The AsianAustralian Monsoon System Recent Evolution Current Status

Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days, most of southeast Asia

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30 -day precipitation anomaly pattern is normal to

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past week, heavy localized rain fell near

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

Summary During the last 90 days, most of southeast Asia and the Australian continent

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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 2, 2012 For more information, visit: http: //www. cpc. ncep. noaa. gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons. shtml 1

Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology 2

Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days, most of southeast Asia and the Australian continent received near to above normal seasonal rainfall except over southern China and western Australia, where some dryness is beginning to develop. 3

Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30 -day precipitation anomaly pattern is normal to above normal over much of southeast Asia in general, except over parts of southeastern China and eastern Australia. 4

Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past week, heavy localized rain fell near northeast India, Bangladesh, and near southeastern China. NCEP/GFS model forecast of this past week’s rainfall made at the beginning of last week. 5

Rainfall Time Series over 5 x 5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 6

Atmospheric Circulation 7

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 8

Summary During the last 90 days, most of southeast Asia and the Australian continent received near to above normal seasonal rainfall except over southern China and western Australia, where some dryness is beginning to develop. The 30 -day precipitation anomaly pattern is normal to above normal over much of southeast Asia in general, except over parts of southeastern China and eastern Australia. During the past week, heavy localized rain fell near northeast India, Bangladesh, and near southeastern China. In the upcoming couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting above normal rainfall over Southern Burma, over “Irian Jaya” of Indonesia along the Papa New Guinea border as well as over Bangladesh in the second week. 9

Demise of the Asian Monsoon 10

Onset of the Australian Monsoon 11

Climatology 12