kerala border will likely occur on June 5 th (+/- 4 days) compared to the normal 5 onset date on June 1 st.

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 6

Atmospheric Circulation 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall amounts over all of India except in the northeast and almost over all of China except in the region bordering Burma, is at near or slightly above normal levels. However, northwestern Australia, Koreas, Japan, and over major parts of southeast Asian countries, rainfall has been below normal. For the past 30 days, the rainfall picture is relatively very similar to the 90 -day picture, except over northwestern Australia, where it is near normal. Also southeastern China has received above normal rainfall during this time. In this past week, the Orissa border in India and south eastern China received spotty excess rainfall. Other than this, all across the south and east Asia region, especially the countries in the south China Sea region received below normal rainfall. The India Met. Dept. (IMD) forecast that the onset of 2014 SW summer monsoon over India along the Kerala border will likely occur on June 5 th (+/- 4 days) compared to the normal onset date on June 1 st. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model predicts above normal rainfall over northeastern India, northern Burma, and adjoining southern China and below normal rainfall elsewhere. 9

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 10

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 11

Climatology 12